The Houston Texans are coming off a Texas-sized disappointment in prime time last week, wasting a 16-point halftime lead in a loss at home to the Detroit Lions.
The good news, though, is they remain atop their division and have time to improve their standing in the AFC playoff chase.
Here’s a closer look at where the Texans fit in the AFC playoff picture after they defeated the Dallas Cowboys in Week 11.
Can the Texans Make the Playoffs?
After all the action in Week 11, the Houston Texans are 7-4 and now have an 87.7% chance to make the playoffs.
They have a 0.3% chance for the 1 seed, a 2.1% chance for the second seed, a 9.7% chance for the third seed, a 69.4% chance for the fourth seed, a 0.7% chance for the fifth seed, a 1.6% chance for the sixth seed, and a 3.9% chance for the seventh seed.
Can the Texans Win the AFC South?
Here’s what the AFC South race looks like after all the Sunday action in Week 11:
- The Houston Texans have an 81.4% chance to win the AFC South.
- The Indianapolis Colts have a 16.9% chance to win the AFC South.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have a 0.4% chance to win the AFC South.
- The Tennessee Titans have a 1.3% chance to win the AFC South.
Current AFC South Standings
- Houston Texans (7-4)
- Indianapolis Colts (5-6)
- Tennessee Titans (2-8)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9)
Texans’ Super Bowl Chances in Week 11
Can the Texans win the Super Bowl? The PFN Playoff Predictor projects that Houston has a 3.3% chance to win it all.
Texans’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 11: at Dallas Cowboys (Monday Night)
- Week 12: vs. Tennessee Titans
- Week 13: at Jacksonville Jaguars
- Week 14: BYE
- Week 15: vs. Miami Dolphins
- Week 16: at Kansas City Chiefs
- Week 17: vs. Baltimore Ravens
- Week 18: at Tennessee Titans
What PFN Predicted for the Texans vs. Cowboys Matchup
Houston typically plays little brother to the Dallas Cowboys, but the 2024 season has been a disappointment in Big D. Now, Houston can essentially put their in-state adversary’s season on ice on Monday Night Football in Week 11.
To do so, though, the Texans must figure out what went wrong in the second half last Sunday night against the Lions. After taking a 23-7 lead into the locker room at halftime, the Texans came out lame in the third quarter and eventually surrendered their lead in a 26-23 defeat.
While the defense has plenty of blame to claim for Houston, most eyes will be on the offense and quarterback C.J. Stroud since they went scoreless in the final two quarters against the Lions. In fairness, the Texans have been without their top two wideouts of late, with Nico Collins yet to return from a hamstring injury that’s cost him the last five games and Stefon Diggs out for the rest of the season with an ACL tear.
Even with Collins poised to return, Houston will likely look to the ground game and Joe Mixon to get the offense back on track. Mixon was a priority free agent signing this offseason and has not disappointed in his first season with the squad. Mixon has surpassed the 100-yard rushing mark in five of his last six games, and he has seven rushing touchdowns despite missing three games this season with an ankle injury.
On defense, Houston has been especially sound against the pass. They rank No. 3 in yards per attempt allowed at 6.4 and No. 7 in passer rating allowed (79.1) and sacks (29). Also, only three defenses have more takeaways than Houston’s 18.
Houston is currently listed as a 7.5-point favorite over Dallas; the game total sits at 42.0.
PFN Prediction: Texans 31, Cowboys 17