New York Jets WR Garrett Wilson was supposed to have his breakout season in 2023, but his — and fantasy football managers’ — hopes were dashed by QB Aaron Rodgers’ torn Achilles.
With a presumably healthy Rodgers in 2024, should Best Ball drafters draft Wilson just as we were doing last year?
Garrett Wilson’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
Whenever a rookie wide receiver posts 83 catches for 1,103 yards, it’s safe to say he’s destined for greatness. However, Wilson only averaged 12.7 fantasy points per game as a rookie, largely because he scored just four touchdowns.
The Garrett Wilson dynasty discussion is as much his situation as anything. Are we nearing a true breakout for the former first-round pick? https://t.co/Hqg2XB5qGI
— PFN Fantasy (@PFNFantasy) January 31, 2024
Like many top prospects before him, Wilson was expected to take the sophomore-year leap. Unfortunately, that didn’t happen.
In most instances, when players fail to launch like Wilson, it’s because we were wrong about their talent profile. However, with Wilson, there were extenuating circumstances. Nothing about Wilson’s disappointing 2023 season has to do with his football ability. That is still there in spades.
As a rookie, Wilson posted WR1 numbers when playing with any QB not named Zach Wilson.
Therefore, given that Rodgers was set to be the Jets quarterback, fantasy managers expected Wilson to be at least as good as he was with QB Joe Flacco and QB Mike White, if not ascend to the ranks of being Rodgers’ new Davante Adams.
Fantasy managers know what happened next. Rodgers tore his Achilles four plays into the season, relegating Wilson to another year with bottom-tier quarterback play. Yet, Wilson still demonstrated elite WR1 characteristics and saw a 30.1% target share.
Wilson’s efficiency metrics were awful, but not because of him. He averaged just 1.56 yards per route run because fewer than 70% of his targets were catchable. He had 42.7% of his team’s air yards.
Yet, his 6.2 yards per target was 87th in the league. That’s what happens when a player has nearly 1,000 unrealized air yards.
Should You Draft Wilson in 2024 Best Ball Leagues?
Once again, Wilson is being priced as if the breakout already happened. That is the new trend in fantasy football. Guys like Wilson no longer go in the fourth or fifth round; you have to pay for the ascension in advance.
Last year, I believe Wilson would have been worth his late first/early second-round price tag had Rodgers stayed healthy. At 40 years old, there’s certainly reason to be concerned about Rodgers.
Wilson’s value is tethered not only to his health but his quarterback’s as well. But, to be fair, we can say that about a bunch of wide receivers.
KEEP READING: Best Ball Stacking Strategy
Wilson didn’t have any massive weekly performances last season. He topped 20 fantasy points just once at 20.1, which was his best game of the season. But the target floor was there. Now imagine that same volume with an infinitely more accurate quarterback.
I’ve seen enough from Wilson to believe it’s worth paying for a 16-18 point per game season ahead of time. Best Ball drafters can confidently select Wilson at the same place he was going last year.
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