With Los Angeles Chargers RB J.K. Dobbins still injured and QB Justin Herbert seen limping around on the field in Week 15, let’s find some trustworthy DFS options for Thursday Night Football’s AFC West showdown.
Week 16 TNF DFS Picks
Captain: Bo Nix
Flex: Courtland Sutton
Flex: Ladd McConkey
Flex: Stone Smartt
Flex: Marvin Mims Jr.
Flex: Gus Edwards
DFS Strategy: Bo Nix Over Justin Herbert
One of the most surprising performances this year is the play of Denver Broncos rookie sensation Bo Nix. After QBs were drafted at one, two, and three overall in last year’s NFL Draft, Nix was the last quarterback of six taken in the first round (pick No. 12). Expectations for the rookie were low, but he has proven himself to be a mature pocket passer and has shown great intuition in coach Sean Payton’s offense.
The Broncos are coming off of their fourth straight win, and in his last five games, Nix has thrown for multiple passing TDs in four of those outings. I like Nix tonight to bounce back from a shaky outing (on the field, he was still decent for fantasy purposes) in Week 15 and lead the Broncos to a big win.
Herbert’s performance over the past month can be described as nothing short of underwhelming. He hasn’t thrown for more than 218 yards in a game and has three touchdown passes over that span. This has come against three of the worst pass defenses in the league, plus the pass-funnel Chiefs.
The Broncos held Herbert to 237 yards and one touchdown back in Week 6 and currently allow the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. I can’t see a world where he bests his Week 6 performance tonight with a gimpy ankle.
DFS Strategy: Targeting Top Pass Catchers
Although Week 16’s TNF matchup features two strong defenses and two coaching staffs that are not afraid to battle in the trenches, both teams have also shown a willingness to pepper their lead WR option with targets — and we love targets. First, let’s look at Courtland Sutton.
When it comes to targets, Sutton is the perfect play. In the last seven games, Sutton has had a minimum of eight targets and either 70+ yards or a touchdown in each game. This establishes an extremely strong floor for Sutton going up against a Chargers defense that ranks 26th in the NFL in receiving touchdowns to wideouts.
Another standout from this season’s rookie class is Chargers WR Ladd McConkey. Drafted out of Georgia as one of the most complete route runners in his class, McConkey has proven to be a reliable player on the field for the Chargers and in our fantasy lineups all season long. When McConkey is on the field, we expect him to see the ball — even against a tough Broncos defense.
Again, McConkey offers a wonderfully high floor averaging 5+ catches in each of his last four games — going over 100 yards receiving twice in that span. Another reason I love McConkey tonight is because the Broncos’ best pass defender, Pat Surtain, patrols the boundary. McConkey lives in the slot and should soak up yards over the middle all night.
DFS Strategy: Stone Smartt? Must-Start
With Will Dissly potentially done for the season, Stone Smartt has taken over as the Chargers’ primary tight end. In his first game as the starter, he caught five of six targets for 50 yards. Last week, Smartt was two yards shy of leading LA in receiving.
This is exactly the type of player we’re looking for to emerge at the measly price tag of $4,200 on DraftKings. This week’s matchup against the Broncos isn’t ideal, but he should at least be a passable option for those in need, especially at his price point. Like I said before, the Denver pass defense is definitely legitimate, but with Smartt likely avoiding the eyes of Surtain, there should be room for him to work.