The Miami Dolphins and Tua Tagovailoa simply cannot play in the cold. It’s not a matter of debate. It’s just a fact of life.
That’s been the narrative this week, at least. Is it true? Up to this point — yes.
But storylines aren’t always written in ink. And Tagovailoa has a chance to change millions of minds when his 5-6 Dolphins visit the 8-3 Green Bay Packers in a Thanksgiving nightcap.
Miami Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa History in the Cold
The sun will have long dipped below the western Wisconsin horizon at game time. The temperatures at kickoff? The forecast calls for 27 degrees, with a wind chill of 17.
Not great for a team from the subtropics with a QB from Hawaii.
Thursday will be the ninth game of Tagovailoa’s career with kickoff temperatures of 50 or below.
He has won just one of his previous eight such starts. His stats in those games? Absolutely brutal: 57.6% completions, nine touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 6.7 yards per attempt, and a passer rating of 70.9.
For the Dolphins to get to where they want — not just this year but beyond — those numbers need to change in a big way.
“I would say the biggest thing is mindset,” Tagovailoa said this week. “We’re obviously nowhere near the temperatures that all these other cold teams play at being in Miami where it’s 80. Sometimes it gets down to 50, but it just gets nowhere near the teams that make it in long stretches in the run that they try to do. To me it’s just a mindset. That’s really all it is.”
Positive thinking only goes so far, of course. Tagovailoa, more than anything, needs to play better in the elements, which have contributed to some of the ugliest performances of his career.
Here are his five worst in the cold.
Tua Tagovailoa’s Bottom-5 Cold-Weather Outings
Kansas City Chiefs 26, Miami Dolphins 7 | Jan. 13, 2024
- Stats: 20 of 39, 199 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 63.9
- QB+ Rating: 64.7 (D)
- Temperature at Kickoff: -4 degrees
The absolute worst cold-weather performance of Tagovailoa’s five-year career came in one of the coldest games ever played.
The wind chill at kickoff was 20 below — and it deteriorated significantly from there. Fans literally lost fingers.
Tua couldn’t handle it. He produced a 9.1% third-down conversion rate, averaged 4.8 nYPA, and finished with a -0.25 EPA per dropback.
In fairness, the Dolphins’ entire offense froze. They scored on one of 11 possessions and seven drives went for fewer than seven plays.
But we’re not giving Tagovailoa a total pass here. Patrick Mahomes was able to figure out how to run a somewhat competent offense.
Mahomes’ QB+ was actually respectable (78.5, C+), as were his EPA per dropback (0.29), third-down rate (46.2%), and nYPA (6.4).
Tennessee Titans 34, Miami Dolphins 3 | Jan. 2, 2022
- Stats: 18 of 38, 205 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 53.1
- QB+ Rating: 66.1 (D)
- Temperature at Kickoff: 36 degrees
The relationship between Tagovailoa and former Dolphins coach Brian Flores broke for good on this nippy afternoon in Nashville.
Flo weeks earlier tried and failed to replace Tua with Deshaun Watson. But it wasn’t until this Week 17 game that things went from bad to unsalvageable.
Tagovailoa played horribly — the Dolphins ran a total of 13 offensive plays in their first four drives — and the men exchanged angry words when Flores bluntly told him that.
Two weeks later, Flores was gone from Miami. But Tagovailoa’s issues in late-season cold games have persisted.
Denver Broncos 20, Miami Dolphins 13 | Nov. 22, 2020
- Stats: 11 of 20, 83 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs, 81.9
- QB+ Rating: 68.1 (D)
- Temperature at Kickoff: 45 degrees
More Flo vs. Tua drama in the cold. In the second half of this Rocky Mountain mess, Flores actually benched Tagovailoa for Ryan Fitzpatrick due to performance. (It was the first of two times in 2020 Flores made that confidence-wrecking move.)
In Flores’ defense, the offense with Tua in the game was inept. Their only touchdown came on a short field after a turnover. The Dolphins had three first downs on their first five possessions.
And the offense did look better with Fitzpatrick under center.
Perhaps the most embarrassing part of Tagovailoa’s performance? He was outplayed by Drew Lock (18 of 30, 270 yards).
Buffalo Bills 56, Miami Dolphins 26 | Jan. 3, 2021
- Stats: 35 of 58, 361 yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs
- QB+ Rating: 69.5 (D+)
- Temperature at Kickoff: 35 degrees
Tagovailoa and the Dolphins arrived in chilly Western New York during 2020’s Week 17 with a win-and-get-in situation.
It became a lost-and-got-eliminated situation on the last day of the season.
Adding insult to injury? The Bills didn’t even have to try — and barely did. Josh Allen only played a half and still ripped apart the Dolphins’ secondary with three touchdowns to Isaiah McKenzie.
It was Tua’s first loss in that building. He’s still waiting for his first win there.
Baltimore Ravens 56, Miami Dolphins 19 | Dec. 31, 2023
- Stats: 22 of 38, 237 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
- QB+ Rating: 71.6 (C-)
- Temperature at Kickoff: 50
This is the day that the Dolphins’ 2023 Super Bowl dream died.
They just didn’t know it at the time.
Another blowout loss in Baltimore set up a de facto Week 18 AFC East title game with the Bills (which the Dolphins also lost). Bradley Chubb needlessly suffered a season-ending knee injury in garbage time. The vibe was just awful.
The offense wasn’t terrible, per se. But it wasn’t nearly good enough against a Ravens team that scored 21 points in two different quarters.
Tagovailoa mustered just 54 passing yards with the Dolphins trying to mount a rally in the second half, when the Dolphins could put together just one drive of more than four plays.