Ideally, fantasy football would offer a level playing field where everyone starts on equal footing. However, that is not the case. While efforts are made to ensure fairness, some elements remain inherently uneven. One notable example is draft position. In redraft leagues, which draft slot is best?
Which Draft Position Should Guide Your Fantasy Football Strategy?
Most fantasy football leagues randomize draft order, sometimes using methods like drawing names, online tools, or letting the platform shuffle selections right before the draft. No matter how it’s done, managers can’t influence their spot.
Typically, each slot has an 8.3% chance of being assigned, but not every position is truly equal. The gap between draft spots changes year by year.
Some leagues let each manager select their draft slot. If this is the case in your league, which spot actually offers the biggest advantage?
Draft Slot’s Value Compared to Others
Scott Barrett of Fantasy Points analyzed value over replacement (VORP) by draft slot, and his research showed a top-three pick offered a 114% advantage over one of the last three slots.
Fantasy managers are accustomed to having draft position randomly assigned, so when given a chance to select a different spot, there is a natural urge to break with tradition and try something new.
Presented with the first pick, for instance, some may hesitate, feeling as though they’re missing an opportunity to maximize their choice. This mentality can lead managers to question whether they really want the No. 1 pick or something closer to the center or end.
Over the years, some have wanted a lower pick to secure two specific players; I’ve heard this from others and considered it myself at times, but experience has shown that drafting earlier is generally preferable.
Should You Always Aim for the Earliest Pick?
Generally speaking, drafting earlier is advantageous, but fantasy football is full of nuance and constant change.
Most players compete in leagues with friends or longtime acquaintances, which means familiar draft patterns often emerge. For instance, I’ve known managers who take the same player year after year, regardless of ADP.
Recognizing these league tendencies may allow you to draft later with confidence, knowing your preferred player will still be there. Still, variables are everywhere, and making the right pick each round is difficult. The key is drafting for value—measured against your own rankings and average draft position.
Landing the first overall pick doesn’t guarantee a dominant roster. You’ll still need sharp drafting, savvy management, and a little luck along the way.
If someone nailed the single best pick at every slot (based on end-of-season points), they’d almost certainly win. But since no one knows the outcomes in advance, perfection is impossible.
Looking back at past drafts, it’s easy to imagine alternate paths to victory if you’d only known the results. Choosing the best player in every round would build the strongest team, but that’s unrealistic.
Just remember Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua from two years ago—both went largely undrafted yet blew past expectations.
The truth is, any draft position can produce a champion. Many worry about picking last; yes, it’s less than ideal, but far from a death sentence.
That said, draft order still matters because it limits your choices. For example, holding the No. 10 pick in 2025 means you won’t get Ja’Marr Chase, Jahmyr Gibbs, or Saquon Barkley, no matter how badly you want them.
Some see this as a reason to covet an earlier slot. But even at the top, you’re boxed in. You might want a duo like Amon-Ra St. Brown and De’Von Achane, yet the No. 2 pick makes that pairing impossible.
The takeaway: it’s not always “reaching” if your next pick won’t give you another chance at the player you want.
For these reasons, auction drafts hold appeal; with no position constraints, all players remain possibilities.
Middle Draft Slots Have Unique Benefits
Statistically, picking earlier improves winning odds. Corners are useful for landing two desired players together, but what about the middle?
League dynamics aren’t fully captured by aggregate data. In a choice between late and middle, I’d choose the middle.
Picks 5-8 offer a special advantage: falling value. You might eye a player but hesitate to select him early, hoping he slides. Drafting in the middle means fewer teams to bypass for a falling player to reach you. Picking at the edges requires a player to survive a larger group.
With middle draft slots, each fall in value is an opportunity. You can adjust your plan to capitalize when a great option drops.
Managers sometimes get stuck in predetermined plans. In reality, drafts are dynamic, and sticking too rigidly to a position or strategy can be costly.
Drafting for value, rather than need (with some exceptions), is key. For instance, middle picks allow you to wait a round for an RB2 if value is elsewhere, with less risk of missing all good options compared to corners. Edge spots force managers to reach more frequently, since the time between picks is longer and more players are taken in the interval.
Is Position-Driven Drafting Required?
Last year continued the shift toward early wide receiver picks, a trend that’s continuing in 2025. Elite running backs are still prized, but WRs tend to deliver greater consistency year to year.
With few exceptions, top WRs match their previous ADP, while RBs fluctuate wildly. Landing a premier RB is valuable, but shouldn’t be an automatic first-round move.
Building a winning fantasy roster requires prediction and strategy, but there’s no one-size-fits-all method.
You need a solid plan, but flexibility is vital. Each draft may call for a different approach. Sometimes you should focus on RBs, sometimes you should load up on WRs, and occasionally it makes sense to grab a tight end early.
Whatever your direction, it’s possible to succeed. Just avoid the pitfall of taking kickers or defenses before other starting positions.
Which Slot Should You Choose?
Turning to the specifics for 2025 drafts: if you can select any spot, I still side with No. 1. Ja’Marr Chase is the clear top pick in fantasy drafts. I know this won’t be universal because nothing in fantasy football is… but it should be. Anyone who does not choose Chase with the first pick is objectively making a mistake.
With that said, this is a unique year for the back end. Historically, the problem with the back end of drafts was not necessarily that the player you get in the first round is worse. Of course he is.
There is a clear top six this season. After Chase, it’s Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, and Jahmyr Gibbs in whatever order you prefer. If you pick in the back half, you are getting a slightly lesser, but still elite player.
The problem in the past has been that in the second round, the caliber of player the managers picking at the top were able to draft would be just as good as those at the back end. The second round was very flat. Thus, it was advantageous to pick early.
This season, there’s a pretty significant cliff around pick No. 19. Therefore, those managers picking on the back end are getting that Round 2 advantage to combat the disadvantage in Round 1.
The ideal slot to pick if you don’t get Chase is probably No. 6. You don’t have to choose between the top six; you just get the last one. Plus, you can get another player inside that Top 19ish.
Beyond that, slots 10-12 are strong because there’s a mini-drop off around pick No. 15, allowing you to secure two of those players.
The final variable is the third round. Frequently, there’s a small higher-end pool of players worth grabbing in the front half of Round 3. If you pick early, your odds of securing one from your tier are higher.
This year, I don’t quite see it that way. The third round is pretty flat across the board. There is a drop when you get toward the very end, which is why 11 and 12 may not be ideal, but that’s also assuming the specific players I like are the specific players you like. There are enough players worthy of going in Rounds 3-4 for everyone.
Ultimately, the best course of action is probably to pick as early as you can. However, based on your personal preferences, aside from No. 1, No. 6 looks like the most desirable in the front half and No. 10 in the back half.
