First place in the AFC South is on the line in H-Town, where the Houston Texans host the Indianapolis Colts. Indianapolis is coming off a home win over the Miami Dolphins, while the Texans look for the season sweep of the Colts, which would give them a huge advantage in the division race. Here are our picks and predictions from Fantasy Analysts Kyle Soppe and Jason Katz and Chief Content Officer David Bearman.
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Oct. 25, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated.
Colts at Texans (-5, 46) Odds and Betting Lines, 1 p.m. ET
Soppe: These two teams played in Week 1, a 29-27 Texans win. In that game, Nico Collins (six catches for 117 yards) helped open things up for Joe Mixon to run for 159 yards and a score. In that game, Houston had the ball for four minutes, won the turnover battle, and cashed in all its red-zone trips … the Texans won by two points.
The score was impacted by a pair of Anthony Richardson bombs, but that’s part of the risk you run when fading the Colts. Road teams have covered 16 of the past 23 AFC South divisional games (69.6%), and I’m worried about this Texans offense when it comes to covering a number like this.
C.J. Stroud ranks second in EPA per dropback against man coverage (0.36) but only 24th against zone (-0.11). The Colts play zone coverage at the third-highest rate of any defense (78.7%).
Pick: Colts +5
Stats and Insights: Fantasy, Betting, and Other Notes
Indianapolis Colts
Team: One team this season is giving away at least five minutes in time of possession per game, and it’s the Colts (-7:34 per game).
QB: Richardson’s 48.5% completion percentage is the lowest through a team’s first seven games since Josh Freeman in 2013.
Offense: The Colts are allowing pressure on just 27.9% of dropbacks, the third-lowest rate in the league.
Defense: Indianapolis has allowed a touchdown on just 2.2% of deep passes, the fourth-lowest rate in the league.
Fantasy: Tyler Goodson has finished each of the past three weeks as the RB33 or better (Trey Sermon has finished worse than that in the past two weeks).
Betting: The Colts are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games with a projected point total north of 45 points.
Houston Texans
Team: A win would be Houston’s third straight over Indianapolis, tying its longest win streak ever vs. the Colts (also done from 2015-16).
QB: Stroud ranks second in EPA per dropback against man coverage (0.36) but only 24th against zone (-0.11). The Colts play zone coverage at the third-highest rate of any defense (78.7%).
Offense: The Texans allowed a 51.7% pressure rate in Sunday’s loss to the Green Bay Packers, their second-highest in Stroud’s 22 career starts.
DeMeco Ryans explains that most of the OL communication issues have shown up in loud road environments. Also says they expect the Colts to try & use stunts too.
I’m confident we will fix communication issues, but will be a major concern in a road playoff game. https://t.co/udCbLZI7vG pic.twitter.com/hjGuHpJqvH
— Houston Stressans (@TexansCommenter)
Defense: The Texans have allowed a touchdown on a league-high 7% of opponent passes.
Fantasy: Collins was injured on Stroud’s way to a second straight game with over 330 passing yards and has now missed two games on injured reserve — Stroud has 278 yards through the air in those contests. In Weeks 1-5, Stroud completed 51.2% of his 8.2 deep pass attempts per game and was threatening defenses vertically consistently. Since then, he’s at 36.4% on 5.5 attempts per game.
Betting: Unders are 9-4 since the start of 2020 when the Texans host a divisional opponent (69.2%).
