Philadelphia Eagles WR DeVonta Smith was supposed to take another step forward last season, but regressed a bit. Can the Eagles’ offense make the necessary changes for Smith to finally post a WR1 season? Is he a worthwhile target for fantasy football managers in Best Ball?
DeVonta Smith’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
Recency bias can be quite dangerous. The last thing fantasy managers remembered heading into the 2023 season was Smith’s scorching hot close to the 2022 season.
While never a threat to usurp A.J. Brown as the Eagles’ WR1, Smith was a consensus top 24-ish pick in 2023 Best Ball drafts. Entering his third season, a potential jump into the ranks of the WR1s felt quite plausible.
I would stop short of calling Smith a bust, though. After averaging 15.0 fantasy points per game in 2022, Smith only declined to 14.2 on average last year.
Smith was pretty much the same player. The biggest issue was pure volume. Smith’s target share dropped from 27% to 22.6%. That made all the difference, as his yards per game were similar (70.4 in 2022, 66 in 2023), and his catch rate increased from 69.9% to 72.3%. Smith also scored seven touchdowns for the second consecutive year.
There were two other issues that plagued Smith — neither of which was his fault. First, Jalen Hurts regressed as a passer. Second, the coaching staff struggled to properly adjust to what defenses were doing, resulting in the Eagles scoring 11 fewer offensive touchdowns last year.
The good news is Philadelphia did some serious introspection after the season. They openly acknowledged their coaching wasn’t up to standards.
We should have reasonable confidence they can and will improve in 2024. Hurts may never reach the heights he did two years ago, but he should be better as well.
Should You Draft Smith in 2024 Best Ball Leagues?
It’s always interesting to see how the fantasy community reacts to the previous season. For some players, one stretch will supersede everything else a player has done. For others, it won’t matter at all.
Smith’s price has taken quite the tumble from the year prior. He’s now barely going inside the top 24 wide receivers. For as disappointing as Smith was last season, he still finished as the overall WR20. It’s hard to envision him being even worse.
The best type of player to draft in fantasy football is a guy going at his floor. Of course, we also need those players to have upside. Fortunately, Smith has already proven capable of producing like a WR1 in stretches. Even if we get something in between 2022 and 2023, Smith will end up being a value at his current cost.
The abundance of talented wide receivers in the NFL right now is pushing some really good ones down draft boards. There will inevitably be some excellent values in 2024 fantasy drafts.
KEEP READING: Best Ball Fantasy WR Rankings 2024
Right now, one of those looks to be Smith. That may very well change, but if you’re drafting in Best Ball early in the offseason, Smith is very stackable with Hurts, and someone you should very much consider taking.
