After showing promise over his first few seasons with the Pittsburgh Steelers and looking like the wide receiver of the future in Steel Town, Diontae Johnson’s game has regressed over the last two seasons.
Will a change of scenery to the Carolina Panthers, and perhaps a more stable quarterback situation, spark a resurgence in Johnson’s career and make him a valuable receiver for fantasy football managers?
Diontae Johnson’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
While injuries limited Johnson to just 13 games last season, the facts are that his targets, receptions, and receiving yards have declined each of the last three seasons.
The regression in production cannot be completely blamed on Johnson. The Steelers have been unable to find a quality quarterback since Ben Roethlisberger retired following the 2021 season. And when you’re getting passes thrown to you by Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky, and Mason Rudolph, you’re probably only going to be so productive.
Johnson still showed what he’s capable of at the end of last season, when he scored four touchdowns over the final six regular-season games. He also demonstrated his ability to separate from defenders, averaging 15.8 yards per reception over that span.
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His productivity streak continued into the playoffs, as Johnson caught four passes for 48 yards and another touchdown during the loss to the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Wild Card Game.
On the positive side, last season Johnson posted a career-best yards-per-reception average (14.8), and his five touchdown receptions certainly made up for being shut out of the end zone altogether across 17 games in 2022.
However, Johnson also has averaged fewer than 60 receiving yards per game in each of his last two seasons, and his catch percentage has fallen under 60% in that pair of campaigns as well.
Is Diontae Johnson a Good Fantasy Pick?
If you believe that a change of scenery can provide a resurgence for some players, then you can certainly assume that Johnson has that potential. While the numbers say he is in decline, he is now part of a Panthers team that has a certain degree of stability at quarterback with second-year pro Bryce Young.
Young did struggle last season, finishing with only 11 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions in 16 games. But the Panthers also know he will be under center again this season, and if Young has any ability, you’d expect to see improved numbers in Year 2.
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Johnson is also going to a team that simply does not have much at the wide receiver position. Yes, Adam Thielen led the team with 103 receptions and 1,014 yards in 2023. But for the first time in his career, Thielen averaged under 10.0 yards per reception last season (9.8), and he will turn 34 years of age before the start of the regular season.
The opportunity is certainly there for a player with the ability to catch the deep ball to shine on this team. If nothing else, last season, Johnson proved he is still capable of being that player.
Yes, Johnson’s numbers are in decline, and he is heading to what could be the worst team in the NFL. But a mid-to-late-round pick by fantasy owners in their drafts is not an inappropriate fantasy draft strategy, as Johnson also has a chance to be Young’s top target on a team that has few clear-cut top options overall.