Seattle Seahawks WR DK Metcalf is coming off yet another good, not great, season. With just one WR1 season in five years, should fantasy football managers give up on the dream of what Metcalf could be, or is he a value in 2024 Best Ball drafts?
DK Metcalf’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
It’s been four years since Metcalf’s breakout 2020 season that saw him average 17.0 fantasy points per game and finish as the overall WR10. Ever since then, fantasy managers have been waiting for him to return to those heights. Thus far, we’ve been disappointed.
The perception of Metcalf is quite interesting, as he’s still mostly viewed as this guy who has the ability to be an elite WR1. I will admit to falling into that camp as well but entering his sixth NFL season, perhaps it’s time to assess Metcalf purely based on what we’ve seen and not what he could be. We have a large enough sample size to do that.
Metcalf has now finished as a low-WR2 for three consecutive seasons. In fact, he’s finished exactly between WR20 and WR24 all three years, averaging 14.4, 13.3, and 14.1 fantasy points per game, respectively. Those numbers aren’t bad at all, but they’re not exactly moving the needle — and Metcalf looks like a guy who should be moving the needle.
What makes Metcalf so difficult to figure out is his path to his fantasy finishes has been different every year. In 2021, Metcalf saw an elite target share but low volume due to a run-heavy offense. Yet, he scored 12 touchdowns. His efficiency in that department saved his fantasy value.
The following season, Metcalf set a career high with 141 targets. But with the increase in volume came a career-worst 11.6 yards per reception.
Last season, Metcalf’s yards per reception spiked to 16.9, a career high. However, his target shared dipped a hair below 23%, and he caught just 66 passes. Despite scoring eight touchdowns, Metcalf averaged fewer points per game than he did two years prior.
Should You Draft Metcalf in 2024 Best Ball Leagues?
Best Ball leagues are always a bit trickier than managed leagues because of how much wide receivers are propped up. Metcalf’s price at his position makes him appear to be a value, but it’s hard to justify taking a player with his production profile inside the top 30 overall picks.
I want to want Metcalf. He’s just 26 years old and is one of the most athletically gifted players in the history of the league. Despite his middling production for three seasons, I still believe he has league-winning upside if the circumstances are right. Unfortunately, I’m not sure what’s going to change in 2024.
It’s hard to imagine the Seahawks will be more pass-heavy this year. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is another year more experienced and likely to command more targets. Even if Tyler Lockett takes a step back, Metcalf’s target share is unlikely to crack 25%.
KEEP READING: Best Ball Fantasy WR Rankings 2024
Metcalf does have room to improve in the catch rate and touchdown departments, but an improvement in the former would likely lead to a reduction in his yards per reception, canceling out any benefit to his fantasy value. That leaves us with hoping he scores more touchdowns, which just isn’t something I can bank on.
Unfortunately, Metcalf is likely someone I’m passing on at his current cost.
