It’s fantasy football championship week. For everyone still chasing that championship, the stakes behind start/sit decisions are as high as they will ever be. The Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals are two teams filled with fantasy goodness. But not everyone is an auto-start. Can fantasy managers trust Devin Singletary and James Cook?
Devin Singletary Remains the Lead Back, but James Cook Has a Role
When it comes to the Bills’ backfield, there’s no debate over who the lead back is — it’s Singletary. At the same time, the degree to which he dominates this backfield is very much in question.
Earlier in the season, Singletary was consistently playing over 70% of the snaps. He got as high as 88% in one week.
Cook had some flashes, but his involvement didn’t really begin in earnest until Week 13. That was the first time he saw a snap share over 25%. In that game, Cook set season highs in carries and receptions, while Singletary didn’t catch a pass for the only time this season.
Following that week, fantasy managers raced to grab Cook off the waiver wire. Naturally, he went right back to irrelevancy the following week with five touches for 15 total yards. At that point, it became clear figuring out when to start Cook would be a challenge.
Cook did next to nothing the following week but scored, salvaging his fantasy line. Last week, Cook carried the ball 11 times for 99 yards and a touchdown. However, it was against the Bears, so both backs were able to feast. Singletary had 12 carries for 106 yards of his own.
Cook profiles as the better receiving back, but he’s not being used that way. Despite his six-catch effort back in Week 13, Singletary continues to run more routes than Cook. However, it is worth noting that prior to Cook’s breakout game, Singletary was averaging about 20 routes run per game. Since then, that number is below 15.
Should Fantasy Managers Start Singletary or Cook?
From a game environment perspective, you want pieces of this game. The Bengals and Bills have two of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. This game could be fireworks with a cornucopia of points. More points = more opportunity for your players in this game to score them.
From a matchup perspective, this one is pretty bad. The Bengals allow the eighth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. They allow just 80.1 rushing yards per game, the sixth-fewest in the league, and allow just 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game.
Additionally, just 13.4% of their receiving yards allowed have come from the running back position. They’re not a true pass funnel defense, but they are definitely more vulnerable through the air than on the ground. The Bills are seventh in neutral game script pass rate. They are going to lean on the pass, as they typically do.
At the same time, it’s also worth noting the Bengals are second in neutral game script pass rate. Both of these teams like to throw early and often. They also both play relatively fast. The running backs may not see a high percentage of touches, but they may make up for it in total volume.
Ultimately, I expect both backs to be rather inefficient with their touches. However, they could still see enough to be fantasy-viable. Singletary certainly will. Cook is a far riskier proposition. If you’re looking for some action on this game, Underdog Fantasy might be a better outlet than your fantasy championship.
The flow of this game is conducive to a potential short touchdown, but that would likely belong to Singletary. He remains the far better option. Consider him a touchdown-dependent RB2.
Cook is an RB3 and not someone I would be excited to start. But if you don’t have a better option, you can certainly do worse than taking a shot on an 8-10 touch-back in one of the league’s best offenses in a potential shootout.
