One of the key elements of building a winning fantasy football roster is identifying the potential breakouts for the upcoming season. If you can find those players who can take the next step in their careers and get them at their pre-breakout price, it can add a huge amount of value to your team. Let’s take a look at five potential breakouts that you should keep in mind entering your 2022 fantasy football drafts.
2022 fantasy football breakouts
Davis Mills, QB | Texans
There was a lot to be excited about from what we saw of Davis Mills in his rookie season. The young QB completed 66.8% of his passes for 2,664 yards with 16 touchdowns in 11 starts and 13 game appearances. The 10 interceptions are less ideal, but the signs were there that Mills can be an intriguing QB option for fantasy managers.
Things are set for Mills’ development to continue. While normally a change in offensive coordinator and head coach could be disturbing for a young QB — see Daniel Jones’ career for emphasis — things didn’t change all that much for Mills. New head coach Lovie Smith was with the Houston Texans last year, and Pep Hamilton has been promoted from QB coach to OC. Therefore, we should see Mills have continuity of coaching and play-calling heading into 2022.
Equally, the Texans are bringing back several familiar pieces around Mills. Brandin Cooks, Nico Collins, Chris Moore, and Chris Conley all played with Mills last year, as did Pharoah Brown and Brevin Jordan. There are some changes at RB, but Rex Burkhead is expected to be the pass-catching back, and he played alongside Mills last year.
Things are all set up for Mills to develop in 2022. He was a raw talent coming out of college, and he landed in an intriguing situation. Hamilton has a reputation for developing quarterbacks, and he got his hands on Mills as a rookie and has largely had full say in the development of the young QB. We saw some solid fantasy returns out of Mills last season, and he should be able to provide solid QB2 value in an offense that may need to pass a lot this season.
Chase Edmonds, RB | Dolphins
Over the last two seasons, we have seen glimpses of the potential Chase Edmonds can bring to the field. Now in Miami, he has a chance to really put it all together. Last year, Edmonds averaged career-highs in points per game in both non-PPR (8.4) and PPR (11.9) formats. Those returns were good enough for him to finish as an RB3 on a ppg basis.
The problem for Edmonds is that his ceiling was capped by the situation last year. Before his Week 9 injury, he had more than 12 rushing attempts in just one game (Week 7). However, he still averaged 8.5 ppg in non-PPR and 12.2 ppg in PPR across the first eight weeks. In PPR leagues, he only finished with fewer than 10 fantasy points in two of the eight games.
With the Dolphins, there should be more opportunities for rushing work. Raheem Mostert is there, but he’s extremely injury prone and will likely be a situational back. Mostert’s work in the receiving game has also been limited during his career. Therefore, we know Edmonds’ floor is the receiving game work. However, if he can routinely get to 15-20 carries a game, his ceiling is significantly higher than his current ADP.
Nico Collins, WR | Texans
The development of Amon-Ra St. Brown last year is much discussed, but Nico Collins also had a solid season that sets him up well entering 2022. From Week 7 onwards, Collins saw 60% of the snaps in all but one game. He also saw four or more targets in nine of the Texans’ final 10 games of the season.
Yes, there are some concerns. Collins’ 55% catch rate is less than ideal, and he only found the end zone once to go with 446 receiving yards. However, he was the second-most targeted receiver in the red zone for Houston. His nine targets were just one behind Cooks. From Weeks 10-16, Collins saw at least one red-zone target in each game. He also ended on a strong note with his touchdown reception coming in Week 16.
We’ve already discussed the continuity for Mills with Hamilton stepping up to OC. Well, that also benefits the pass catchers. Hamilton was in charge of the Texans’ passing game last year, so we should expect to see similar trends this year. Collins clearly earned the offense’s trust as the season wore on. Of his 60 targets, 30 came in the final five weeks.
That development of trust should now carry over into this season, where he can further build on his rapport with Mills.
Allen Lazard, WR | Packers
You may look at Allen Lazard‘s fantasy returns and say we saw his breakout last year when he topped 100 points for the first time. However, that was largely driven by TD catches as opposed to increased opportunity or improved play.
Lazard’s 2021 season looked very much like his previous two in terms of targets and yards. However, his eight touchdowns were a big jump from a combined six in the previous two seasons.
Now Lazard has a chance to be Rodgers’ No. 1 option following the departure of Davante Adams. Adams led the team with 169 targets last season. Those vacated targets should now filter back into the Green Bay Packers offense, and Lazard is well placed to pick up a significant portion. He has a rapport with Rodgers and has proven reliable, with a career 68.6% catch rate.
Additionally, Lazard was the third-most targeted receiver in the red zone for Green Bay, behind Adams and Aaron Jones. Adams commanded 23% of the targets (27), and those are now opportunities that can go elsewhere. Those targets could almost certainly go to Lazard after his strong finish in the red zone down the stretch last season.
Of Lazard’s 14 red-zone targets, seven came from Dec. 19 (Week 15) onwards. The first three fell incomplete, but the final four were all completions, with three going for touchdowns and a total of 40 yards.
Lazard became a go-to for Rodgers in the red zone, and he performed well in the final three weeks. That trust and belief puts Lazard in the perfect situation to step up in Adams’ absence, both in the red zone and elsewhere on the field.
Cole Kmet, TE | Bears
From a “real-life perspective,” Cole Kmet really broke out in 2021, but he’s yet to be a fantasy football breakout. The Chicago Bears tight end saw 93 targets, catching 60 of them for 612 yards. However, he finished outside the top 15 at the position in all formats. The reason for that? He did not find the end zone once.
The key is that it was not a lack of opportunity. Kmet saw 12 red-zone targets last year and was just one of two receivers not to have a red-zone TD with more than 10 targets (Cole Beasley was the other). Kmet led the team in red-zone targets, and there might even be more available this year.
Firstly, this offense should be more dynamic with Luke Getsy as the new offensive coordinator. Getsy comes in from Green Bay to replace the system under Matt Nagy that had become somewhat turgid and unimaginative by the end.
Additionally, the departures of Jimmy Graham and Allen Robinson have vacated 12 red-zone targets from last year. Pure and simple regression suggests that Kmet will not be held touchdown-less again this season.
Additionally, we could see Kmet top 100 targets in 2022. Those departures have vacated 89 targets, with another 40 having been opened by the departure of Marquise Goodwin and 38 for Damiere Byrd. That is more than 150 vacated targets to be redistributed in 2022.
Kmet has the trust of Justin Fields, and he only needs another 10 to top 100 targets on the season. The extra targets, plus a change in red-zone fortunes, should see him climb into the top 10 tight ends, with the top five more than in reach.
