Before we start talking fantasy football auction draft strategy, let us heed the immortal fictitious words of Matt Damon, through his character Mike McDermott in 1998’s classic film, Rounders.
Fantasy Football Rounders Guide Auction Draft Strategy
Listen, here’s the thing. If you can’t spot the sucker in your first half-hour at the table, then you are the sucker.
If you frequent Pro Football Network and/or Texas Hold’em circuits you know a few things about odds. Odds are, you saw the movie and you are aware this is the very first line.
It is also the truest and can be applied to wagering and gambling aspects of fantasy football.
A savvy auction player will know who he or she can bluff and raise the stakes to burn through their opponent’s dollars. If a “fish” is acting a bit too eager on a player that you don’t want, raise them a buck or five and block what I like to call, “max value.”
Think of a guy like Baker Mayfield, who is a very popular player. I love him in the teen-range in terms of fake dollar amount, but if someone walks in wearing a number six Browns jersey with a 1970’s cheesy-stash, I am thrilled. No max value for that owner because they are paying $25 fake-bucks, at least, to land their dream-crush fantasy player of the season.
How about that New Yorker rocking a Saquon Barkley name t-shirt?, which is a worse tell than Oreos near Teddy KGBs stack of chips. You tip that hand to me and not only am I bidding you until the end, but you may also just have to hit $70 to acquire him. So think of me as the “rake” in this hand. You will be taxed if you make it blatantly obvious you want a top tier guy.
Some may look down on a tactic like this and even call it immoral, but like McDermott says that “Canada” Bill Jones preaches, “It’s immoral to let a sucker keep his money.”
Fictitious or not.
When applied to a fantasy football auction draft, especially when wagering an entry fee, you are in some way shape or form, gambling. Especially with monetary values on players, you are not just drafting, but betting, raising, bluffing, checking, and folding.
Fold or hang tough. Call or raise the bet. These are decisions you make at the table.
Gambling is never a certainty, or else everyone would be living like Joey Knish without a 9 to 5 job. However, like the supporting character masterfully played by John Turturro, I’ll try to illustrate how fantasy football auction drafts, like certain aspects of poker and gambling, happens to be a skill game.
The auction draft is, in fact, the Texas Hold’em of fantasy football much like the popular sport is the “Cadillac of Poker” in tournament play.
Like any good Rounder, whether playing in your normal home game with a few buddies or even as a hanger in a new room, be prepared. Knowing the table and having your strategy mapped out are keys to success; regardless of the cards you are dealt, to an extent.
Without further adieu, as Mike Mc-D tells John Malkovich’s Teddy KGB in the films showdown finale…
Deal ’em.
Let’s work backward. The biggest fear of a poker player is being short-stacked when everyone else around you is having trouble seeing over their chips. A well-organized auction room or online platform will make it easy for a player to see where their opponents stand in terms of the health of their budgets.
There is always a player oblivious to other participants bankrolls. This is a person you must not be, and of course, take advantage of.
When a person’s chip-count or “auction-dollars” become scarce, please be that owner to make a $1 player of theirs turn into a $3 player. Believe me; nothing will insight a pound on the table like spiking the value a few bucks of a player when that potential owner has seven slots to fill and just $8 bucks left.
This is the player on a draw who you need to snuff out, so he or she doesn’t hit their goal on the river. The river being the potentially successful overall strategy to pay for Christian McCaffrey, DeAndre Hopkins, and Patrick Mahomes early, and hope to sit back and relax until everyone else’s money is spent to fill out the team on the cheap with a slew of value $1-$3 players.
Find that owner, and raise when they toss out those buck players. Raise like there is no tomorrow.
Another strategy you need to go in with is another reversal way of thinking. You must go in with 15-20 $1 players for the last few slots of player filling. Have them ready, and if a name is called you want, make sure there is an emergency few bucks left in the bank for just this reason. Realizing you will have a few players who may do exactly what I just mentioned, these are NOT players to name early.
If you have a gem you want to draft or buy for a $1 do not name that name until the very end, obviously. Wait on that rookie you have a sneaking suspicion on that can pay off for you as a potential weekly contributor Week 8 on. Any Andy Isabella fans here?
A few $1 gems to target when stamina and dollars are running out are: Damien Harris, Bryce Love, Dwayne Haskins, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Anthony Miller, Tre’Quan Smith, Parris Campbell
In addition, some $1 Aces up my sleeve that even Ed Norton’s “Worm” would envy include: Willie Snead, Nick Foles, Dallas Goedert, Devin Singletary
Speaking of calling out players when you must nominate, select, or whatever your terminology is, use the misdirection or bluff-name play.
You know someone is taking that veteran on the downward spiral of his career with company in the backfield. This is fantasy football tin. Fools Gold. Like the pocket Ace/King. It looks great at first glance but rarely pays off when the hand is over.
I will call out LeSean McCoy as my first nominated name and then head to the bar, fridge or whatever I need to do to fuel up for the long session ahead.
Call out the unwanted, and let the market crash around you during an auction draft. There is no chance someone is letting me have a player like this at one dollar. I will happily let a Bills fanatic overbid for McCoy, as they reminisce how he helped them win their 2014 fantasy championship. Go ahead and let them outbid themselves for a past their prime player.
Like McCoy, certain players should be “muck-the-hand-players” such as Sony Michel, Leonard Fournette, Sammy Watkins, Emmanuel Sanders, Larry Fitzgerald, and Jimmy Graham.
These are not players to toss valuable chips in the pot with. Don’t overbid on those who can’t get you max value. We pretty much know what we have with these few.
Much like the midpoint of the movie, Damon’s character describes to his mentor, the late-great Martin Landau, that he should only play “premium hands.”
This means to only play hands that can win, clearly, and don’t try to be cute bluffing or trying to catch that draw play, no football/poker pun intended. I mentioned to use the spike-the-cost play on that potential sucker, but timing is everything.
Don’t try to be cute and make that move midway through just to get called on your bluff. If you make that declaration on the wrong guy and turn his $15 value to $17, and get stuck on him, do you really want to live with having two tight ends for a combined 30 plus dollars?
You don’t want to gamble and bluff the wrong player and destroy your previous hands’ profitability.
Bad judgment
Don’t be that person. Know when and where to raise, and if you must outbid aggressively, make sure you will be happy with the player you overpay for. I won’t be too upset with paying a few dollars of a premium to outbid a guy with the same mid-level sleeper thought as mine.
There is a time and a place for everything. Get the guy you want and don’t waste your roll on a rag-play that’s a longshot. Josh Gordon is not miraculously returning and making your 2-7 off-suit into a winner. Don’t be that person.
For example, I will turn into Johnny Chan if someone wants to go heads-up with me on Dede Westbrook. World Series of Poker, flop-the-nut-straight, Chan. I won’t be getting all territorial or brazen when I hear a name like Allen Robinson. Let’s call him the buster straight. No year-to-year consistency.
With the depth at WR, I will not pay for a veteran when I can save my chips for that perfect hand that comes along when I want to bid for an up-and-comer in Tyrell Williams or Curtis Samuel.
Hypothetically, if you budget well and towards the end of the draft there are four players in for Justin Jackson, you may be able to outbid or bully some other bidders around who may have haphazardly spent some extra money. If you are the “chip-leader” and you are battling a few lesser-banked players, fleece them. Squeeze them until you know they can’t afford that sleeper pick, assuming you are unfazed with paying a few bucks more if you can afford it.
Playing steady, winnable hands at decent payout potential may be a better strategy than going “All-in” a few times. An auction and a tournament of Hold’em is a marathon, not at all a sprint.
People insist on calling it luck
Listen, here’s the thing… The fantasy football auction draft is not all luck. It’s the person that comes in prepared, patient, and poised under pressure that is usually left standing come championship time.
Jason Sarney is a writer for the Pro Football Network covering Fantasy Football and Gambling. You can follow him @JSarney_PFN365 on Twitter.
