Facebook Pixel

    Green Bay Packers vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Storylines, prediction for Aaron Rodgers-less battle

    The Green Bay Packers vs. Kansas City Chiefs game involves a ton of storylines this week, but we kept it to football in this preview.

    The Green Bay Packers vs. Kansas City Chiefs looked like one of the season’s best matchups when we looked at the NFL schedule upon its release. A lot has changed since then.

    The Chiefs almost lost to the Giants. University of Texas special teams coach Jeff Banks has a girlfriend nicknamed “The Pole Assassin” who owns an emotional support monkey that bit a child on Halloween. The Browns released Odell Beckham Jr. Aaron Rodgers tested positive for COVID-19, and when the media found out he’d lied about his vaccination status, all hell broke loose.

    That all happened this week. Football has been a full participant in spooky season. So what can the Packers and Chiefs offer us?

    Green Bay Packers vs. Kansas City Chiefs storylines

    The Packers have won seven games in a row after their embarrassing Week 1 loss to the New Orleans Saints. The Chiefs looked like the Chiefs early, but it was evident against Buffalo that Kansas City is at least partially broken. Moving safety Juan Thornhill into the starting lineup and trading for edge rusher Melvin Ingram might help a bit, but is it enough?

    Can Jordan Love outduel Patrick Mahomes?

    No. But the thing is, he doesn’t have to. First, Jordan Love and Patrick Mahomes don’t actually face one another. The more accurate representation of this would pit the two quarterbacks against opposing defenses, but this is the way we frame things for some reason.

    Anyways, the real question is — can Love lead the Packers to more points against the Kansas City defense than Mahomes can against the Green Bay defense?

    It feels unlikely, given Love has 7 career passing attempts. However, we just watched Mike White and Cooper Rush win games in the NFL despite not having anything in their history to preview. Neither offered the pre-draft excitement of Love, whom the Packers traded up to select in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft.

    Can the defenses hold up?

    We also need to look at the respective defenses. Only the Lions and Jaguars have worse defenses than the Chiefs. Just last week, we saw them play a 20-17 game against an underachieving Giants defense and their anemic offense. Meanwhile, the Packers’ defense has lost some juice since Jaire Alexander went on injured reserve, and they haven’t rushed the passer as they did in 2020. They rank 15th in expected points allowed per play, but they have the fifth-worst success rate defensively.

    So, with two offenses ranking in the top seven in EPA/play, this should be a shootout. That should favor Mahomes and the Chiefs, but things could spiral if Kansas City turns the ball over early.

    [bet-bonus id=”164810″ ]

    Few teams have turned the ball over like the Chiefs. They’re -11 in turnover margin. The only two teams competing are the Jaguars at -11 and the Jets at -12. Meanwhile, the Packers are third in the league at +8.

    If the turnovers continue, yes — Patrick Mahomes could lose to Jordan Love.

    Will the Chiefs’ defense improve in 2021?

    I believe the Chiefs can turn their season around, but it might not appear that way on the surface. Kansas City’s schedule resembles the Avengers assembling against them. They get a reprieve with the Rodgers news, but they still have to face the Raiders (twice), Cowboys, Chargers, and Bengals.

    It isn’t easy to get consistent stops against those offenses. But the addition of Ingram and the insertion of Thornhill should help give the Chiefs’ defense a bit of a push. Daniel Sorensen’s play was an issue. If the cornerbacks have more confidence in the safety on the back end, they too can play with more confidence, allowing Tyrann Mathieu to be a playmaker.

    Green Bay vs. Kansas City betting line and game prediction

    The 7.5-point spread favoring the Chiefs feels like perfection from Vegas. This game could quickly get out of hand if Love cannot keep the chains moving. But even if that’s the case, the Packers could easily get close to that mark late and backdoor a cover.

    Until the turnovers actually stop, I won’t expect them to stop. I believe this game remains close, but we’ll get some heroics from Mahomes that results in a win for the Chiefs.

    Packers vs. Chiefs Prediction: Chiefs 28, Packers 24

    Listen to the PFN Inside Access Podcast!

    Listen to the PFN Inside Access Podcast! Click the embedded player below to listen, or you can find the PFN Fantasy Podcast on iTunes, Spotify, and all major podcast platforms.  Be sure to subscribe and leave us a five-star review!

    Related Articles