The Giants and Panthers take their teams overseas to Germany for a battle between the two stuggling teams. Below is our early pick and prediction for the game. Note that all odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of November 4, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated otherwise.
If you’re looking for other games, check out our Early Week 10 Picks and Predictions for the entire slate.
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New York Giants (-4.5, 42.5) at Carolina Panthers in Germany
These teams are coming off contrasting results against division rivals, with the Carolina Panthers getting a tight win and the New York Giants just getting run out of it in the fourth quarter.
The Giants are ranked higher in terms of our PR+ metric, but both teams are in the bottom quarter of the rankings, making this a tough game to call, especially when having to lay 4.5 points with New York.
Both offenses have struggled, with the Giants ranking 30th and the Panthers 26th. Meanwhile, New York’s defense is the best unit on the field, ranking 15th compared to Carolina in last. That should give the Giants an advantage against a young Panthers offense that has blown hot and cold.
I don’t love laying 4.5 points with New York and will probably ultimately pass on betting on this game because I don’t trust either side of it. The Panthers offense under Bryce Young is improved in his second stint as the starter, but the bar was extremely low at the start of the season. It is hard to know what to do with a game that has the added complication of being played over in Germany.
Prediction: Giants 23, Panthers 20
Pick: Pass
Giants at Panthers Game Stats and Insights
New York Giants
Team: New York is averaging just 2.78 plays of 20-plus yards this season (28th, ranking just behind Carolina’s 2.89 per game).
QB: In a limited offense, the “layups” have to overachieve, and that didn’t happen on Sunday against the Commanders. Yes, Daniel Jones completed 13-of-16 short passes, but those plays gained a total of just 46 yards – in essence, they were no better than handoffs that come with more risk because you’re putting the ball in the air.
Offense: The Giants are averaging a league-worst 5.1 yards per play on first down this season (since 2013, only the 2015 San Diego Chargers and the 2020 Philadelphia Eagles have posted lower marks for a season).
Defense: The Giants own the highest sack rate in the league (12.3%).
Fantasy: Five times this season has a rookie receiver played 70% of the snaps and been targeted on at least one-third of his route:
- Malik Nabers (Week 2 at Commanders)
- Malik Nabers (Week 3 at Browns)
- Malik Nabers (Week 4 vs. Cowboys)
- Brian Thomas Jr. (Week 4 at Texans)
- Malik Nabers (Week 9 vs. Commanders)
Betting: Pick a side and commit – seven of New York’s past 10 road games have seen the spread (in one direction or another) be covered by at least a dozen points.
Carolina Panthers
Team: Carolina is being out-scored by 16.2 points per game, the third worst mark through nine weeks over the past decade (2020 Jets: -16.3, 2019 Dolphins: -19.1).
QB: When throwing the ball 10-plus yards down the field this season, Bryce Young has completed just 20-of-51 passes (39.2%) with one touchdown against six interceptions.
Offense: We thought last season was rock bottom? Through nine weeks, Carolina is averaging 5.5 fewer yards of offense per game this season than last.
Defense: The Panthers have allowed the second-highest opponent passer rating through nine weeks (111.2).
Fantasy: Not only does Jonathon Brooks loom, but defenses are wising up to the Chuba Hubbard strength of this offense – in Weeks 8-9, 50% of his carries came against a loaded box (Weeks 5-7: 18.8%).
Betting: Underdogs have failed to cover four of the past five Sunday morning games.