We are now 10 weeks into the 2022 fantasy football season and have a better idea of what these teams are. Fantasy decisions will only get more difficult from here on out, so let’s take a look at our RB start/sit Week 11 plays. Before you set your lineups, be sure to check out our complete Week 11 fantasy football PPR rankings.
Week 11 Fantasy Football RB Start ’ems
David Montgomery, Chicago Bears (at ATL)
The entire thesis behind starting David Montgomery this week is a return to a bellcow role with Khalil Herbert injured.
Herbert hurt his hip in Week 10 and was unable to return to the game. Hip injuries can last a couple of days (as seems to be the case with Leonard Fournette) or season-ending. On Tuesday, the Bears placed Herbert on IR, sidelining him until at least Week 16.
Last week, Montgomery wasn’t able to produce against a very poor Lions run defense. Why? He only carried the ball nine times and only saw a single target. Montgomery simply isn’t good enough to produce without volume.
His snap share remains around 70%, but Herbert is seeing just as much volume on his 35% snap share. Herbert carried the ball 10 times to Montgomery’s nine last week despite missing the latter portion of the game. Fantasy managers need Montgomery to once again have this backfield to himself. It appears that may very well happen.
The matchup couldn’t be juicier. The Falcons allow the 11th-most fantasy points to running backs. While that doesn’t seem amazing, this defense overall just isn’t very good.
The Falcons allow 25 points per game, the sixth-most in the league. Teams can move the ball against the Falcons at will.
Justin Fields has accounted for 11 touchdowns in his last three games. Eventually, regression has to hit, and some of those will go to the running backs. If Montgomery once again has this backfield to himself, he’s a great bet to find the end zone. I will chase that in a week where a medley of fantasy starters are on bye.
Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson, Washington Commanders (at HOU)
The Commanders unexpectedly had a neutral to positive game script throughout their win against the Eagles. As a result, they were able to limit Taylor Heinicke to 29 pass attempts while handing the ball off to Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson a total of 40 times.
On a bit of a negative note, neither back was efficient. Gibson averaged 3.14 yards per carry. Robinson averaged 3.31 YPC. Fortunately, both punched in a short touchdown.
I am fully on board with chasing touchdowns, though. I’m also on board with attacking the Texans’ laughably bad run defense. My favorite prop on Underdog Fantasy last week was Saquon Barkley higher than 95.5 rushing yards against this Texans run defense. Why? They can’t stop anyone.
The Texans allow 32.4 PPR fantasy points per game to running backs, 2.5 more than the second-worst team. They allow 156.3 rushing yards per game to running backs, 22.9 more than the second-worst team.
They are even vulnerable through the air, surrendering a 21.6% target share to the position. Basically, what I’m trying to say is start your running backs against the Texans.
In the absence of J.D. McKissic, Gibson and Robinson were in a 50-50 timeshare. I expect that to continue. With the Commanders unlikely to see a negative game script, they can continue running the ball throughout. For at least one more week, you can start the Commanders’ backfield.
Week 11 Fantasy Football RB Sit ’ems
Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills (vs. CLE)
Last week, fantasy managers who started Devin Singletary were very pleased. He scored 15.7 fantasy points, his second-highest total of the season. At first glance, that seems impressive. But a closer reveals a much less impressive performance.
Singletary scored his first two rushing touchdowns of the season. That’s right. He scored two touchdowns and still managed just 15.7 fantasy points. That means just 3.7 of his points came from yards and receptions. Well, just yards — Singletary did not catch a pass.
MORE: Week 11 RB Rankings
Therein lies the problem with Singletary. He’s entirely touchdown-or-bust. And he plays on an offense where Josh Allen gobbles up all of the touchdowns. The Bills’ 62% neutral game script pass rate is the fifth-highest in the league. This is not a team that wants to run.
The Browns are an excellent matchup for running backs. They allow the second-most fantasy points to the position. I just don’t think it matters.
Singletary needs a touchdown to produce. He may very well get it. And given the bye week situation this week, fantasy managers may not have a choice. This is more to temper expectations than to expect any sort of spike week from Singletary.
Darrell Henderson Jr., Los Angeles Rams (at NO)
Less than a year removed from winning the Super Bowl, the Rams’ offense has suddenly become a full fade. Without Cooper Kupp, I can confidently say there is not a single Ram worth starting in fantasy football.
Darrell Henderson has kind of been the lead back the past few weeks. His snap share has been a bit erratic. Back in Week 6, it was at 71%. Then it dipped below 50% for two weeks. In Week 10, it was back at 57%.
Regardless, there’s nothing to get excited about here. Henderson carried the ball six times for 21 yards last week. He’s caught just one pass over his past two games.
MORE: NFL Week 10 Recap
Cam Akers played just 10% of the snaps, while rookie Kyren Williams made his return and played 17%. However, most of those snaps were in garbage time, so I’m not sure what to make of them.
Either way, we want running backs with touchdown upside in good offenses. Henderson and the Rams provide neither.
The Saints allow the 11th-fewest fantasy points to running backs. And forget about receiving upside. Just 12.3% of their receiving yards allowed have gone to running backs.
The Rams feel like they’re on the brink of just packing it in for the season. It could happen as soon as this week. If it does, they have every reason to see what they have in the rookie. Fantasy managers cannot trust Henderson. Sit him.
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