The NFL season is back, and fantasy football managers are ready for a full slate of action to flood their TVs this weekend, giving ample opportunities to adjust their lineups. Starting with a clean slate and not all matchups being equal, here are our top start/sit plays for fantasy football in Week 1.
Fantasy football start/sit players for Week 1 | Quarterbacks
Start: Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers @ CHI
While somewhat risky, as you never know what you’ll get in Week 1, I have a sneaky feeling fantasy managers will be pleased if they start Trey Lance in fantasy football. Taking on the Chicago Bears, Lance has an excellent opportunity to get his feet wet and start his very first season opener.
In his two starts last season, Lance averaged 22.4 PPR/game along with 60 rushing yards a contest. It’s one reason his over/under of 38.5 yards is so intriguing. The Bears allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to QBs last year, ranked bottom 10 in EPA/dropback, and traded away their top defensive player (Khalil Mack).
In this favorable matchup, Lance comes in as the QB8 in PFN’s Week 1 fantasy football rankings. If you have him, start Lance against Chicago with confidence.
Start: Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints @ ATL
Having avoided the PUP list, Jameis Winston has a full complement of weapons around him. Michael Thomas (ankle) looks like he’ll play in Week 1. Alvin Kamara avoided any suspension and is unlikely to see any during 2022. Jarvis Landry is with the team now, plus the Saints snagged Chris Olave in the NFL draft back in April.
We saw a different version of Winston to start last season. The former No. 1 overall pick got off to an impressive start, completing 59% of his passes and posting 1,170 yards, 14 touchdowns, and just three interceptions in the first seven games. But now he has the talent around him to integrate some of the old YOLO Winston vibes back into his game.
The Falcons didn’t get much better over the offseason after ranking 31st vs. QBs and 29th in EPA/dropback. Look out for Winston to potentially crack the top 10 in Week 1.
Sit: Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins vs. NE
This has nothing to do with my season-long expectations for Tua Tagovailoa. I genuinely hope he has a great year and shuts people up. But in Week 1, for the most part, I try to limit my risks and exposure to unknown situations.
Right now, Tua is one of those. The additions of Tyreek Hill and Mike McDaniel are massive. The improved OL should be a significant boost as well. But excuse me if I’d prefer to see what it looks like first before trusting a guy we’ve yet to be able to trust.
Last season, the Patriots allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to QBs (13.8), and while Tua is 3-0 vs. Bill Belichick, he’s averaged 152 yards with a 1:1 TD to INT ratio against them. I remain hopeful for the season but will opt to sit Tua in fantasy for Week 1 and wait for more information.
Sit: Justin Fields, Chicago Bears vs. SF
Justin Fields is one of my breakouts at QB, but much like Tua, I have my reservations in Week 1. The Bears have one of the weakest rosters in the NFL and did little to nothing this offseason to improve it. After losing Allen Robinson in free agency, they replaced the multi-time 1,000-yard receiver with a 25-year-old special teamer and the Chiefs’ former No. 4/5 receiver.
Last season, the 49ers held opposing QBs to just 14.9 fantasy ppg and are just as scary in 2022. Field’s upside is purely based on his rushing ability, and it could very well be enough to keep him afloat. But given the number of quality QBs in favorable matchups, I’d sit Fields against the 49ers and trust a QB with more fantasy football appeal in Week 1.
Fantasy football start/sit players for Week 1 | Running backs
Start: Antonio Gibson, Washington Commanders vs. JAX
Few, if any, have been on the fantasy roller coaster more than Antonio Gibson this offseason. He went from seeing his stock rise to plummet in the preseason, with even some wondering if he had lost his starting job. But with Brian Robinson out, Gibson is a starting option for fantasy in Week 1 against the Jaguars.
While he’ll have to fight with J.D. McKissic, that’s nothing new. Last year, between Weeks 1-11, before McKissic was injured, Gibson averaged 16.6 carries and 2.7 targets a game as the RB17 in fantasy. Jacksonville gave up the 10th-most yards last year and ranked tied for third-most in touchdowns allowed with 12.
Improvements were made, including No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker and LB Devin Lloyd, yet I still favor Washington in this matchup. Until Robinson returns, Gibson should be in the mid-RB2 mix for fantasy, leaving the matchup to determine if he is a starter or sits on the bench.
Start: Rashaad Penny, Seattle Seahawks vs. DEN
I have no confidence in how this backfield will shake out one way or another. Kenneth Walker III was the best pure rusher in the class, but when healthy, Rashaad Penny is special.
Finally healthy for the first time, from Weeks 14-18 last season, Penny averaged 18.4 rushes for 134.2 yards and 1.2 TDs per game to close out the season as the RB1 (22.0 PPR/game). Rushing for over 135 yards in four of five games, Penny has now posted at least 100 yards in six of the seven career games in which he received 12+ carries.
Walker is expected to miss Monday night’s game, making this one of the few times it will be the Penny show. The Week 1 matchup is not great against Denver, but Pete Carroll is stubborn and will want to keep the ball on the ground as much as he can with Geno Smith under center. Penny comes in as the RB23 in PFN’s Week 1 fantasy football rankings, placing him in the start category for your lineups.
Sit: J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens @ NYJ
Ideally, I want nothing to do with players who are injured coming into Week 1. Even in a good matchup, we’re asking for trouble. That’s the approach I have and am taking with J.K. Dobbins. As a rookie, Dobbins led the NFL in yards per carry (6.0), but he lost his 2021 season due to a torn ACL.
While he avoided the PUP, there is concern, no matter how much he wanted to deny it on social media, that Dobbins is not at full strength. We are not even sure if Dobbins plays in Week 1. If he does, expect a snap-count limit and for Mike Davis and even Kenyan Drake to be rotated similarly to what they did last year with Latavius Murray and Devonta Freeman.
The Jets were third-worst in points allowed to the position last year, and the Ravens have a scheme that produces quality fantasy RBs, but I’m not risking my opening week on a hope and a prayer.
Suppose Dobbins is himself down the road. Great, he’ll be a starter once again. But for now, I would sit Dobbins in Week 1 until he proves his knee is no longer an issue.
Sit: Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons vs. NO
Cordarrelle Patterson was arguably last season’s biggest surprise. Despite his age, Patterson managed a top 10 season. But can he do it again?
I’m worried about any player not named Drake London or Kyle Pitts on the Falcons offense. In Week 1, that’s honestly just Pitts since London is making his NFL debut against Marshon Lattimore, one of the best CBs in the NFL.
With both Damien Williams and Tyler Allgeier in the mix, Patterson will be stuck in a problematic committee situation. All of his value needs to come via the passing game. In fairness to Patterson, that worked last year. He had a monster performance against the Saints in Week 9 with six catches for 126 yards to go with nine carries for 10 yards. But in the Week 18 rematch, Patterson was held to just four carries for 11 yards and a catch for one yard.
No team allowed fewer points to opposing RBs last year than New Orleans (18.37), and with Marcus Mariota under center, it remains to be seen if RBs will see the same target volume. I’d sit Patterson in Week 1 against the Saints if possible and target a higher-upside fantasy football option this week. He comes in 32nd amongst RBs in the rankings.
Fantasy football start/sit players for Week 1 | Wide receivers
Start: Sammy Watkins, Green Bay Packers @ MIN
I honestly can’t believe it has come to this. It’s Week 1. Basically, everyone is available. But I’m writing out Sammy Watkins in a start/sit article. It was almost inevitable it came to this.
Having been listed as doubtful after missing practices (ankle), Allen Lazard is unlikely to play. Add in two rookies in Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, and all of a sudden, Watkins is looking like Aaron Rodgers’ top target.
No one shows up to Week 1 like Watkins. 27.3 fantasy points. That’s what Watkins has averaged over his last three opening games. He has 20 receptions on 28 targets for 376 yards and four touchdowns during that span.
I hope you don’t need to start Watkins in Week 1. If you are, it’s either a deeper league or something went wrong. But for as odd as it might feel, you could do worse. Watkins has moved up to WR43 in PFN’s Week 1 rankings, making him a starting-caliber option.
Start: Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars @ WAS
The Jaguars have a new feel to them in 2022. They tried to wipe the slate clean in the offseason, adding a new head coach in Doug Pederson and a new WR1 in Christian Kirk.
After receiving a massive contract in the offseason, Kirk was brought in to be Trevor Lawrence’s top target. Kirk broke out last year after moving into the slot (78% in 2021), the same place he’s lining up in Jacksonville. There should also be plenty of volume. Only once in Pederson’s five years in Philly did the Eagles finish outside the top 10 in pass attempts.
CB Benjamin St-Juste is moving to the slot and will cover Kirk. That’s a big deal as St-Juste allowed 24 of 37 passes to be completed for 357 yards (14.9 YPC) with two touchdowns last year.
With Chase Young on the PUP, I like the upside of the Jaguars’ new offense against a Washington defense, which ranked 28th in EPA/dropback, 32nd in points to QBs, and 27th in points to WRs.
Sit: Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns @ CAR
Ask the Cleveland Browns (or their fans) yourself, and Week 1 is a must-win game. Normally, that wouldn’t be the case for a random game against the Panthers, but with Baker Mayfield now on the other sidelines, things are personal.
Amari Cooper is the unquestioned No. 1 target for the Browns. Unfortunately, those targets are coming from Jacoby Brissett, not Deshaun Watson. The seven-year veteran is coming off a down year. The WR27 of 2021 recorded 68 receptions on 104 targets for 865 yards with eight touchdowns, tied for the team-high with Dalton Schultz.
It was the first season since 2017 where Cooper failed to reach 1,000 receiving yards. There were plenty of opportunities, as Cooper recorded a 19% target share, 31% WR target share, 25.7% of the air yards, and a career-high 19 red-zone targets.
Until Watson is back, Cleveland will rely on the rushing game, which had always worked and guided them when QB play was suspect at best. Cooper is likely to match up with Donte Jackson and Jaycee Horn on Sunday. Jackson allowed a 65% catch rate and an 89.0 passer rating when targeted, while Horn saw 95 coverage snaps before his injury, allowing only allowed a single catch on five targets.
Cooper is one of the best route runners in the NFL and should be able to get loose a few times, but the quality of looks by Brissett has me worried for both his floor and ceiling. I’m sitting Cooper if I can in Week 1 as he comes into the start of the season as the WR41. Odds are you likely have better options available.
Sit: Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks vs. DEN
Tyler Lockett was already a boom-or-bust guy for fantasy. Since 2018, Lockett has finished in the top 16 WRs in PPR formats every year. Great. But over that stretch, Lockett was a WR3 or worse in 59% of his games.
In 2019, five games accounted for 59 of Lockett’s 110 targets (53.6%), 48 of his 82 receptions (58.4%), 605 of his 1,057 yards (57.24%), and four of his eight TDs (50%). In 2020, six of his 16 games accounted for 49% of his targets, 50% of his receptions, 49.6% of his yards, and 90% of his TDs. Last year, Lockett wasn’t even startable in seven of the first 10 weeks, with six performances outside the top 36 and a bye in Week 9.
What are we expecting with him going from Russell Wilson at QB to Geno Smith while at the same time taking on a great secondary led by Patrick Surtain II at CB and maybe the best safety duo in Kareem Jackson and Justin Simmons?
I’ve done what I can to avoid this offense, and in Week 1, I’ll be doing the same thing in most cases. Lockett does have some upside, but the unstable floor and uncertainty have me sitting him this week.
Fantasy football start/sit players for Week 1 | Tight ends
Start: Albert Okwuegbunam, Denver Broncos @ SEA
Albert Okwuegbunam heads into Year 3 with a massive opportunity as the TE1 after an offseason that saw Noah Fant leave in part of the Wilson trade. The 6’6″ tight end from Missouri is one of the most athletic players in the NFL at his position. You rarely see a player his size run a sub-4.5 40-yard dash.
Although he saw minimal action last season, there were flashes. Albert O hauled in 33 of his 40 targets for 330 yards and two touchdowns. Although it doesn’t sound like a lot, he was actually tied for the third-highest target rate per route run in the NFL last season at 23%.
With Tim Patrick (ACL) and rookie Greg Dulcich (PUP) out for Week 1, Albert O has an excellent chance for a big week against the No. 25 ranked defense against tight ends last year. The TE12 on the week, watch out for Albert O to find the end zone against the defense that gave up the fourth-most TDs last year.
Start: Mo Alie-Cox, Indianapolis Colts @ HOU
My sneaky starter for deeper leagues is Mo-Alie Cox. While we talk about Matt Ryan and his affinity to his WR1, not enough love has been shown to his tight ends. Ryan has supported multiple fantasy-relevant TEs over his career, including Kyle Pitts (110 targets), Hayden Hurst (88 targets in 2020), and Austin Hooper (83.3 target average from 2017-2019).
If Alie-Cox has the full-time gig, watch out. Houston was 24th vs. TEs last year, and we could see Alie-Cox — the NFL wingspan record-holder — find his way into the end zone.
Sit: Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins vs. NE
After TE7 and TE9 finishes over the last two years, respectively, Mike Gesicki is far less stably for fantasy football in 2022. While Jaylen Waddle lost value with Hill’s addition, so did Gesicki, who is primarily a stand-up tight end that plays in the slot over 90% of his snaps.
That doesn’t work in a McDaniel offense where TEs are integral parts of the blocking game. It’s why George Kittle is so darn impactful for them. Gesicki, however, is not Kittle. He isn’t even Durham Smythe or Hunter Long as a blocker. It’s why we saw Gesicki playing into the fourth quarter of the preseason, with him even saying he had a lot to learn.
Hopefully, Gesicki figured out his role in the offense, as you’ll never hear a fantasy manager complain about there being too much depth at TE. But for Week 1, I’ll take a wait-and-see approach against a Patriots defense that has limited Gesicki to 2.6 PPR/game in 2021 and allowed the third-fewest points overall. Coming in outside the top 20, I would sit Gesicki for fantasy football in Week 1.
Sit: Hunter Henry, New England Patriots @ MIA
The TE10 of 2021, Hunter Henry finished there because he led the position with nine touchdowns. Outside of that, he averaged just 4.4 targets and 2.9 catches per game last season. Basically, Henry scored or busted with no middle ground. In games where he didn’t score, Henry averaged less than six fantasy points a game.
Miami played tight ends hard last year, allowing only six passing TDs to the position. There’s enough concern for how this New England offense will look without Josh McDaniels for me to be cautious on how I approach someone as TD-dependent as Henry. If he scores, great, but if he doesn’t, you’ll wish you opted to sit Henry in Week 1.
