The NFL is back… well, sort of. The Hall of Fame Game marks the beginning of the NFL preseason and the next step on the countdown to the return of competitive football.
While we’re not likely to see many stars on show when the Houston Texans and Chicago Bears face off in Canton at Tom Benson Stadium, we will see two NFL teams hit the field, which is worth celebrating. It also presents our first opportunity since last year’s Super Bowl to bet on the NFL and get immediate returns, compared to the long-term game of making futures bets.
Now when it comes to preseason NFL games, analyzing betting markets becomes less about trends (unless you’re talking about the Baltimore Ravens) and more about narratives. In this game, that is especially prevalent because Matt Eberflus and DeMeco Ryans have a combined nine preseason games as head coaches.
With that in mind, let’s examine the odds for the 2024 Hall of Fame Game and which narratives could be involved in tonight’s game.
Houston Texans vs. Chicago Bears Odds and Preview
- Spread: Texans -1 (-115)
- Total: 31
- Moneyline
Texans -125
Bears +105
In terms of narratives for tonight’s game, we already have the answer to one big question. Eberflus told the media on Tuesday that Caleb Williams would not play and that the Bears did not plan to play their starters in Canton. Eberflus and Ryans also “talked things through on Monday” regarding the game.
“It’s just basic football,” Eberflus said. “Let’s see them play, let them do technique and fundamentals of base things and keep it that way.”
The way Eberflus spoke with the media indicates that we won’t be seeing much razzle-dazzle, which should be no surprise to anyone. Tyson Bagent is expected to start as he competes with Brett Rypien and rookie quarterback Austin Reed for the backup spot behind Williams.
Chicago has many questions to answer among its backups, but the way Eberflus spoke suggests we may see a lot of the younger players fighting for roster spots as opposed to veterans who already have the experience. Therefore, we could see the Bears being a little mistake-prone as they bed in their younger players.
It also seems as though that could be the theme for the Texans. When Ryans spoke to the media about the Hall of Fame Game, he referenced this being an “extra” game for them.
“With this first preseason game being an extra game for us, we’re really looking to see most of our young guys get out and compete, and see if they can take the things we’ve been teaching them daily from the field and take it and show up when the lights are on,” said Ryans.
“That’s main thing you’ll see in this first Hall of Fame Game. You’ll see a lot of young guys, who are vying for a spot to make it in the NFL. It will be great to see those guys go out and compete.”
That is pretty much the closest we’ve come to finding out who will and won’t play for Houston against Chicago.
Ryans has kept his cards close to his chest, telling the media on Tuesday, “You guys will all see who plays on Thursday. I’m not going through a list of who’s playing, who’s not playing. I’m not going through that list. You guys will see on Thursday who steps out there.”
As things stand, Ryans hasn’t ruled out any of his starters for the Hall of Fame Game, but it seems unlikely we see any of them for more than a series, if at all. Offensive veterans such as Stefon Diggs, Laremy Tunsil, Dalton Schultz, and Joe Mixon seem unlikely to play — especially Mixon, who has been dealing with an injury in camp.
Davis Mills, Case Keenum, and Tim Boyle are the Texans’ backup quarterback options, arguably a step up from Bagent, Rypien, and Reed, which could be important later in the game. Similarly, Houston has more questions to answer at wide receiver, with Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Noah Brown, Robert Woods, and John Metchie III fighting for playing time this year.
All told, the Texans’ depth looks stronger across the board, and we could see extended opportunities for Day 2 draft picks Kamari Lassiter and Calen Bullock on defense in this game.
Ultimately, the narrative here is that the Texans seem to have more guys fighting for game-day roles in the regular season, while the Bears’ players seem to be more concerned with making the 53-man roster. That should mean Houston has extra strength throughout the four quarters, plus seemingly a better depth of QB experience, which could be crucial in the fourth quarter.
Hall of Fame Game Picks
The sportsbooks have this game as a virtual pick ’em, which makes a ton of sense with the uncertainty. Their slight lean to the Texans also makes sense, because we don’t know exactly who will play for Houston.
Each coach has their own agenda, and while they’ve discussed the game between them, they have their own questions to work through.
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Any bet on the Hall of Fame Game should be small because a coach could simply shut the playbook down and play relatively safe football at any point. My pick for this game in terms of the moneyline and spread would be to take the Texans -1 because it carries slightly less juice than the ML.
In terms of the total, 31 feels low. We’ve seen the last two games end up in the high 30s.
However, the way Eberflus spoke about technique and “basic football” makes me wonder if Chicago runs the ball a lot, which will run the clock down and limit its scoring opportunities. I lean towards the over, but there’s no strong feeling either way for this game.