There’s been a youth takeover at the tight end position in fantasy football. But should fantasy managers be paying a premium for these early-ish round tight ends?
Here are two busts managers should avoid drafting this season.
Tight End Fantasy Football Busts
The term “bust” feels a bit harsh. It’s something about the word. Really all it means is a player we think will finish significantly lower than his ADP suggests he should.
With no truly elite tight end this season, it makes the price of the position more palatable, thus reducing the potential for busts. Nevertheless, there are some guys who pose a bust risk. Here are two of them.
Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills (ADP: TE5)
I want to preface this by saying I don’t necessarily think fantasy managers should completely avoid drafting Dalton Kincaid. There are elements of his profile that point to success.
Kincaid is a sophomore player, which is a common year for tight end breakouts. He also projects to be the top pass catcher on his team, which now no longer rosters Stefon Diggs or Gabe Davis.
MORE: Fantasy Football Rankings 2024: Top Options at TE
But there are also plenty of red flags. Way more than we’d like for a guy who costs such a premium to draft.
First, Kincaid was unable to break away from Dawson Knox last season. He had that run without Knox where he was a heavy-volume TE1. But with Knox, Kincaid averaged just 7.4 fantasy points per game. That’s juxtaposed with 14.2 without Knox.
Even if we limit that split to after Knox returned from IR in Week 14, Kincaid still averaged 7.4 ppg the rest of the way.
Second, Kincaid averaged 9.4 ppg last season. Not a single tight end who has averaged fewer than 10 ppg has exceeded his ADP expectation by at least 2.0 ppg (credit to JJ Zachariason for this data).
That doesn’t mean Kincaid will bust. It does mean Kincaid is highly unlikely to be meaningfully better than where he’s being drafted, though.
Third, Kincaid averaged below 1.5 yards per route run. The best tight ends get to 2.0.
Kincaid will be 25 years old this year. He’s playing in just his second NFL season. By no means should anyone shut the door on Kincaid. However, there are enough red flags that fantasy managers should at least understand the bust potential that comes with Kincaid.
Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans (ADP: TE13)
I get why fantasy managers would be interested in Dalton Schultz. We want pieces of the Texans’ offense. We want C.J. Stroud’s weapons. But Schultz is not that guy.
We know who Schultz is. He averaged 10.0 fantasy points per game last season. Outside of his eight-touchdown 2021 campaign, he’s consistently been between 9-10 ppg. That’s…fine? But you can stream that.
KEEP READING: Fantasy Football Busts To Avoid in 2024
Schultz is coming off the board as the TE13. I have him ranked as the TE15. I just don’t see any upside in Schultz. Yet, there’s a ton of downside with increased target competition in the form of Diggs.
Schultz now falls to fourth on the target hierarchy, at best. As great as Stroud is, it’s a lot to ask any QB to sustain four fantasy-relevant pass-catchers.
Schultz isn’t necessarily going to bust because he’s not exactly expensive, but he’s not worth paying up for in fantasy drafts. If you’ve waited so long that you have to take Schultz, just wait even longer.