The San Francisco 49ers head into a pivotal Week 17 game with their playoff lives on the line. Likewise, fantasy football managers need to come out with a win as they head into championship weekend. While the majority of the conversation surrounds the quarterback position, the backfield situation is in flux once again as Elijah Mitchell is no guarantee to play against the Houston Texans. What is Mitchell’s latest injury update, and could the potential change at QB impact his fantasy value, Jeff Wilson Jr.’s, or the rest of the 49ers backfield in Week 17?
Elijah Mitchell injury update
According to 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan, Mitchell has “a chance” to play in Week 17 against the Texans. Mitchell’s missed the 49ers last three games with a knee injury. Per Shanahan, Mitchell has made progress in his rehab and will be further evaluated as the week progresses. The first step is getting him back to practice.
The 49ers have had some extra time due to their Week 16 game taking place on Thursday Night Football. They were able to get in a practice session on Monday but were not required to publish a participation report, making Wednesday’s report significant as it will show Mitchell’s current health status. Since sustaining a knee injury and a concussion in Week 13 against Seattle, he has not participated in practice beyond working on the side a few times.
Mitchell has played in just eight games this season due to various injuries. But when on the field, he has been electric. He’s averaged 18.3 rushing attempts and 84.3 rushing yards per game while finding the end zone 5 times. He’s also recorded 100+ rushing yards in half of his games. Furthermore, Mitchell has worked as a receiving back for the 49ers, catching 17 of 18 targets for 126 yards.
Averaging 15 PPR points per game, Mitchell has finished as an RB2 or better six times. When healthy, he’s an absolute must-start. Yet, the 49ers have been able to find success with other RBs as the scheme is conducive to offensive production.
Jeff Wilson Jr. has found success as the 49ers’ lead back in recent weeks
As the 49ers’ No. 1 RB, Wilson has been a reliable fill-in with Mitchell battling injury. Last week, Wilson carried the ball 14 times for 45 yards and a score. He also added 3 catches for 12 yards. His 14.7 PPR points were enough to finish as the RB16 on the week, but it was actually a slight drop-off from the week before.
Against the Falcons in Week 15, Wilson rushed for 110 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries while catching 5 of 6 targets for 35 yards. Wilson showed what he could do in a favorable matchup, which he will have once again in Week 17 against Houston.
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Over the last four weeks, the Texans are 31st in fantasy points allowed to the RB position, giving up 32.5 PPR points per game.
Wilson should once again be a heavily utilized back and bring RB2 value for your fantasy championships. However, I would not expect him to be around the 20+ opportunity range due to the change under center.
Trey Lance is expected to start in Week 17 vs. Houston
According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, QB Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a strained UCL and a fracture in his right thumb during Thursday’s 20-17 loss to the Titans. Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports that Garoppolo chipped the bone in his thumb and is highly questionable for Week 17.
Should Garoppolo be unable to suit up, rookie QB Trey Lance will take over as the 49ers’ QB, which would signal a massive shift in how the offense is run. Where Garoppolo is a pocket passer, Lance is one of the more dynamic QBs in the NFL. He showcased his rushing ability while at North Dakota State and earlier in the season. In Week 4 against the Seahawks, he rushed 7 times for 41 yards. He followed that up in Week 5 with 89 yards on 16 rushes against the Cardinals.
I would expect more of the same from Lance in Week 17. Getting Lance outside the pocket and involved in the rushing game puts San Francisco in the best chance to succeed.
It would help to shrink the field and ease decision-making while affording him the ability to take off and run. Plus, getting the ball to guys like Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle on short-to-intermediate routes would take advantage of their after-the-catch ability.
Lance’s rushing ability could come at the expense of 49ers RBs and their fantasy upside
This change in the game plan could be detrimental to Wilson as it reduces some of his rushing attempts. Once Lance came in for Garoppolo for the second half of Week 4, 49ers’ RBs saw just 8 carries. Then, in Week 5, in a game where Lance started, they combined for only 11 rushes.
Whether it is Wilson or Mitchell getting the start in Week 17, fantasy managers might want to consider lowering expectations. Based on the matchup, I would still start either RB. However, the floor could be lower than initially expected due to the lack of volume.
