In Week 5 on Sunday afternoon, the Arizona Cardinals will visit the San Francisco 49ers. The spread currently stands at 49ers -7.5, with a game total of 50.5. The Cardinals’ implied points are 21.5, and the 49ers’ implied points are 29.
Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Cardinals skill player who has the potential to make an impact during the game.
Kyler Murray, QB
I had Kyler Murray ranked as my QB1 last week, thinking that an ideal matchup against the Commanders would prove more impactful than not having Trey McBride at his disposal.
I stand by that train of thought, but Arizona had the ball for under 27 minutes and never got on track. Murray was efficient with a 72.7% completion rate, he just didn’t have a ton of valuable opportunities.
He’s not my QB1 this week in a tougher matchup, but Murray’s versatility, along with a nice stable of pass catchers, makes him a lineup lock that you need not think twice about, even after consecutive underwhelming weeks. He faced the 49ers once last season and had 45 opportunities (pass + rush attempts) — if he gets anything like that on Sunday, his production ceiling is as high as anyone in the sport.
James Conner, RB
James Conner has been a top-15 running back in three of four games this season, and given that he picked up at least five yards on 40% of his rush attempts against a 49ers defense that was playing at a higher level last season, there’s no reason to think he can’t make it 4-of-5.
Through September, San Francisco allowed the third most yards after contact per carry to running backs — arm tackles aren’t going to get it done in this spot. You can worry all you want about Conner’s ability to make it through four full months — for Week 5, he’s a top-15 running back without much question.
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR
The rookie is a pretty clear start given the early flashes we see every week. It’s been mental warfare up to this point — Marvin Harrison Jr. is scripted high-value looks early, makes good on them, and then disappears.
- Quarter 1: 50.7 points, 133.4% over expectation
- Rest of the game: 12.6 points, 54.6% below expectation
The previous high, since 2000, for a rookie in first quarters through four weeks was Hollywood Brown (38.7 PPR points). If you strictly gave him his first-quarter production over the course of 17 full games, he’d finish the season with 153 catches for 3,009 yards and 68 touchdowns.
That would be nice, wouldn’t it?
Marvin Harrison Jr. SPECIAL. 😤 #BirdGang
(via NFL, FOX)pic.twitter.com/vC8cJVtyg9
— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC)
Despite the flashes, Harrison has just one finish better than WR19 on his NFL report card up to this point. I like that to change sooner than later – he’s a top-10 play for me this week, a ranking that came without much hesitation at all.
Michael Wilson, WR
Trust the process. Young receivers can take time to develop and you owe it to yourself to flag growth when you see it, and that is where we currently stand with Michael Wilson.
- Weeks 1-2: four targets on 54 routes (7.4%)
- Weeks 3-4: 16 targets on 59 routes (27.1%)
The 49ers allow the fourth-most yards per completion (12.1), a defensive flaw that could allow Wilson to break out in this spot, much like he did in Week 4 last season (7-76-2) against San Francisco.
In that big performance, Wilson caught every one of his targets while his teammates hauled in just 61.8% of their looks from Josh Dobbs. He only has one top-40 performance this season, and that makes Flexing him with confidence a bit difficult. But if you’re missing a few options due to injuries or bye weeks, I could see calling his number.
Wilson is my WR37, ranking him in the Darnell Mooney and Dontayvion Wicks neighborhood.
Greg Dortch, WR
For a player that has yet to reach 50 receiving yards or find the end zone, Greg Dortch continually grades out higher for me than most, something that is again the case this week.
For me, Dortch is the way to bet cheap on this Cardinals offense, and with bye weeks upon us, sometimes that’s what you’re looking for. Through four weeks, 71.1% of Dortch’s routes have come from the slot, and the 49ers happen to own the fourth-highest opponent passer rating when throwing to that spot on the field (24-of-30 for 391 yards).
Given the efficiency of the targets Dortch earns, I give him a good chance to reach double figures in PPR points this week in a matchup where the game script figures to lean in his favor.
Trey McBride, TE
Update: McBride was downgraded to questionable on Saturday but is expected to play in Week 5.
Stop me if you’ve heard it before — it’s been a rough start to the season for the tight end position. A concussion resulted in Trey McBride sitting out last week, but even before the injury, his per-target PPR production was down 26.9% from last season, due in part to a red-zone target rate that is less than half of what it was during his breakout sophomore season.
I’m not sweating it. McBride was on the field for 84% of Arizona’s offensive snaps through the first three weeks, and if a talented player is on the field with regularity as a featured member of an above-average offense — he’s a locked-in fantasy option.
McBride lit up these 49ers in Week 15 last season to the tune of 10 catches and 102 yards on 11 targets (his teammates in that 16-point loss: 59.3% catch rate). While this is certainly a different structure, he is a mismatch waiting to happen.
If McBride is active for the Cardinals, he’s active for you. It really is that simple.
