San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle has been the best tight end in the NFL for a half-decade. But he hasn’t necessarily been the best fantasy football tight end.
With his competition for targets increasing every year, is Kittle overvalued in fantasy this year?
Should You Select George Kittle at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 55th Overall (TE6)
- 2023 Recap: George Kittle has been one of the best tight ends in the NFL over the past five years, but his fantasy production has steadily declined. He averaged just 12.7 fantasy points per game last season, down from 13.4 in 2022 and 14.1 in 2021.
- Declining Volume: Kittle’s target share has decreased in recent years, falling from at least 25% in 2018-2021 to 19.8% and 21% over the past two seasons. The 49ers’ low pass volume and the presence of other talented playmakers have limited Kittle’s opportunities.
- Efficiency vs. Volume: While Kittle remains highly efficient, leading all tight ends in yards per route run, yards per target, and yards per reception last season, his reduced role in the 49ers’ offense has capped his fantasy ceiling.
- Competition for Targets: The 49ers boast a crowded offense with Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Christian McCaffrey, and now rookie WR Ricky Pearsall. This makes it difficult for Kittle to consistently command high volume, further limiting his fantasy upside.
- ADP Value: Kittle is currently being drafted as the TE6, 55th overall. While this reflects his consistent top-six performance since 2018, the increasing competition for targets and declining volume make him a risky pick at his price.
- Final Verdict: Kittle’s current ADP may be too high given the challenges he faces in maintaining a high target share. While he remains a top-tier talent, his fantasy value is dependent on the health of his teammates. Kittle is a risky pick unless he falls to a more favorable draft position.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for George Kittle
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Kittle is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus TE rankings instead.
1) Sam LaPorta, TE | Detroit Lions
2) Travis Kelce, TE | Kansas City Chiefs
3) Mark Andrews, TE | Baltimore Ravens
4) Trey McBride, TE | Arizona Cardinals
5) Dalton Kincaid, TE | Buffalo Bills
6) Evan Engram, TE | Jacksonville Jaguars
7) George Kittle, TE | San Francisco 49ers
8) Kyle Pitts, TE | Atlanta Falcons
9) David Njoku, TE | Cleveland Browns
10) Jake Ferguson, TE | Dallas Cowboys
11) Brock Bowers, TE | Las Vegas Raiders
12) Dallas Goedert, TE | Philadelphia Eagles
George Kittle’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 Fantasy Season
It’s really hard to not like Kittle. He’s a joy to watch and looks like he’s having so much fun out there. But Kittle’s total football skills and his enjoyment of the game don’t score fantasy points.
Kittle had his breakout season back in 2018, which feels like a lifetime ago. He averaged 16.0 fantasy points per game. And ever since then…his production has declined each year.
To be fair, saying Kittle has declined every year paints an overly negative picture. Kittle going from 16.0 to 15.9 to 15.6 fantasy points per game is perfectly fine. Even if that downward trend continued to a similar degree, it wouldn’t be cause for concern. It’s the more recent stuff that should raise fantasy managers’ eyebrows.
In 2021, Kittle’s fantasy points per game plummeted to 14.1. While that’s not ideal, he was still a great fantasy tight end. The real problem is what happened the past two seasons.
Kittle averaged 13.4 fantasy points per game in 2022 and 12.7 in 2023. Normally, when this happens, we can point to a change in something about the way a player was used. With Kittle, he was like two completely different players in 2022 and 2023, neither of which was particularly good for fantasy.
Is Kittle a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
In 2022, Kittle averaged just 12.8 yards per reception but scored 11 touchdowns. Last season, he only scored six times, three of which came in a single game. However, he was incredibly efficient, averaging 15.7 yards per reception.
As you will hear me say hundreds of times, volume is king. Over the past two seasons, Kittle’s volume has suffered.
During that span, the 49ers’ neutral-game-script pass rate was just 53%, tied for eighth lowest in the league. Additionally, Kittle’s target share, which was at least 25% from 2018-2021, fell to 19.8% and 21% in the past two years.
The term “too many mouths to feed” is often thrown around a bit too haphazardly. Good players will command volume. Sometimes, though, it’s justified. In the 49ers’ case, we know it is because we have the data to support it.
San Francisco has four incredibly talented playmakers: Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Christian McCaffrey. It’s simply not going to be possible for all four of them to produce every week. Someone is going to get left out. Kittle has his moments in the spotlight, but they are becoming rarer.
George Kittle already with 91 yards on 3 catches through the first quarter.
📺: #BALvsSF on ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/pkwa8SXokx pic.twitter.com/dCXIn4Nk7B
— NFL (@NFL) December 26, 2023
Over the past three years, Kittle has played 38 games with Samuel. In those games, he’s averaged 11.8 fantasy points per game. However, in seven games without Samuel, he’s averaged 22.4!
The sample size is much smaller for Aiyuk, but Kittle averaged 13.4 fantasy points per game in 44 games with him and scored 16 points in his one game without Aiyuk.
Could it be considered an indictment on Kittle that he struggles to earn targets when both Samuel and Aiyuk are active? Sure. But Kittle is a tight end. His job responsibilities extend beyond catching the ball. The fact that he’s one of the best blocking tight ends in NFL history is actually bad for his fantasy value.
Kittle’s 2.3 yards per route run led all tight ends last season. He also led the NFL in yards per target and yards per reception. In the right environment, there’s no reason to doubt Kittle’s ability to be an elite fantasy tight end. I firmly believe he’s capable of producing 18 fantasy points per game. The 49ers just aren’t going to ask him to.
This year, in addition to the three previously mentioned names, the 49ers drafted WR Ricky Pearsall. While he’s not a direct threat to Kittle, he’s still one more talented player in the mix. The only realistic path to Kittle returning to 14+ points per game is injuries to at least one, if not two, of Samuel, Aiyuk, and Pearsall.
