After five years of wide receiver 2/3 numbers, the Washington Commanders’ Terry McLaurin got the best quarterback of his career and had his best season. What can fantasy football managers expect for a follow-up in 2025? Is McLaurin still a rock-solid WR2 with upside?
Terry McLaurin Fantasy Outlook
McLaurin is a fascinating case study. After posting over 900 receiving yards as a third-round rookie with a horrible QB situation, he found himself in a class of receivers that is very successful long term.
We should certainly classify McLaurin as a productive NFL pass catcher. He’s in the upper echelon of third-round WRs in NFL history. But I would stop short of saying he ever achieved greatness.
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For the better part of the first five years of his career, McLaurin was largely stagnant. Outside of an anomalous 14.9 fantasy points per game in the offensive bonanza of the 2020 Covid season, McLaurin averaged between 12.3 and 13.7 PPG every season. He was the epitome of “fine.” He was not a difference maker and wouldn’t swing matchups, but he would never be the reason you lose.
Last season, the Commanders finally got McLaurin a real quarterback, and he posted a career-best 15.8 PPG. Those were borderline WR1 numbers, making “Scary Terry” one of the best values of 2024. But did McLaurin really have a breakout season?
McLaurin’s 2024 Season Was a Bit of a Mirage
Based on his fantasy output, McLaurin had a breakout last year. Based on the numbers, he was the same guy he’s always been.
McLaurin’s target share was 23.3%, 34th in the league. That was right in line with what he’s done throughout his career. He was targeted on a mere 22.7% of his routes run, 44th in the league, also in line with career averages.
He had 82 catches for 1,096 yards. Since 2020, here are his yearly catch counts: 87, 77, 77, 79, 82. He was also between 1,002 and 1,191 yards each of those seasons.
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So, what precipitated the spike in fantasy points? It was quite literally one thing: touchdowns. McLaurin scored exactly four or five touchdowns each of the previous four seasons. In 2024, he scored 13 times. If you give him his usual five scores, he would’ve been at 13 PPG, just like always.
McLaurin’s ADP is WR16. He’s a talented player, for sure, but I have a hard time paying that price based on one season with an outlier touchdown rate. I have McLaurin ranked as my WR20, which is slightly below consensus. If he falls below ADP, I’ll take him. But I can’t invest heavily in a player I believe is being drafted close to his ceiling.
Mason LeBeau‘s Terry McLaurin Projection
The Terry McLaurin situation is frustrating because we finally got the breakout year from him we’ve been waiting for behind an incredible rookie phenom. After years of poor QB play hindering an excellent player, McLaurin rightfully wanted to be rewarded for his play. He had the leverage and got his extension following the conclusion of camp.Â
Now there’s a few things to wonder about. Will missing all of the off-season prep slow him down to start the season? Does the addition of Deebo Samuel help, hurt, or not affect him at all? It’s hard to say. We know that Brandon Aiyuk in a similar situation did infact start the year quite poorly, but that doesn’t guarantee that McLaurin will.Â
His underlying metrics weren’t fantastic either; he had career-low targets (excluding his rookie year) and career-average receptions in 2024, so while his offense and quality of QB improved, his workload did not. Instead, he smashed his own touchdown record, 13, up from his previous high of seven.Â
If he touchdown rate regresses closer to his normal, then he’ll need to set new highs in receptions and yards to improve upon his career year. It’s possible in this offense that he can do that, but all of the other questions makes me hesitate. I’m not eager to draft McLaurin this year unless I stack him with Daniels.
