The Miami Dolphins will travel to take on the Los Angeles Rams in Week 10. Below is our final pick and prediction for the game.
Note that all odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Nov. 7, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated otherwise.
If you’re looking for other games, check out our final NFL Week 10 Picks and Predictions for the entire slate.
Pick: Matthew Stafford Under 262.5 Passing Yards
(Jason Katz) Simply put, this line is too high. FanDuel is notoriously sharp when it comes to player props. Every other main book opened this at 262.5, while FD was sitting there at 250.5. I expect the books to come down to the FD line, not vice versa.
Nevertheless, this line appears to be an overreaction to Stafford’s last two games when he threw for 298 and 279 yards. Those two performances came in high-scoring games against a bottom-five pass defense and a bottom-half pass defense. This week, Stafford gets a Dolphins defense allowing the fourth-fewest passing yards per game.
From Weeks 1-6, Stafford threw for over 260 yards just once, back in Week 1.
Now, to be fair, there is something different about Weeks 1, 8, and 9 from the rest of the season. Those were the only weeks he had Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp on the field.
Even so, Stafford can have a big game in a high-scoring affair without tearing it up through the air. The Dolphins are not a bad run defense, but they are much more beatable on the ground than through the air/ Look for a heavy dose of Kyren Williams, keeping Stafford in the 220-240 passing yard range this week. I would play this down to 256.5.
Pick: Under 50
(Kyle Soppe) I understand if your instinct is to bet the over in this spot – neither defense has impressed this season, and neither offense has been as healthy as they’ve been. But the sportsbooks are well aware of those facts and seem to be pushing this number up to see just how they can set it while still attracting action on both sides.
I’ll bite.
Tua Tagovailoa and Stafford both carry high-end potential, but we are evaluating what will most likely occur. Over Tagovailoa’s past seven starts, his Dolphins are averaging 19.9 points per game with zero 30-point performances. Over Stafford’s past 19 starts, his Rams are averaging 23.8 points per game with five 30-point outings.
Neither of these offenses ranks better than 25th in red zone conversion rate this season, and both are below average in terms of rushing success rate on the defensive side. If these two teams are settling for field goals in a game that constantly has a running clock – they’d need to be close to perfect to go over this total.
Could that happen? Sure. There are game-breakers on both ends. Am I projecting it? Nope. Unders are 13-3-1 in Stafford’s last seven starts, where the total closes north of 47 points, a trend I would like to continue.
Dolphins vs. Rams Week 10 Promo Codes
Be sure to check out all the latest Sportsbooks promos. If you are already signed up with a book or aren’t interested, continue to scroll down for our picks.
Note that sportsbook promo codes will only appear if you are in a legalized area. If you’re in a location that has not legalized sports betting, you’ll see a list of top fantasy sports operators, which are available in most states.
Dolphins vs. Rams Game Stats and Insights
Miami Dolphins
Team: Miami’s offensive 51.9% offensive success rate over the past two weeks (Weeks 1-7: 36.7%).
QB: Since returning, Tua Tagovailoa has completed 46-of-57 passes when not pressured (80.7%).
Offense: Miami is being blitzed on only 13.9% of dropbacks. The Bengals at 17% are the only other offense under 18.6% this season.
Defense: The Dolphins are forcing just 0.75 turnovers per game, tied with the Cowboys for the fourth-fewest through nine weeks.
Fantasy: If you extend De’Von Achane’s numbers from four Tagovailoa games for a 17-game season: 2,266 yards and 21 touchdowns.
Betting: Under tickets have cashed in five of Miami’s past six road games played in primetime.
Los Angeles Rams
Team: In 2023, the Rams lost three straight games before their bye and won seven of eight following the week off. This season, they were 1-4 before their bye and have won all three games since.
QB: Puka Nacua got ejected late in the first half, which impacted his QB in a major way. In Week 9, Matthew Stafford completed just two-of-10 third down passes – in Weeks 1-8, he owned a 59.2% completion rate on third downs.
Offense: Over the past two weeks, 76.7% of Los Angeles’ yards have come through the air (Weeks 3-7: 62.6%).
Defense: The Rams rank fourth in the NFL in pressure rate this season (38.8%) despite blitzing just 25.4% of the time (league average: 25.8%).
Fantasy: Our game is driven by touchdowns, and Kyren Williams, while great at converting, isn’t immune to that. He has consecutive games without a rushing score (rushing TD in nine straight prior) and doesn’t have a rush, gaining more than 17 yards in seven of eight.
Betting: Unders are 10-3 (76.9%) in the Rams last 13 primetime games.