Making lineup decisions can be the most frustrating — or most rewarding — part of fantasy football. We’re to help you make those decisions with our fantasy start ’em/sit ’em picks.
It’s only Week 4. Our opinions should shift based on what we’ve seen so far, but we still don’t have quite enough in-season data to work with. Nevertheless, we are still evaluating matchups and trying to start the correct players. With that in mind, let’s take a look at our top Week 4 start/sit plays.
Which Players Should You Start in Week 4?
Derek Carr, QB, New Orleans Saints (at ATL)
Last week was the Saints/Eagles shootout that never was. After the Saints and their opponents combined for 57 and 63 points in each of the first two weeks, these two teams totaled 27 points in Week 3. Neither team scored a touchdown until the fourth quarter.
Look for the Saints to get back on track this Sunday in Atlanta against a Falcons defense allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks through three weeks.
The Falcons had a lot of trouble stopping Rashee Rice from destroying them underneath. That bodes very well for Carr’s chances of utilizing Chris Olave all over the field. And if the Falcons key in too much on Olave, Rashid Shaheed should have at least one or two chances to take the top off.
Carr is averaging 17.7 fantasy points per game so far. Normally, those would be mid-QB2 numbers. But in this modern era where no one scores any points, Carr is the QB10. Fire him up against a below-average Falcons secondary in Week 4.
Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns (at LV)
I got a lot of questions last week expressing concern about the Browns backfield and D’Onta Foreman seemingly turning this into a timeshare in Week 2. For some reason, I didn’t really buy it. That proved to a good assessment, as the Browns went right back to heavy Jerome Ford in Week 3.
Ford played nearly 80% of the snaps against the Giants. Although the production wasn’t there, he saw 14 opportunities and had 70 total yards. The issue was mainly he didn’t score.
This week, the Browns get a Raiders defense that was just eviscerated by Chuba Hubbard last week. The Raiders are now allowing 26.8 fantasy points per game to running backs, the second-most in the league. Ford should be able to bounce back nicely in Week 4.
Tony Pollard, RB, Tennessee Titans (at MIA)
Perhaps fantasy managers may be a bit worried after Tyjae Spears outproduced Tony Pollard last week. That was always going to happen eventually, though. And it will happen again. It just won’t happen most weeks.
Against the Packers, the Titans found themselves trailing throughout. This backfield is not a timeshare. Pollard is the primary runner and Spears is the passing-down back. With the Titans facing a negative game script, there was a bit more Spears.
Even amidst the game conditions, though, Pollard still played 62% of the snaps. Spears was only out there for 38%. Pollard also ran 11 more routes than Spears.
We don’t yet know who the Dolphins will start at quarterback. But it doesn’t matter. It’s not Tua Tagovailoa, which means the Dolphins are not going to be forcing the Titans into having to play catch-up. That means Pollard should have plenty of opportunities against a defense allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
Pollard topped 15 fantasy points in each of his first two games. Throw last week’s dud out the window and go right back to the Titans RB1 in Week 4.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks (at DET)
Is Jaxon Smith-Njigba breaking out? Week 1 says no. Week 2 says yes. Week 3 says no again. The erratic nature of his usage and production makes him incredibly difficult to rely on.
Perhaps you are like me. You started him in Week 1, benched him in Week 2, and started him in Week 3. Frustrating, right? This is your reminder to stick with him. Don’t continue to be on the wrong side of JSN.
Despite his down Week 3, Smith-Njigba led the Seahawks in routes run. He is operating as their primary slot receiver, where he’s spent about 75% of his time.
This week, Smith-Njigba gets a Lions defense allowing the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. As is the case with many Lions games, this has the potential to be a shootout. These two teams combined for a 37-31 thriller just one year ago.
Look for JSN to bounce back in a big way in Week 4. Make sure he is not on your bench.
Jayden Reed, WR, Green Bay Packers (vs. MIN)
The Vikings have been slightly below average in defending wide receivers, making this most a neutral matchup. But that’s not what the Jayden Reed recommendation is about.
Reed is virtually matchup proof. Given the way the Packers utilize him with his touches being largely manufactured, he is capable of producing in any given week. As well as Malik Willis has played, he is not good for the fantasy values of any Packers receivers.
Jordan Love was close to returning in Week 3. I expect him back this week in a crucial divisional matchup against the undefeated Vikings.
The Packers still rotate wide receivers at a maddening rate. But in a potential high-scoring contest against the Vikings, Reed should see a bunch of plays designed specifically for him.
Reed saw six targets and two carries last week, which he turned into 69 total yards. The main difference between last week and Week 1 is the lack of touchdowns. Love’s return increases Reed’s touchdown upside. He is a strong WR3 in Week 4.
Dallas Goedert, TE, Philadelphia Eagles (at TB)
It’s really difficult to recommend a tight end to start. This feels like point chasing, but in this case, it’s justified.
The Eagles have been without A.J. Brown for the past two weeks. They just lost DeVonta Smith to a concussion. With a Week 5 bye and the team coming off a win, it seems probable that the Eagles will hold out Brown for one more game and not risk bringing Smith back too quickly.
There is not a lot of depth behind Brown and Smith at wide receiver. As a result, Jalen Hurts looked to his tight end early and often last week.
Dallas Goedert is coming off a career performance, catching 10 of 11 targets for 170 yards. No pass-catcher other than Smith saw more than three.
Dallas Goedert has really stepped up today with injuries to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.
10 catches, 170 yards 😮💨
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) September 22, 2024
Given the state of the tight end, it’s no surprise the Bucs have only allowed 3.2 fantasy points per game to the position. However, Sam LaPorta is the only top tight end they’ve faced. If Goedert enters this week as Jalen Hurts’ only reliable pass-catcher, he should be in for another game of heavy volume.
Which Players Should You Sit in Week 4?
Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts (vs. PIT)
It feels so long ago that Anthony Richardson exploded for 27 fantasy points in Week 1. Since then, he’s posted games of 12.9 and 7.1. He hasn’t been startable.
It has been a ROUGH outing for Colts QB Anthony Richardson today:
– 5/12, 117 passing yards
– 2 INTs
– 37.8 passer rating pic.twitter.com/3Nb1mGfm19— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) September 22, 2024
Better days are definitely ahead against teams with offenses that are more conducive to shootouts. Unfortunately, this week is not one of them.
The undefeated Steelers have benefited from a slew of soft opponents. It wouldn’t surprise me if they stymied the raw sophomore Richardson this week as well.
The Steelers are allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. As if that isn’t bad enough, this game environment couldn’t be worse.
No team has run the ball in a neutral game script more so far than the Steelers, who do so a whopping 62% of the time. They also play slow, averaging the fifth-most seconds per snap. It’s just a really bad spot for a struggling quarterback against a good defense in a game that will likely feature fewer plays and be lower scoring.
J.K. Dobbins, RB, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. KC)
Last week, I put J.K. Dobbins in this section. That worked out, as the Steelers limited Dobbins to 15 carries for 44 yards, keeping him out of the end zone.
This week, Dobbins has another tough test against a Chiefs defense that just shut down Bijan Robinson. The Chiefs are allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs.
Dobbins does look healthy. But I never really bought this notion that he’s suddenly Nick Chubb 2.0. He faced two extremely soft run defenses to open the season.
Against more difficult opponents, Dobbins will be even more reliant on touchdowns. Forgive me for not getting too excited about the prospect of Dobbins going up against the Chiefs with Taylor Heinicke as his quarterback. We’re likely looking at another single-digit week from Dobbins.
Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. PHI)
I’ll just leave this here.
Most yards per carry among 34 RBs with 25+ carries this season:
2. Bucky Irving (6.2)
…
33. Rachaad White (2.1)— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 23, 2024
These two running backs are on the same team running behind the same offensive line. And if one of them were going to benefit from defenses not expecting the run, it would be Rachaad White, as he is the receiving threat.
The talent gap between these two backs couldn’t be larger. Bucky Irving is vastly superior to White as a runner. As he continues to showcase this, White’s rushing market share is bound to continue decreasing.
Meanwhile, White is not exactly excelling through the air. It’s nice that he saw six targets last week, but he caught five passes for 18 yards. Do you know how difficult it is for a running back to catch five passes in a PPR league and not reach double digits?
The Eagles have been an average defense against running backs this season. This is not about the defense, though. This is about an overrated running back losing his grip on the RB1 job. When this timeshare inevitably flips, you don’t want White in your lineup.
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins (vs. TEN)
We are going back to the Jaylen Waddle well for a second week. It can be very difficult for fantasy managers to accept that an objectively talented player has virtually no fantasy value entirely due to circumstances beyond his control.
If Waddle is so good at football (which he is), why is he not even a viable WR3? That is the reality of the game of football and how reliant players are on the rest of their team.
Through three weeks, Waddle has yet to see more than five targets in a game. Last week, he caught four passes for 26 yards with Skylar Thompson at quarterback. The Dolphins scored three points.
I highly doubt Thompson starts this week. But Tim Boyle is not about to make things any better. If Tyler Huntley can get out there, maybe there is hope, but I’m not optimistic.
Waddle averages 10 fantasy points per game without Tua Tagovailoa. He won’t have Tagovailoa this week. The opponent doesn’t matter. Waddle is not a top-36 receiver until he gets his quarterback back.
Tank Dell, WR, Houston Texans (vs. JAX)
I’m taking the L on Tank Dell. I thought his talent would shine through. It has not.
Dell is firmly behind Stefon Diggs, consistently coming off the field in two-receiver sets. Although this hasn’t adversely impacted Dell’s routes run numbers too much, the deliberate targeting hasn’t been there.
Dell has now seen target shares of 15.4% and 12.1% each of the past two weeks. Meanwhile, Diggs has been above that every game this season, topping out at 27.3% in Week 3 in a game where the defense was very conducive to C.J. Stroud peppering Diggs underneath.
There will inevitably be games where Dell takes the top off for a long touchdown. But that’s what it will take for him to be a viable fantasy starter. He’s a boom-or-bust WR3 at best.
This was written before Monday Night Football, but I am going out on a limb and assuming the Jaguars didn’t get torched by the Bills’ cavalcade of misfit wide receivers.
Through two weeks, the Jaguars allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. Dell is not a fantasy starter until he proves otherwise.
Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens (vs. BUF)
As difficult as it is to recommend a starter at tight end, it’s even more difficult to say who to bench. There are exactly two reliable weekly tight ends (Trey McBride and Brock Bowers), and one of them (McBride) might miss this week with a concussion.
It’s easy to say to bench a player coming off a goose egg. So I get it. In fact, as a little preview of the cut list, Mark Andrews’ name appears on it. Nevertheless, given the name value Andrews holds, telling managers it’s fine to bench him has value.
This isn’t about one bad game. It’s about the body of work as a whole. Andrews wasn’t just ignored by Lamar Jackson last week. He wasn’t on the field.
Andrews played significantly fewer snaps than Isaiah Likely. That would be concerning on its own. But Andrews was also out-snapped by Charlie Kolar.
Mark Andrews played 20 snaps (33%) yesterday – third most among Ravens' TEs.
Only 6 of the 20 were pass plays. He ran 4 routes and was targeted once.
Note that he played 69% of the snaps during Weeks 1-2, but only saw 7 targets.
He's literally never been used this little.
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) September 23, 2024
While that is unlikely to be something that translates from week to week, it’s abundantly clear that Andrews is not the same top player we remember. Maybe it’s the injury. Maybe it’s because he just declined earlier than we expected. Either way, Andrews isn’t that guy anymore.
Coming off a game where he played about one-third of the snaps and only saw a single target, Andrews has more than proven he does not belong on fantasy rosters, let alone in fantasy lineups.