Rankings are important, but they don’t always have the answers. Oftentimes, two players listed next to or near each other in rankings are pretty much equal in value.
Two guys that fit this profile based on ADP are Miami Dolphins running back De’Von Achane and Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs. If you’re staring down both of these RBs in your fantasy football draft, which one should you take?
2024 Fantasy Outlook for De’Von Achane
Everyone can agree that Achane is really good at football. His rookie season was nothing short of electric. Achane was a big play machine, averaging 7.7 yards per touch. An incredible 12.6% of his carries went for 15+ yards, the highest rate in the league.
Unsurprisingly, Achane was a fantasy monster. His 1.36 fantasy points per opportunity led all running backs. He averaged 17.3 fantasy points per game and finished as the overall RB5 despite touching the ball just 11.8 times per game.
Achane’s 51.3 fantasy points in Week 3 certainly bolstered his average. But he was still quite good in games where he didn’t have one of the greatest individual scoring weeks of all time.
Injuries limited Achane to appearing in just 11 games, but it was really even less than that. He only saw 8% of the snaps in Week 2 and left Week 11 after just 4% of the snaps. In reality, fantasy managers only got nine games out of him.
In those nine games, Achane did exceed 20 fantasy points four times, not including his 50-point Week 3. He also had two games between 12 and 13 fantasy points, as well as two more in the single digits.
2024 Fantasy Outlook for Josh Jacobs
Jacobs is like the anti-Achane. Whereas Achane is all upside, Jacobs is all floor. There’s far more projectable volume for Jacobs.
The former Raider joins a Packers backfield with far less competition. Behind Jacobs are rookie MarShawn Lloyd, who has been in and out of the trainer’s room most of training camp, and A.J. Dillon, who… well, we know who Dillon is.
Last season, Jacobs was woefully inefficient. He averaged 3.5 yards per carry and just 4.1 yards per touch. A mere 2.1% of his rushes went for 15+ yards. His 2.89 yards created per touch were barely inside the top 50.
We also know Jacobs has elite RB1 upside. He averaged 19.3 fantasy points per game two years ago. The question is, which Jacobs is the real Jacobs?
On the Packers, Jacobs is going to be their RB1. However, head coach Matt LaFleur has never utilized a true three-down back. And it’s not like he hasn’t had a talented one. Aaron Jones was on the team for the past seven seasons. In his prime, Jones was an explosive runner as well as an elite pass catcher. He could’ve touched the ball more than 14-15 times per game. Yet, he never really did.
Nevertheless, it’s much easier to project Jacobs’ volume than Achane’s. Dillon and Lloyd are far less imposing foes than Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Wright.
Jacobs is not going to lose his job. His goal-line role is also likely safe. And the Packers have a good, ascending offense led by Jordan Love. But Jacobs lacks the gamebreaking upside of Achane. So, who is the better pick?
Who Should I Draft in 2024?
There’s no sense in burying the lede here. I am taking Achane. But it’s not a slam dunk “You’re an idiot if you disagree with me” type of situation. There are very valid arguments for Jacobs.
For starters, Jacobs has been on the field for most of his career. Prior to last season, he had missed only five games in his career. Although he missed the final four games last year, I do believe the Raiders’ season being cooked had a lot to do with it.
Achane missed six games in his rookie year alone and has a play style far more conducive to injury.
Jacobs has volume on his side. Achane is never going to be a 300-touch back. Jacobs has touched the ball 300+ times or was projected to over a full season every year of his career. Volume is king in fantasy football. It’s better to rely on volume than efficiency.
There’s nothing wrong with taking the safety of Jacobs. It’s just not how I play fantasy football.
If you were to poll 1,000 random fantasy managers and told them you’re from the future and one of these backs averaged 22+ ppg, 1,000 of them would guess it was Achane. Objectively, he’s the one with the higher ceiling. If Achane’s efficiency can mostly remain, and he can see just a little more volume (2-3 more opportunities a game), that could be enough to propel him to a legendary season.
Achane certainly comes with higher risk. If his volume doesn’t increase and his efficiency decreases, we could be looking at a mid-to-low RB2. That’s not going to cost you your league, but it’s certainly not going to help you win it.
Nevertheless, I am willing to gamble on Achane’s undeniable talent and chase the upside he provides.