New York Jets wide receiver Elijah Moore had a classic slow start, hot finish rookie campaign. By the end of the season, he had established himself as the Jets’ WR1. With the Jets adding a bunch of offensive talent in the offseason, what can fantasy football managers expect from Moore in the 2022 season, and is he a good value at his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Elijah Moore’s fantasy outlook for 2022
As is the case with many talented rookie wide receivers, Moore was barely part of the offense at the start of the season before working his way into a more prominent role down the stretch. From Weeks 1-7, Moore averaged just 5 PPR fantasy points per game.
Week 8 is when Moore started to turn things around fantasy-wise, but he still wasn’t really part of the offense. In fact, he played a season-low 36% of the snaps that week. However, he was targeted on six of his 19 routes, catching all six for 67 yards. This was really the start of the Jets trusting Moore.
From Week 9 until Moore’s season ended prematurely in Week 13, he was a featured part of the offense. I’m not sure if the fantasy community realizes just how good Moore was over that span, though. Although a five-week sample size is quite small, Moore averaged 20.1 ppg. He was the overall WR3 during those five weeks.
Moore surpassed 500 receiving yards as a rookie, which is a key total in projecting long-term success. Even more impressively, he did it in just 11 games. I have all the confidence in the world that Moore will be a productive NFL receiver for years to come.
How the Jets’ depth chart impacts Elijah Moore’s fantasy projection for the season
The biggest concern for Moore’s fantasy outlook is the depth chart. The Jets re-signed Braxton Berrios. Corey Davis is back and presumably healthy. And they drafted Garrett Wilson in the top half of the first round and Breece Hall in the early part of Round 2. New York also signed two competent tight ends in Tyler Conklin and C.J. Uzomah while also drafting Jeremy Ruckert in the third round.
Can Zach Wilson support multiple fantasy-relevant pass catchers?
There are no excuses for Zach Wilson this year. We will know definitively if he is the Jets’ answer at quarterback.
For Moore, it’s a two-part question:
1) Can Zach Wilson support three to four fantasy-relevant pass catchers?
2) If not, who gets left out?
The good news is the Jets were one of the most pass-heavy teams in the league last season, throwing the ball 61.7% of the time. The bad news is they ran the fifth-fewest plays in the league. We want this team to play faster. Hopefully, with a vastly improved offense and Zach Wilson owning another year of experience, they can do just that.
It’s also worth noting that Wilson is currently out with a knee injury. While it would be problematic if Wilson missed significant time, he’s expected to be back within the first few weeks of the season. That is not enough missed time to downgrade Moore at all.
New York’s offense is neither explosive nor consolidated
Ideally, we want wide receivers on good offenses with consolidated touch shares. The Jets do not project to be either. That’s definitely a red flag on Moore’s fantasy profile, despite how talented many, myself included, think he is.
Last season, Moore posted an 18.6% target share. Once he took over, it was clear the team trusted him to be their top guy. While Garrett Wilson has higher draft capital than Moore, he’s still a rookie. I don’t expect him to come in and overtake Moore immediately. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if he never did.
Berrios was a great story late last season, but he’s still likely no more than a situational slot receiver. As for Davis, it wouldn’t surprise me if he opened the season starting opposite Moore with Garrett coming off the bench. Garrett’s rookie season arc could look similar to Moore’s from last year.
Moore’s ceiling is lower than it would be without all the target competition, but he still projects to be the highest-scoring fantasy receiver on this offense by a decent margin.
Moore’s ADP for 2022
Moore’s ADP is a tough one to crack. He’s going around 80th overall, well behind the other sophomore wide receivers. As the WR33, it’s hard to find any fault with drafting him. While he currently sits 96th overall as the WR38 in our consensus 2022 PPR fantasy rankings, there is a split opinion on him.
Tommy Garrett and I have Moore as a slight value at his current ADP (inside our top 80). Meanwhile, Ben Rolfe has Moore much further down outside the top 120 overall, bringing his ranking below his current ADP.
Moore displayed WR1 upside last season. If Zach Wilson gets better and Moore maintains that role, he’ll be one of the best values in fantasy football.
Even if Garrett Wilson becomes the WR1, Moore is unlikely to be worse than a WR3/4. Moore finishing slightly below where you drafted him is well worth the risk. I just can’t help but wonder if fantasy managers will find that in their home leagues Moore consistently goes well above his ADP.
