The Las Vegas Raiders entered the offseason with several major question marks, but none bigger than at the quarterback position.
They hired Super Bowl-winning head coach Pete Carroll to replace Antonio Pierce. The next big domino to fall for the front office was to find their quarterback of the future.
However, who could’ve predicted they would make a splash before free agency begins by acquiring veteran Geno Smith in a trade with the Seattle Seahawks?
Let’s examine why the Raiders decided to trade for Smith to reunite him with his one-time Seahawks head coach.
Raiders’ Offensive Struggles
The Raiders’ offense was awful in 2024, finishing the regular season with the 27th-ranked unit, according to PFSN’s Offense+ metric. They ranked:
- 31st in total EPA per game (-7.77)
- 31st in EPA per play (-0.12)
- 30th in turnover rate (15.2%)
- 29th in points per drive (1.58)
- 28th in yards per play (4.8)
- 28th in points scored per game (17.8)
Pierce’s squad trotted out a combination of Gardner Minshew II, Aidan O’Connell, and Desmond Ridder under center. That’s not exactly an inspiring trio of quarterbacks. It wasn’t just the quarterbacks, either. The Raiders were bad across the board on offense.
With a glaring need at quarterback heading into the offseason, speculation grew about what the front office would do to address it.
Las Vegas released Minshew earlier in the week. They currently own the No. 6 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. This class is not particularly deep at quarterback, with Miami (FL)’s Cam Ward and Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders the two most likely names to come off the board in the first round.
There are a few QB-needy teams picking before the Raiders, so to land either Ward or Sanders, they likely would’ve had to trade up in the draft. Instead of banking on being able to secure one of the top prospects in this year’s draft class, the Raiders are reuniting Carroll with a familiar face from his time in Seattle.
Geno Smith’s On-Field Production
Smith played for the Seahawks under Carroll from 2020 to 2023, serving as the starting quarterback in 2022 and 2023. In those seasons, Smith ranked fourth in completion percentage (67.4%), sixth in passing touchdowns (50), and sixth in passing yards (7,906). However, he was only 17th in EPA per dropback (0.04) and 14th in success rate (47.5%).
Smith ranked between 10th and 18th in PFSNs QB+ metric in each of his three seasons as the Seahawks’ starter. He finished 15th in the rankings last season with a 77.6 QB+ grade. In comparison, O’Connell ranked 20th with a 73.8 grade and Minshew finished 35th with a 60.6 grade.
Smith had some big moments last season, but his 2024 numbers were largely underwhelming. He ranked:
- 21st in EPA per dropback (0.03)
- 20th in third down conversions (37.4%)
- 14th in net yards per attempt (6.9).
Although Smith didn’t put up eye-popping numbers last season, he’s still a clear upgrade over the Raiders’ 2024 QB room. Raiders QBs have averaged -0.05 EPA per dropback the last two seasons since they traded away Derek Carr.
Smith’s biggest strength has been that he has performed very well when protected, ranking seventh in passer rating (107.4) when kept clean since 2022. Raiders quarterbacks had just an 89.7 passer rating when kept clean in 2024, which ranked 27th. In addition, Raiders QBs had the worst touchdown rate (2.0%) when kept clean.
Smith will hope to play behind a better offensive line next season. Seattle ranked 27th in PFSN’s Offensive Line rankings in 2024, while Las Vegas ranked 22nd. Last year, Smith ranked 13th in EPA per dropback when kept clean (0.28), compared to 27th when pressured (-0.66).
Raiders’ Outlook in Carroll’s First Season
At 34 years old, Smith is far from an elite quarterback at this stage of his career. Still, he’s proven to be more than serviceable, and he offers veteran leadership that the Raiders’ locker room desperately needs.
On the field, Smith’s arrival means the quarterback position should be noticeably better in 2025 than it was last season. Having stability at the most important position could be huge for Las Vegas’ rebuild. Smith’s familiarity with Carroll certainly doesn’t hurt either.
Las Vegas’ offense features a bright young star in tight end Brock Bowers. As a rookie, he led all TEs in receptions (112), receiving yards (1,194), and yards after catch (596). Outside of Bowers and veteran wide receiver Jakobi Meyers, the Raiders lack upside at the skill positions. The duo combined for 2,221 receiving yards, 58.4% of the team’s yards in 2024.
The Raiders have plenty more work to do in free agency and the draft to surround Smith with more firepower on offense and put him in the best position to succeed next season and beyond.
Trading for Smith may not move the needle much within the overall AFC landscape, but adding a capable veteran gives the Raiders a bit more hope at quarterback than they entered the offseason with.