In his first season with the Chicago Bears, WR DJ Moore set career highs in catches (96), yards (1,364), and touchdowns (eight), but that was with Justin Fields calling the shots. This season, rookie Caleb Williams will be responsible for feeding Moore, and as if counting on a first-year player wasn’t enough, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze are target outlets that weren’t in the Windy City last season.
Some regression in terms of volume (and thus fantasy football production) is to be expected, but has the industry overestimated Moore’s decline?
Should You Select Moore at His Current ADP?
ADP: 44th Overall (WR22)
Right now, Moore is being drafted in the third round, just ahead of secondary receivers like Jaylen Waddle, Cooper Kupp, and DeVonta Smith. I like that tier, as they are all strong talents that figure to post strong season-long numbers but with some week-to-week variance.
Moore was a clear-cut WR1 last season for fantasy managers, and I think the industry is right in not labeling him as such this season, though it’s not out of the range of outcomes. If you believe that Allen’s recent injuries limit him, you’ll want to rank Moore as a top-15 option at the position and jump into the late-second/early-third round to acquire his services.
There is no denying that he is one of the better YAC receivers in the game today, and a skill set like that can help insulate a rookie quarterback. As long as you’re not paying for a repeat of 2023, Moore makes for a strong WR2 target in all formats.
Moore’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Moore was a star in 2023. At 26, he delivered one of the more dominant receiver performances of the season in an island game against the Washington Commanders (eight catches for 230 yards and three scores).
He also reached triple digits in yards on five occasions despite playing in an offense led by Fields, a QB with as many touchdown passes as games played, and one who, for his career, averages under seven yards per attempt.
DJ Moore pic.twitter.com/ZOYgyczc2E
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) May 15, 2024
So yes, there is uncertainty under center this season with the rookie Williams assuming the lead role. But given his pedigree, it’s pretty difficult to consider this anything but a significant upgrade to Chicago’s aerial potential.
The target competition, however, does stand to be an issue. Allen might be five years Moore’s senior, but he has earned well over 8.5 targets per game in every season since tearing his ACL in 2016 (back when the Chargers called San Diego home) and hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down when on the field.
Of course, staying healthy has become increasingly difficult for the now 32-year-old (he has missed 11 games over the past two seasons and hasn’t played a full season since 2019). I’m not worried about the number of targets Allen earns, as the sheer volume of passes thrown in this offense should spike, but rather the type of targets.
Both he and Moore excel at getting open in a hurry, a great skill set when the clear alpha target (2023 Moore) is playing alongside field stretchers (2017-23 Allen) but not optimal when playing alongside a similar option.
Odunze was the ninth overall pick in April and will also figure into the target mix. Last season in a wide-open Washington offense, Odunze averaged 17.8 yards per catch with 13 touchdowns, offering a different skill set to this offense that is developing on the fly.
I actually think that Odunze’s versatility could stand to help both of the veterans with time as defenses learn to respect the rookie. Could he be the Jameson Williams to Moore/Allen’s Amon-Ra St. Brown?
Moore averaged 8.0 targets per game for the offense that threw the fifth fewest passes (second feast completions) in 2023. With their projected pass total angling toward league average, if not higher, the sheer volume of attempts should help offset the target competition.