The Philadelphia Eagles had victory within their grasp with 1:56 remaining in the game against the Atlanta Falcons on Monday night.
Then, Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni made two controversial decisions that ultimately resulted in the Falcons stealing a win in Philadelphia.
Following Monday night’s meltdown, Sirianni was the primary target of criticism. On Wednesday, Sirianni defended his questionable choices.
Nick Sirianni Doubles Down on Controversial Week 2 Call
With 1:46 remaining in the game, Philadelphia’s offense took the field on third-and-3 with a chance to seal the victory.
While many expected the Eagles to run the ball, including Atlanta’s defense, Philadelphia ran a passing play that was executed to perfection — until it wasn’t.
Saquon Barkley ran toward the sideline uncontested following a fake handoff. Jalen Hurts threw a perfect pass to Barkley for a sure-fire first down.
Despite hauling in his first four targets of the game, Barkley inexplicably dropped the pass.
Former NFL quarterbacks Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, and Matt Ryan reacted to the play live on ESPN’s “Manningcast.”
Peyton Manning is every Eagles fan watching that drop pic.twitter.com/FtWhJjJHze
— Omaha Productions (@OmahaProd) September 17, 2024
While the former star quarterbacks disagreed on whether passing the ball in that scenario was the right decision, the play call was technically successful.
If Barkley catches that pass, the Eagles kneel down the ball and escape with an 18-15 victory in Week 2. We would likely never hear about the percentages that have been the main topic of discussions in recent days.
Following Barkley’s drop, Sirianni made another controversial decision. The Eagles elected to kick a field goal to take a six-point lead instead of trying for a first down on fourth-and-3.
According to multiple analytical models, Sirianni actually lowered the team’s chance to win by settling for a field goal. Sirianni defended his decision on Wednesday.
“I was completely convicted that kicking the field goal there was the right decision based off all my studies,” Sirianni said. “Now, I come back, and I re-evaluate it, and I’m even more convicted.”
While Sirianni would likely never admit that he made the wrong decision, his heightened conviction is worrisome.
Sirianni alluded to his own chart and research, which essentially boiled down to just two plays over the last five seasons.
In those two scenarios, the New York Jets and the Houston Texans each went for it on fourth down and failed to convert. The opposing team went on to march down the field and score a game-winning touchdown.
If those are the two scenarios that Sirianni used to justify his decision in Week 2, it doesn’t make much sense.
Philadelphia settled for a field goal and still allowed a game-winning touchdown on the following drive. Therefore, a six-point lead instead of a three-point lead changes nothing in that scenario.
Sirianni’s Pride Could Lead to His Downfall in Philadelphia
Sirianni’s adamant defense of his controversial decision could be a sign of a much bigger problem in Philadelphia.
The Eagles essentially stripped Sirianni of his offensive play-calling duties in the offseason, hiring Kellen Moore as the team’s new offensive coordinator.
Therefore, Sirianni’s primary focus is to make sure that he is prepared for scenarios like exactly what happened in Week 2. But he made the wrong decision and apparently refuses to learn from it.
According to NFL Next Gen Stats, the Falcons had a 0.7% chance to win with 1:56 left in the game. Sirianni’s decision to kick a field goal actually improved Atlanta’s chances to win.
The Falcons had just a 0.7% chance of winning with 1:56 left in the 4th quarter, according to the NGS win probability model.
The comeback is the 7th-most improbable win in the NGS era (since 2016).#ATLvsPHI | @AtlantaFalcons pic.twitter.com/iZF0nkwHvx
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 17, 2024
The concerning part about this mistake is that it’s become far too common during Sirianni’s tenure as head coach in Philadelphia.
Last season, the Eagles let multiple late-game leads slip away in the final minutes.
In Week 6 against the Jets, the Eagles held a 14-12 lead with under two minutes remaining in the game. Hurts threw a costly interception, and the Jets won 20-14.
In Week 15 against the Seattle Seahawks, the Eagles held a 17-13 lead and faced third-and-7 with 2:15 remaining. Philadelphia failed to convert and the Seahawks marched down the field to win 20-17.
In Week 17 against the Arizona Cardinals, the Eagles took a 31-28 lead with 2:37 remaining in the fourth quarter. The Cardinals moved down the field in two minutes and scored a game-winning touchdown to upset Philadelphia, 35-31.
As you can see, this is quickly becoming a pattern during Sirianni’s tenure. In Philadelphia’s last 14 regular season games, the Eagles have blown multiple fourth-quarter leads with under three minutes remaining in four games.
While it isn’t entirely his fault, Sirianni is going to be held responsible for Philadelphia’s late-game failures.
Following last season’s collapse, Sirianni was already on the hot seat heading into 2024. If he continues to be stubborn and refuses to learn from his mistakes, his days as head of the Eagles could be coming to an end.