It’s now the middle of August. Training camp has been going on for a couple of weeks, and we’re right smack in the midst of preseason games.
Most importantly, it means we are on the precipice of conducting our many fantasy football drafts. As important as it is to find those players who will outperform their ADPs, it is equally important to avoid the players who finish below them.
With that in mind, here are my top fantasy football busts for the 2024 fantasy season.
Fantasy Football Busts
The term “bust” feels a bit harsh. It’s something about the word. Really all it means is a player we think will finish significantly lower than his ADP suggests he should.
Here are a few players fantasy managers should avoid at their ADPs in 2024 fantasy drafts.
C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans (ADP: QB5)
What?! C.J. Stroud! That’s blasphemy!
I know. I know. And I’ve also gone on record saying I think Stroud is going to have a monster year to the tune of 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns. The problem is that’s what he needs to do just to compete with the rushing quarterbacks.
This isn’t the NFL of 10 years ago. The overall QB1 used to average around 20 fantasy points per game. Some years, way back in the day, no QB got to 20 ppg. Now, 20 ppg can be a back-end QB1.
The example I always point to is 2021 Matthew Stafford. That was the year Cooper Kupp broke every record. In that season, Stafford was an absolute monster. He threw for 4,886 yards and 41 touchdowns — basically what I think Stroud will do this season. Stafford finished as the overall QB11.
For Stroud to live up to his ADP, he not only has to push 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns, but he also needs the other QB1s to stumble a bit. He would need 20-21 ppg to be top five at the position. There’s no realistic path for him to get to 24 ppg.
As great of a quarterback as Stroud is, he’s going too early. While it’s probably harsh to call him a bust, he’s almost certainly overvalued as an early fifth-round pick.
Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seattle Seahawks (ADP: RB17)
It’s really difficult to understand Kenneth Walker III’s ADP.
After a strong rookie season that saw him average 13.5 fantasy points per game, there was an expectation Walker would take a step forward as a sophomore. Instead, he had mostly the same season, averaging 13.3 ppg.
Walker was the overall RB16 as a rookie and RB20 in his second year. Now, with a new coaching staff that did not draft him and a new offensive coordinator who likes to push the ball downfield, there’s progression baked into Walker’s price? Make it make sense.
The Seahawks drafted Zach Charbonnet in the second round last year. Charbonnet was quite good as a rookie. Most importantly, he was the clear preferred option on passing downs.
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Per TruMedia, Charbonnet played 321 snaps on passing downs compared to just 233 from Walker. The Seahawks could be even more pass-heavy this season under offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb.
Walker’s snap share was 54.5% last season. It’s difficult to envision that increasing.
For Walker to live up to his ADP, he will have to do it with efficiency and touchdowns. Well, he scored nine times last season. It’s hard to project him for more. But there’s definitely a world where Charbonnet eats into Walker’s workload more significantly or even flips the timeshare.
All of this is to say Walker is being drafted at his ceiling. The most likely outcome is he finishes in the RB20-24 range, which would make him a disappointment at his ADP.
Trey Benson, RB, Arizona Cardinals (ADP: RB38)
Given that Trey Benson is being drafted as a low-RB3, he’s not the type of player we’d typically look at as a potential bust. But any player is a bust if he finishes well below expectation relative to cost.
James Conner is the clear RB1 for the Cardinals. As of early August, reports out of Cardinals camp were that Emari Demercado was operating as the RB2.
This isn’t necessarily abnormal. Rookies sometimes have to “earn their spot.” But I think fantasy managers are drafting Benson as if his taking over for Conner is an inevitability.
Conner is probably going to get hurt at some point, giving Benson a chance. But the Cardinals like Conner. He’s been very reliable when on the field since they signed him.
I don’t think Benson is actually a threat to Conner’s workload. As a result, I have Benson ranked as my RB46, well below his ADP.
Benson is being drafted as if there’s a path to him earning a meaningful role alongside Conner. I believe the only path for Benson is a Conner injury.
Even if Benson does end up taking over, if Conner remains healthy for the first month of the season, we are likely going to see many fantasy managers drop Benson. That is not the type of player we want to draft.
Stefon Diggs, WR, Houston Texans (ADP: WR18)
Easily one of the most polarizing players in fantasy this season, Stefon Diggs is almost certainly not going to be the WR18.
Either I’m correct and he’s a mega bust who finishes well below where he’s being drafted, or I’m wrong, he’s still got it and is a WR1. I really don’t see anything in between as likely.
With Diggs, it comes down to what you attribute as the reason for his objectively disastrous second half to the 2023 season.
From Week 10 through the end of the season, Diggs averaged 9.8 fantasy points per game. If fantasy managers could’ve seen the future after Week 9, forget about merely benching him — Diggs would’ve been dropped universally.
Now, we’re supposed to just act like that didn’t happen and draft Diggs as a mid-WR2?
It’s not like his situation got better. Sure, Stroud is awesome. But in Buffalo, Diggs was competing with no one for targets. Now, he’s competing with Nico Collins and Tank Dell, two receivers who were better than him last season.
Diggs is 30 years old. After averaging 2.87 yards per route run in 2022 (third in the league), that number fell to 2.03 (31st) in 2023. His 7.4 yards per target was a whopping two-yard decline from the previous year, taking him from 17th to 62nd.
Diggs’ supporters point to the shift in offensive philosophy after Joe Brady took over for Ken Dorsey as offensive coordinator. From Weeks 1-9, the Bills had a 59% neutral game script pass rate. From Week 10 onward, their neutral game script pass rate was a paltry 47%, the second-lowest mark in the league.
That obviously didn’t help. But it doesn’t explain why when the Bills did call passing plays, they weren’t to Diggs. From Week 10 onward, Khalil Shakir totaled 387 receiving yards. Diggs had just 349. There’s really no way to spin this as a positive for Diggs.
I’ve taken the position that Diggs is no longer an elite player. He will still have his games. As Collins and Dell put pressure on defenses, there will be games where Stroud peppers Diggs with underneath targets, making him a glorified Jarvis Landry.
I have Diggs ranked as my WR28 and, as you might imagine, will be drafting him nowhere.
George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (ADP: WR28)
A WR28 price tag isn’t unreasonable for an NFL team’s WR1. I just struggle to see the upside with George Pickens.
Well, I shouldn’t see I struggle to see it. I do see it. Pickens is a talented player. We’ve seen him post mega-elite games, such as his 35.5-point effort in Week 16 last season. He is capable. So is Drake London, a player I think is more talented than Pickens.
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London finished outside the top 40 WRs in his two seasons on the Falcons, playing in an Arthur Smith offense. Yes, Russell Wilson and Justin Fields are a lot better than Desmond Ridder for Pittsburgh. However, the concerns are the same. Where is the volume coming from?
Pickens will benefit from Diontae Johnson being gone. He’s the clear WR1 with minimal target competition. But, again, so was London, and Smith couldn’t figure out how to use him. I fear Pickens is destined for a similar fate.
As my WR38, I am out on Pickens this season.