In need of a fantasy football win? We aren’t too far from the midway point of our regular season, and you can’t afford to fall too far behind. I’m here to help you break those ties and have your team pointing in the right direction when Week 4 is all said and done.
Which Players Should You Start in Week 4?
All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers (at IND)
The Colts gave up over 150 rushing yards to Joe Mixon in Week 1 and Josh Jacobs in Week 2 before slowing Chicago’s excuse for a run game last week.
Yes, it’s still safe to label this defense vulnerable. After Najee Harris dominated the Week 3 usage (18-3 edge over Jaylen Warren in carries, 5-1 in targets), he’d be an RB2 this week if I was sure he was going to play a full complement.
It looks like Harris being seen in a sling was more precautionary than anything, so hopefully, we see him for a full outing against Indianapolis.
Saw Najee Harris was in an arm sling today.
Here is his last run of the game. He was flexing in celebration. Even hit the Chargers with the too small. Stayed in for the QB kneels. Hopefully just precautionary. pic.twitter.com/CZPS1iUdYI
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) September 24, 2024
You’ll need to track Harris’ status. He hasn’t missed a game in his NFL career, so it’s very possible that he will play through the pain and into your lineup this weekend.
Carson Steele, Kansas City Chiefs (at LAC)
Isiah Pacheco vacated 20.5 touches and 94.5 total yards per game, a role that Carson Steele seems poised to assume the majority of. He’s obviously not Pacheco, but Steele runs with a similar “hit or be hit” style.
That allowed him to pick up at least five yards on 47.1% of his carries, receiving his first taste of an RB1 role that he should hold through October at the very least.
#Chiefs HC Andy Reid on Carson Steele:
“For his first game, I thought he did a really nice job. He’s gotta do a couple things on protection, but he’ll take care of that… He gives you an honest down. He’s gonna run hard. He’s a big kid. He’s gonna come at ya.” pic.twitter.com/XaHE79WQGe
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) September 25, 2024
Steele’s head coach, Andy Reid, had plenty of positives to say about him.
“For his first game, I thought he did a really nice job. He’s gotta do a couple things on protection, but he’ll take care of that… He gives you an honest down. He’s gonna run hard. He’s a big kid. He’s gonna come at ya.”
This role is going to land Steele around RB20 in my weekly rankings, with a slight adjustment in either direction based on the matchup.
With the uncertainty around Kareem Hunt’s involvement and the fact that the Chargers own the third-highest rush success rate thus far, Steele is a Flex play for me more than an RB2. Nevertheless, I’m still playing him in most spots in which I have him.
Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars (at HOU)
If the Jaguars are going to bounce back, I think Christian Kirk holds the key. His versatility is often overlooked, and I think fantasy managers have a chance to capitalize on it now before it’s too late.
I would really like to see Christian Kirk utilized more in the #Jaguars offense. He’s their best WR.
vs. BUF:
• +12.1% CPOE
• +3.7 Rec EPA
• 3.2 avg. separation
• 8 catches
• 10 targets
• 79 yards pic.twitter.com/LencMhiIW5— Jared Feinberg (@JRodNFLDraft) September 26, 2024
Through three weeks, Kirk owns the fifth-highest aDOT (average depth of target) for a sub-6’ receiver with a mark that is up 13.1% from last season. Due to Calvin Ridley taking his talents to Tennessee, Kirk is being used more vertically but without leaving the slot.
Kirk has accounted for 44.4% of Jacksonville’s slot targets and 47.4% of its slot receptions, a nice role to take into a matchup that has allowed a league-high four slot scores.
After a disaster of a start to the season, the slot savant was a rare Jaguar who showed up last week (8-79-0 on 10 targets), and I think we see more of the same in another positive script for Jacksonville’s passing attack.
Diontae Johnson, Carolina Panthers (vs. CIN)
If our QB grades don’t give you enough context, the ineptitude of Bryce Young was on full display in Week 3 as Andy Dalton was able to come off the bench and make Diontae Johnson look like a Hall of Famer.
A perfect TD pass from @andydalton14 🎯
📺: #CARvsLV on CBS/Paramount
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/2XXFJuVoYc— NFL (@NFL) September 22, 2024
Johnson’s production in 2024
- Weeks 1-2: 21.8% target share and a 41.7% catch rate
- Week 3: 37.8% targets share and a 57.1% catch rate
The touchdown Johnson scored on Sunday was a five-yard dime from Dalton. As the unquestioned WR1 in an offense that figures to be playing catch-up, Johnson is a top-25 option for me and could reasonably be played over Tyreek Hill.
It’s a crazy world out there, and we’re still in September.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (at CAR)
Tee Higgins returned to action last week, and that was good to see. However, I’d argue that the bigger impact from Week 3 was confirmation that this team has no interest in defending.
This season, when trailing, NFL teams have dropped back to pass 66.5% of the time; that, as you’d expect, dwarfs the rate for teams when leading (49%). That makes me think that two-week segments where Joe Burrow throws 74 passes (52 completions for 582 yards and five scores) will be more of a norm than an outlier.
If the Week 3 Panthers show up in Week 4, what we saw from the Bengals on Monday night against the Commanders could happen again. That game script allows Burrow to crack the top five at the position this week as he faces a defense lit up by Derek Carr in Week 1 (200 yards and three touchdowns on 23 passes). After all, he still has the combination of Ja’Marr Chase and Higgins catching the ball.
Joe Burrow's 41-yard touchdown pass to Ja'Marr Chase was the duo's 13th deep touchdown since Chase entered the NFL in 2021, 2nd-most among QB-receiver duos in that span.
Only Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill have combined for more among duos (14).#WASvsCIN | @Bengals pic.twitter.com/ibNGDQNjrc
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 24, 2024
Burrow and his frosted tips receive a lot of negative attention because of Cincinnati’s limited success, but the man has averaged over 10 yards per completion in five of his past seven games. The two exceptions over that stretch were games against elite defenses in Baltimore and New England.
I think we can agree that Carolina’s defense isn’t in the same zip code as either of those units.
Mike Gesicki, Cincinnati Bengals (at CAR)
The Mike Gesicki mold might not be for everyone, but he’s essentially a receiver in an offense that we believe, on any given week, has top-10 upside. Gesicki’s usage this season has been in line with what we’ve come to expect (play roughly half the snaps and run a route on north of 90% of his reps), and that’s allowed him to catch at least three passes in all three weeks this season.
If that sounds like an incredibly low bar, that’s because it is. That said, it is a bar that only five other tight ends have cleared this season, something that speaks to the value of a skill set like Gesicki’s.
He’s not a game-breaker, but Gesicki is someone that Burrow trusts. By spending 55.3% of his time in the slot this season, he seems to be the answer as to who will fill the Tyler Boyd role.
I don’t think you’re losing ground on the majority of your league by plugging in Gesicki, and if you can survive the TE position with relatively no investment, you’re moving in the right direction.
Which Players Should You Sit in Week 4?
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots (at SF)
Last week was exactly what everyone feared coming into the season — it just took two strong games to get there. The Patriots were projected for fewer than five wins coming into this season, an expectation that carries without it the expectation of a negative game script.
That wasn’t at all the case through two weeks, which allowed Rhamondre Stevenson to score a pair of touchdowns while getting his hands on the ball 51 times. The six touches he got last Thursday night against the Jets isn’t the new norm (Stevenson missed some time with a finger injury), but I’d bet the under on 2.5 more games with 23+ touches — a mark he reached in Weeks 1-2.
To make matters worse, Stevenson lost a fumble and left you with 0.3 fantasy points in Week 3, likely costing you the week unless you had a superhero performance elsewhere. He showed his burst on one play Thursday night, but it was called back by a penalty.
A big run by Rhamondre Stevenson is wiped out by a facemask penalty pic.twitter.com/FlBCo1MFBf
— Ben Brown 🌻 (@BenBrownPL) September 20, 2024
I thought Antonio Gibson showed some juice and could make this something of a committee situation when New England is playing from behind, something I expect to be the case for the majority of this contest.
Stevenson is a Flex option at best this week. I understand where you may be backed into a corner, but I’d rather chase upside receivers at my Flex position if at all possible.
There will likely be another game at some point this season where the Patriots overachieve. Hopefully, it comes soon and affords you the option to sell their starting RB after you failed to do so following the aberrational beginning of the season.
Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts (vs. PIT)
Yes, I get that he was banged up last week, but the fact that we were celebrating a 36-yard performance due to it being a season-high in yardage is a problem.
I talked about it on Monday’s PFN Fantasy Football Podcast, but this very much feels like a round-peg-square-hole situation. Nothing Michael Pittman Jr. excels at matches up with what Anthony Richardson wants to do, and that is going to lead to an awfully low floor.
To complicate matters further, Josh Downs came back from an ankle sprain last week and earned five targets in the short-to-intermediate passing game, the land in which Pittman lives. The pie was small to begin with when it came to those chain-moving targets, and with another person pulling up a chair, I’m not sure there’s enough food at the table to make anyone happy.
Of 77 qualified receivers this season, the Colts have two of the bottom five in terms of PPR points against expectation (Pittman and Adonai Mitchell). They also happen to have the leader in that metric (Alec Pierce). If that doesn’t paint the picture of what this Colts offense is, nothing will.
Pittman has the potential to earn his way back into my lineups because of his track record of earning targets, but he’s outside of my trust circle right now.
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (vs. PIT)
This is getting ugly in a hurry. Last week, Richardson threw one of the worst end-zone interceptions you’ll see on his way to a second straight finish outside of the top 20 performers at the position.
How long ago does that QB2 finish in Week 1 feel?
Bears pick it off in the end zone!
📺: #CHIvsIND on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/Ya6gUPOYnG— NFL (@NFL) September 22, 2024
I think better times are ahead, and this physical profile could result in a spike at any time, but asking Richardson to break out of this funk against the league’s top defense in terms of first downs, touchdowns, third-down conversion rate, red-zone touchdown rate, and goal-to-go efficiency is … well … it’s a lot.
I’d cite game flow as a potential positive against an undefeated Steelers team, but Pittsburgh is operating at the fourth-slowest pace and is winning games by keeping its opponent off the field.
Richardson picked up 11.6 fantasy points with his legs in Week 1, but he’s managed just 6.1 points on the ground since thanks, in large part, to a lower out-of-pocket passer rating than the recently benched Bryce Young.
If you had told me a month ago that there would be any week this season where I’d have Richardson ranked outside of my top 15 at the position, I would have said you were crazy. And I would have bet the house that such an instance wouldn’t present itself before the end of September.
Well, here we are. Richardson is not a starter for me this week, and he’s not even my favorite option in this game at the position.
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens (vs. BUF)
- Cade Stover: Kitchen appliance salesman or NFL player?
- Dan Eaton: Local food expert or NFL player?
- Payne Durham: WWE stage name or NFL player?
- Jake Tonges: Ear, nose, and throat doctor or NFL player?
Three of those four are NFL players who ran more routes in Week 3 than Mark Andrews, and one isn’t. Can you tell the difference?
The casual fan might not be able to, which is alarming for Andrews’ status moving forward. It’s not as if Isaiah Likely was out there running circles around the Cowboys, yet he ran 11 routes to Andrews’ six on 17 Lamar Jackson dropbacks — meaning the two TE sets, for a week at least, were a thing of the past.
Of course, Baltimore’s control of this game and recording three times as many rush attempts as passes are to blame for this in a significant way. But I wouldn’t have said a snap-share/route-participation metric like that was even within the range of outcomes for the not-so-long-ago Tier 1 tight end.
The state of the position means Andrews remains borderline startable in a game that should see plenty of points put on the board. Unfortunately, any hope of returning value on your summer investment is long gone.
Each of Baltimore’s next four games comes against offenses that can function at a high level and, thus, demand offensive aggression from the Ravens or a complete disaster on the defensive end.
Andrews has a chance to rebound in short order and is a viable buy-low option for aggressive managers who are confident in their ability to stream the position should these struggles continue.