Florida vs. Florida State Prediction: Odds, Spread, DFS Picks, and More

While our Florida vs. Florida State prediction leans heavily one way, can the Gators keep it close with their in-state rival?

The rivalry game that has dominated the state of Florida is here. Our Florida vs. Florida State college football betting prediction gives pause at just how much of a gap there is between these two teams. FSU is playing their best football while the Gators have a dilemma on their hands.

Florida vs. Florida State Betting Preview

  • Spread
    Florida State (-9.5)
  • Moneyline
    Florida State (-360); Florida (+295)
  • Over/Under
    58 
  • Game time
    7:30 p.m. ET
  • Location
    Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL
  • Predicted weather at kickoff
    66 degrees, cloudy, 5-6 mph winds
  • How to watch
    fuboTV, ABC

Top DFS Picks and Fantasy Plays

  • QB Anthony Richardson, Florida ($10,400)
  • QB Jordan Travis, Florida State ($10,200)
  • RB Trey Benson, Florida State ($7,900)
  • RB Montrell Johnson Jr., Florida ($7,600)
  • RB Treshaun Ward, Florida State ($6,600)
  • RB Lawrance Toafili, Florida State ($5,800)
  • RB Trevor Etienne, Florida ($5,800)
  • WR Johnny Wilson, Florida State ($7,500)
  • WR Justin Shorter, Florida ($6,900) *Doubtful
  • WR Ontaria Wilson, Florida State ($6,100)
  • WR Mycah Pittman, Florida State ($6,000)
  • WR Ricky Pearsall, Florida ($6,000)
  • WR Daejon Reynolds, Florida ($5,600)
  • WR Kentron Poitier, FLorida State ($5,500)
  • WR Malik McClain, Florida State ($5,300)
  • WR Ja’Khi Douglas, Florida State ($5,200)
  • TE Camren McDonald, Florida State ($5,100)

At the beginning of the season, the hopes for FSU football certainly differed. Some thought bowl eligibility was the floor, while others thought a winning season was a mere pipe dream.

Fast forward to Week 13 now and the Seminoles can win 10 games in 2022 if they win out. Jordan Travis is playing elite football. And Florida State’s receiving corps is arguably the best and deepest in the ACC.

Florida State is playing a rare brand of football that includes dominant offensive line play, playmakers in the backfield who can create on their own, and receivers that can beat any kind of coverage.

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It all starts with Travis and his elite athleticism. He’s a dominant thrower of the football and has stepped his game up in 2022 with progressive read throws, passes where he’s thrown his receivers open, and tremendous off-platform ability.

In a blind read, that could also be said of the preseason hype for Anthony Richardson at Florida. However, as we enter the season’s last week, Richardson is a must-avoid in DFS leagues with his volatile play. Meanwhile, Travis is a must-start in your Superflex position.

Trey Benson and Lawrance Toafili headline the backfield plays for FSU as they enter this game following a beatdown of Louisiana. Benson is averaging over seven yards per carry, and four different FSU backs have scored five or more touchdowns.

Benson is the play if he’s fully healthy. Save room on your roster for him and await clarity if he’s playing on Black Friday. If not, grab Toafili.

Prediction for Florida vs. Florida State

You’re up! Figure out the dilemma that is the Florida Gators this season. One week after holding South Carolina to just six points, the Gamecocks exploded for 66 points against Tennessee — and the Gators lost to Vanderbilt for just the second time in program history.

It’s a conundrum that may not have an easy solution to explain and certainly not one that is easy to fix.

What the Gators do have going for them this season is Anthony Richardson’s athleticism. However, that athleticism has not paved way for consistent victories or even competent play from their offense.

Combine that with the possibility of Richardson’s last game as the Gators’ QB (and all that goes in with a student-athlete weighing options on the future and entering the NFL Draft), and you’ve got the makings of an even uglier day happening for UF.

MORE: College Football Picks, Predictions for Week 13 Early Line Value for Rivalry Week

Florida State is incredibly hot entering this matchup as well. The Seminoles have outscored their opponents by a combined score of 173-39 in their last four games, and their defense has raised the bar for what state of Florida defenses can do.

Jammie Robinson is the ultimate X-factor in this game as the ‘Noles safety has paced FSU’s defense in 2022. Robinson is arguably the nation’s top safety off the edge and has made highlight-reel tackle after highlight-reel tackle in the backfield this season.

Robinson is in line for a nod as an All-American and, most importantly, offers up the athleticism, speed, and strength to contain Richardson on scrambles or off-platform throws. D.J. Lundy, Tatum Bethune, and Amari Gainer each will have their moments — the Seminoles are a more talented unit than the Gators at seemingly every turn.

The Noles are primed to win double-digit games for the first time in what feels like forever. And they’ve done it the right way, with team wins, elite quarterback play from Travis, and dictating the pace of the action with stout offensive and defensive line play.

FSU gets back in the win column against their archrival and sets up a potential big-time matchup with either Oregon, Utah, or UCLA in the Holiday Bowl.

Prediction: Florida State 41, Florida 20

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