The Miami Dolphins have Tua Tagovailoa back, and it has drastically improved their offense, as expected. The wins haven’t come with it, but that is in part due to facing two good teams — the Arizona Cardinals and Buffalo Bills. This season is all but over from a divisional standpoint, but they are only three games behind the final Wild Card spot, and anything can happen in the NFL.
The Los Angeles Rams are in a similar boat where they are finally getting some key contributors back from injury. Much more fortunately for the Rams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua’s return has allowed them to win some games and stay competitive in a tight NFC West race.
Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Rams Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Rams -2.5 - Moneyline
Rams (-135); Dolphins (+114) - Over/Under
49 total points - Game Time
8:15 p.m. ET - Location
SoFi Stadium
Dolphins vs. Rams Preview and Prediction
The Dolphins’ offense in 2024 ranks 13th in EPA (expected points added) with Tua starting. This is largely because his skill set is a perfect match with what Mike McDaniel has been building in Miami — quick and accurate throws that allow the skill players to make plays.
The offense under Tyler Huntley and Skylar Thompson have a time to throw of 2.77 seconds which ranks 16th in the league, per Tru Media. Under Tagovailoa, they lead the league at just 2.39 seconds.
Looking at quick pressure allowed, we see that the Dolphins’ offensive line has been slightly above average in pass blocking this year, ranking 13th at just 16.2% of their dropbacks resulting in a pressure in under 2.5 seconds. The Dolphins also see the lowest rate of blitzing in the NFL due to the quick, timing-based nature of their offense paired with the blazing speed they possess.
The Rams’ defense has been below average this year, ranking 23rd in EPA. They have been good pressuring the quarterback, ranking fourth in the NFL in pressure generated despite blitzing at a league-average rate.
While this is generally an advantage, it plays into Miami’s strengths well as they rank ninth under pressure with Tua at quarterback.
The Rams’ offense is ranked third in EPA with both Nacua and Kupp on the field. Unfortunately, this has only happened on 71 plays. For context, the Rams in Weeks 8 and 9 still rank seventh. When his receivers are healthy, Matthew Stafford is still clearly a top quarterback in the NFL.
The Dolphins’ defense ranks 17th in EPA against the pass and eighth against the run. Schematically, Miami’s defense runs middle-of-field closed coverage at the 18th-highest clip in the league. Despite not stopping teams from some deep plays, the Dolphins’ defense ranks second in passes of 10 or more yards given up and seventh in passes of 20 or more yards given up.
This should give them a decent advantage against a Rams offense that doesn’t typically score from explosive plays. Without Nakua and Kupp, the Rams rank sixth in success rate, and they rank first by a wide margin with them. The Dolphins’ defense will need to find a way to force turnovers, otherwise the Rams’ offense will methodically dice them up all game long.
Love this play design in the Rams offense from Sean McVay.
Puts the defense in a lot of conflict. Puka Nacua sucks the nickel CB to the flat. Outside CB has to carry with Robinson. Leaves Cooper Kupp open on the wheel route on the boundary. pic.twitter.com/wjxBiwMvAp
— Blaine Grisak 💭 (@bgrisakTST) November 5, 2024
Overall, the Rams’ and Dolphins’ offense are both playing at a much higher level with their stars back in the lineup. Both offenses should be able to dominate this game. What it will come down to is who plays better in high-leverage situations. The Dolphins rank second in EPA in the fourth quarter of a game in which they are tied or down by 7 or less. The Rams rank eighth.
My pick: Dolphins +2.5, Over 49 total points (-110)