The New England Patriots will host the Miami Dolphins on Sunday in Week 5. The spread currently stands at Dolphins -1, with a game total of 36.5. The Dolphins’ implied points are 18.8, and the Patriots’ implied points are 17.8.
Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Patriots skill player who has the potential to make an impact during the game.
Jacoby Brissett, QB
Jacoby Brissett ran for 32 yards in the upset win over the Bengals to open the season, giving Superflex managers some hope that he could backdoor his way into some fantasy points.
It was a mirage.
Brissett has just nine rushing yards to his name since that “explosion,” and considering that he is averaging just 5.3 yards per pass attempt in an offense that would rather not throw the ball, there’s little reason to be optimistic.
His peak performance this season is QB24, a rating he could surpass this week, but not by much. Which QB will lead this game in fantasy points is potentially an interesting wager to make with your friends.
I’m workshopping ideas here. I still have a handful of days to find a reason to devote a screen to this game.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB
The game script is going to work away from the Patriots more often than not, but this weekend looks like the exception. That said, are we sure that Rhamondre Stevenson is going to keep getting chances?
He’s put the ball on the ground in all four games this season (two lost) and averaged under four yards per carry in both games against the ‘Fins last season, with none of his 30 touches gaining more than 12 yards.
If you’re in a bind, Flexing Stevenson is reasonable, though I’m not doing it with the utmost confidence at the team has already announced that he won’t be starting. Avoiding this offense is the move that winning teams in 2024 are making.
Antonio Gibson,RB
A 50-yard reception last week made Antonio Gibson New England’s top receiver, and it was his second straight game with three receptions, but the touch count has yet to be expanded at a high enough level to put him on Flex radars (36 touches this season).
Due to Stevenson’s ball security issues, Gibson has a path to a lead role and thus needs to be rostered, though reasonable minds can disagree on if that title is worth anything in standard-sized leagues.
With Gibson set to start this week, he’s a risky RB2.The Patriots made it clear that Stevenson will still be a part of the gameplan and that means we are likely looking at a split backfield that has struggled to return a single viable asset this season.
Ja’Lynn Polk, WR
Ja’Lynn Polk saw seven targets last week after totaling just six through his first three games and had a 21-yard reception, his first play gaining more than seven yards. He has NFL ability, and I think we will see more of that once Drake Maye takes over, but in redraft leagues, there’s no reason to bet on this Patriots offense.
Against the 49ers last Sunday, 29.8% of their passing yards came on a single play. This offense has as little week-to-week upside as any in the league and is an avoid at all costs.
Hunter Henry, TE
Hunter Henry had 109 of his 148 yards (73.6%) this season in Week 2’s loss to the Seahawks. My guess is that there are some of you out there who added him after that standout performance and have spent the past two weeks (both TE38 finishes in a 32-team NFL) chasing something similar.
That hurts. It does, however, serve as a learning experience.
This is going to happen to more than a few tight ends this season. In an offense like this (16 points scored over the past two weeks), any pass catcher needs to earn targets in an elite way, and there simply isn’t anyone on New England’s roster capable of doing that.
You can move on from Henry as long as Brissett is under center. If (when) Drake Maye takes over, we can have a different discussion, but even then, I’m more likely to be late to the party than early.