The Philadelphia Eagles decided to lock up both of their dynamic WRs to help secure the supporting cast around QB Jalen Hurts for years to come. Yet, there appears to be a clear pecking order among these pass-catchers, with A.J. Brown being the better fantasy asset over DeVonta Smith heading into the future.
What should fantasy managers expect from Smith entering his fourth season in the NFL?
DeVonta Smith’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
One could argue that Smith has one of the best fantasy floors of any receiver, given his solid production every year in the NFL.
DeVonta Smith’s Fantasy Production Since Entering the NFL
- 2023: 81 receptions, 1,066 yards, 7 TDs (WR19)
- 2022: 95 receptions, 1,196 yards, 7 TDs (WR9)
- 2021: 64 receptions, 916 yards, 5 TDs (WR29)
Smith has seen north of 100 targets every year of his career and has proven that a smaller receiver (6’0”, 170 lbs) who was an elite separator in college can win consistently on the outside in the NFL.
Despite being a slight disappointment in relation to his second-round ADP last year, Smith’s WR19 fantasy finish in 2023 shouldn’t be viewed as a complete failure, considering the epic collapse the Eagles experienced after a 10-2 start to the season.
However, the issues with Philadelphia’s offense over the back half of the season shouldn’t be completely ignored, either.
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Hurts definitely appeared to regress a bit as a passer in his first year without Shane Steichen as the offensive coordinator, going from six INTs in 2022 to 15 in 2023. That begs the question of how Smith’s role changed last year and the potential impact that had on his fantasy production.
Despite seeing his slot usage percentage jump by 7.9%, Smith still registered a lower yards per route run (1.83) and a significantly lower yards after catch production total (294) than the year prior. This could be due to the fact that his average depth of target jumped from 9.9 to 12.1 from 2022 to 2023.
Hurts’ struggles, combined with the target competition of Dallas Goedert and Saquon Barkley, certainly could make Smith a bit of a volatile fantasy option. But the biggest fantasy upside killer for Smith is the presence of Brown.
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Smith has produced the two best seasons of his NFL career working alongside Brown, but Brown has simply produced at a higher level than Smith with his opportunities in this passing game.
A.J. Brown’s Fantasy Production With the Philadelphia Eagles
- 2023: 106 receptions, 1,456 yards, seven TDs (WR5)
- 2022: 88 receptions, 1,496 yards, 11 TDs (WR6)
Smith actually produced seven more receptions than Brown in 2022, but finished with 300 fewer yards.
Another factor limiting Smith’s fantasy upside is his minimal role in the red zone, where he saw just six targets in 2023.
For some context, Smith saw fewer looks in that area of the field than Cedric Tillman, Skyy Moore, and Sterling Shepard, while both Brown and Goedert saw 10+ targets in the red zone last season.
While Brown was busy rattling off six straight 130+ yard performances from Weeks 3 to 8 as the WR1 overall in fantasy football during that span, Smith was the WR37 with 28 receptions for 304 yards and one score for an average of just 10.7 fantasy points per game in full-PPR formats.
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In fact, Smith’s best run of production came from Weeks 11 to 13 with three straight games of six or more receptions and 96+ yards, which all coincidentally came with Goedert out of the lineup.
Smith is still positioned to be a productive WR2 in this offense who has the big-play ability to give you some outstanding weeks, but his volatility due to elite target competition and the uncertainty of his quarterback’s ability to consistently operate as an elite passer make his projection a little uncertain heading into 2024.
Smith’s ADP has dropped into the fourth round as the WR22 off the board at this time, which is a bit understandable given his slight dip in production last year.
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Smith is being selected just ahead of Cooper Kupp, DK Metcalf, and Travis Kelce at this time.
To me, Smith feels like a riskier version of Jaylen Waddle — a high-end 1B in his own offense working alongside an elite receiver but is in an offense that loves to bully their way into the end zone on the ground in goal-to-go situations and has other talented pass-catchers with a quarterback who showed regression last season.
To me, Smith feels only slightly overpriced at this time, but his proven production over his entire career makes him a solid WR2 for your team in 2024.
Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Analysis for DeVonta Smith
Last season, a career-low 4.9% of Smith’s receptions came in the red zone, a red flag when it comes to projecting growth in the touchdown department and something that I don’t see turning around this season.
While I’m a bit down on Smith at cost, I’d still prefer him to a pair of receivers going in a similar range. Stefon Diggs has an impressive résumé, but physical decline is certainly possible, as is the potential for him to rank third on his team in targets. Malik Nabers enters the NFL with as much pedigree as Smith, but the situation is just too prohibitive for me to consider him in this tier.
Looking over a #FantasyFootball mock draft with @DerekTateNFL https://t.co/cvU4XJVuVX pic.twitter.com/MfM5NDdpBm
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) June 12, 2024
Nabers is the best receiver the New York Giants have had during this stretch, but — likely due to the recent success of young receivers — his asking price is nearing what I view as his ceiling.
You can do better than Smith around the 4-5 turn. I personally prefer Cooper Kupp in this range, but even if you think this is the right spot for Smith in terms of the receiver rankings (fringe top 20), I find myself more interested in the elite onsie positions at this point.