The mechanics behind building a showdown lineup is very different from anything you do in your season-long league. Heck, it’s vastly different from the process you go through for the Sunday Main Slate.
I’ve got a strong take on the first game of Week 6. Follow me through the process of turning that opinion into DFS picks layered with researched upside.
Week 6 Thursday Night DFS Showdown Picks
All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
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- CPT: Brandon Aiyuk ($12,600)
- FLEX: Jordan Mason ($10,200)
- FLEX: Brock Purdy ($9,400)
- FLEX: George Kittle ($7,400)
- FLEX: Tyler Lockett ($5,400)
- FLEX: 49ers D/ST ($4,200)
Week 6 DFS Pick: Captain Brandon Aiyuk
I think the San Francisco 49ers roll in this game in a significant way. Not only have favorites covered 10 of the past 13 divisional games played on Thursday night by an average of 6.8 points per game (current line: 49ers -3.5), but San Francisco might be the best 2-3 team of all time.
OK, so that’s a little dramatic, but the 49ers have dealt with a variety of injuries, and yet, they’ve still been in position to win more often than not.
When Entering Q4 Up 7+ Points, 2024
- San Francisco 49ers: 2-2
- Rest of NFL: 45-2
I feel good about this position, and because of the raw-game results, we’re getting a bit of a discount in the betting markets. I think that carries over to the DFS Showdown streets, where I imagine a 5-1 build isn’t going to be overly common. I’m almost full-fading the team that leads the league in passing yards.
To build a winning Showdown lineup, you have to tell a story and commit to how. We saw Aiyuk break through an early-season malaise with an eight-catch, 147-yard showing against a vulnerable Arizona Cardinals defense — and I think it’s here to stay.
If you look at a basic stats page through five weeks, you’d be inclined to think that the Seattle Seahawks have an elite defense, but is that accurate? Is it even close to accurate?
- Week 1: Bo Nix
- Week 2: Jacoby Brissett
- Week 3: Skylar Thompson
A team putting up good overall numbers with those QBs accounting for 60% of their opponents doesn’t tell us much about their ability to defend even league-average offenses.
The Seahawks have played Jared Goff and Daniel Jones over the past two weeks, a step up in quarterback play that they haven’t been able to handle. In an effort to isolate a single weakness, I looked at the success rates for target directions, and an eye-popping trend emerged.
- 20 attempts
- 17 completions
- 297 yards
- 3 TDs
- 158.3 passer rating
Are those the numbers I put up in Madden this morning against my five-year-old nephew or the cumulative numbers of Goff and Jones when throwing to the perimeter?
Silver lining: Brandon Aiyuk had a breakout game with 8 catches for 147 yards on 12 targets in Sunday’s loss to AZ 🫡 pic.twitter.com/bRpsB4ecg1
— OurSF49ers (@OurSf49ers)
Aiyuk vacuumed in two-thirds of Purdy’s throws out wide last week. For the season as a whole, he’s seen 42.9% of the 49ers’ perimeter targets (target share otherwise: 11.6%).
Volume can be a moving target in San Francisco due to the number of viable options. But in this matchup, Aiyuk projects as a clear top target.
Since 2023, Purdy’s average depth of throw is 59.7% greater when throwing out wide than otherwise, a level of aggression from an efficient quarterback that I want when paying up for my captain.
Week 6 DFS Pick: Surrounding 49ers
With me feeling good about the 49ers in this spot, we need to load up on their offense in a smart way. In order for Aiyuk to pay off for me, we need Purdy to come along for the ride.
There’s a path to roster four of San Francisco’s five primary fantasy assets. How do we decide?
My story starts with an Aiyuk explosion game, and again, I have to assume that I have the headline correct to maximize this build. Aiyuk has six games since the beginning of last season with at least 20 DraftKings fantasy points. George Kittle has reached 20 points in three of those contests, and that’s three more such instances than Deebo Samuel Sr.
When Aiyuk produces, it seems to come at the expense more of his fellow receiver than anyone else. In four of those six games, the 49ers’ starting running back also hit 20 points. San Francisco’s offense is one that can hand out points to a number of parties, and we have access to the majority of them.
The final piece of the 49ers’ puzzle for this roster is their defense. Since the beginning of last season, teams with a lead have created pressure on 37.2% of dropbacks, a nice bump up from the 33.4% rate for teams playing from behind.
If this lineup has a chance to win, it’s because the offense is putting points on the board, thus putting their defense in a position to be aggressive.
This season, Geno Smith ranks 22nd in passer rating and 24th in interception rate of 28 qualifiers when feeling the heat. To guard against that weakness, the Seahawks have schemed up fast passes (fourth in quick pass rate, up from 23rd last season).
In theory, that’s logical, but since the beginning of last season, the 49ers are a top-six defense in both passer rating and interception rate against those quick-release designs.
Week 6 DFS Pick: Tyler Lockett
I’ve spent a bunch of words talking down the Seahawks, and I do think they are in trouble. However, we need some exposure to the other side from a math standpoint.
Before I looked at pricing, Jaxon Smith-Njigba was my preferred avenue to do so, but the salary cap lands me on Lockett. The more I looked into things, the more I was okay with this downgrade given the roster I could build around him.
The 49ers rank 24th in blitz rate this season and haven’t ranked better than 19th since Nick Sorensen joined the staff. Here are the on-field target splits this season:
Blitzed share vs. Non-blitzed share
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 23% vs. 17.7%
- DK Metcalf: 20.6% vs. 20.4%
- Tyler Lockett: 11.1% vs. 19.6%
The veteran receiver has seen at least six looks in four of five games this season. If he can finish with 4-6 catches and a chunk gain in a game that is already essentially decided, that’s enough to hold up his end of the bargain.
What does your showdown lineup look like for tonight? Send me the picture @KyleSoppePFN and maybe a head-to-head game on DraftKings (KyleSoppe23) and we can sweat this thing together!
