To quote Mrs. Doubtfire, “Help is on the way, dear.”
New York Jets WR Garrett Wilson has been a WR1 stuck in a WR3 situation through the first two years of his NFL career, but he could emerge as a WR1 overall candidate with Aaron Rodgers under center.
Can fantasy managers expect Wilson to finally produce a top-10 fantasy football season at the WR position in 2024?
Garrett Wilson’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Faith can be described as complete trust or confidence in someone or something, even if you haven’t witnessed something happen with your own eyes to confirm your belief. If you are projecting Wilson as a top-10 fantasy WR in 2024, then you are exhibiting a healthy amount of faith in this third-year receiver.
There is no denying the fact that Wilson is an ascending talent and should get a significant upgrade regarding the level of play from the quarterback position this year, but one should certainly acknowledge his lack of elite production over the first two years of his NFL career.
Wilson’s Season Stats:
- 2023: 95 receptions, 1,042 yards, three TDs (WR26 overall)
- 2022: 83 receptions, 1,103 yards, four TDs (WR21 overall)
Does Wilson’s lack of elite production require some context? Absolutely. The New York Jets’ offense averaged just 171 passing yards per game in 2023 (30th in the league). Additionally, New York averaged only 15.8 points per game (29th).
Naturally, this type of ineptitude from the offense as a whole can be attributed to the putrid level of quarterback play Wilson has been subjected to throughout his first two years in the league. This is why a player who finished 2023 with 168 targets (fourth in the NFL) and a 29.8% target share (fifth in the NFL) finished outside of the top 25 at the WR position in full-PPR formats.
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Fortunately, help is on the way in the form of a four-time league MVP stepping in under center; Rodgers is expected to be fully recovered from the torn Achilles he suffered just four plays into the 2023 season opener.
A dynamic playmaker like Wilson who can line up all over the formation (29.1% of his snaps from the slot in 2023) and win on all three levels of the football field could lead to the type of target funnel Davante Adams enjoyed with Rodgers during their days together with the Green Bay Packers.
Now, questions remain about which version of Rodgers fans will see in 2024 and how that could impact Wilson’s fantasy ceiling entering his third year in the league. However, if Rodgers is capable of playing at even an average starter’s level this season, then it would likely be considered a significant upgrade for Wilson.
Wilson’s target competition isn’t exactly elite, either. Breece Hall led all running backs with 76 receptions last year, but players like Mike Williams, Malachi Corley, and Tyler Conklin shouldn’t exactly threaten Wilson’s already elite 30.1% target share in 2024.
Is Wilson a Good Fantasy Pick?
Wilson’s ADP at No. 12 overall in the first round as the WR7 overall off the board suggests fantasy managers are buying into the impending breakout season from the talented receiver entering his third year in the league. For some additional context, Harrison is currently coming off the board behind A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, and Amon-Ra St. Brown at the WR position.
Wilson has some of the symptoms of a potential breakout player in 2024, but he does come with some risk at this price point due to the fact we simply haven’t seen him produce elite fantasy numbers yet in his NFL career.
Ultimately, I lean harder towards Wilson elevating his game to new heights this year with an MVP-caliber quarterback. Traditionally, investing into Rodgers’ top target in the passing game has been a sound fantasy football strategy. This is why I am willing to make the leap of faith with a talented player like Wilson in 2024.