Running backs are difficult to value, and Devin Singletary’s dynasty ranking is proof of that.
He wasn’t a fantasy football target entering 2023, but after a third straight season with over 1,000 total yards and the proven ability to lead a backfield, Singletary’s stock is higher now than it was entering last season.
As he enters his age-27 campaign, is Singletary an asset set to return value as he replaces Saquon Barkley as the lead back in New York? Or should the Singletary chip be cashed in after a surprisingly impactful year with the Houston Texans?
Devin Singletary’s Dynasty Outlook
From Weeks 10-18, Singletary posted three top-10 RB finishes (half-PPR) and was at least viable in each of those weeks. In fact, over two weeks (Weeks 10-11), he was the 10th-most valuable player, not running back, in our game, a ceiling that few non-elite backs hit during any two-week stretch.
Huge gain by Devin Singletary to put the #Texans in plus territory 😤
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365)
Thus, I understand the positive vibes surrounding a lead back who has missed just one game over the past four seasons and, in theory, has a peak season left in him based on the age curve.
That said, Singletary will no longer have the benefit of an above-average offense supporting him and making each touch a bit more valuable.
As encouraging as 2023 was, he’s only once scored more than six touchdowns and never amassed 900 rushing yards in a season.
The projected role is nice, but I have my questions about this profile:
- Career: 12.9% target rate (RB average: 18.3%)
- Career: 23.3% TD rate on carries inside the 10 (RB average: 29.3%)
Singletary’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Singletary land in the dynasty RB landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Soppe’s latest rankings, featuring where Singletary lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Bijan Robinson | ATL
2) Christian McCaffrey | SF
3) Breece Hall | NYJ
4) Jonathan Taylor | IND
5) Jahmyr Gibbs | DET
6) Saquon Barkley | PHI
7) Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX
8) Kyren Williams | LAR
9) James Cook | BUF
10) Kenneth Walker III | SEA
11) De’Von Achane | MIA
12) Isiah Pacheco | KC
13) Javonte Williams | DEN
14) Alvin Kamara | NO
15) Rhamondre Stevenson | NE
16) Derrick Henry | BAL
17) Nick Chubb | CLE
18) Josh Jacobs | GB
19) Rachaad White | TB
20) Tony Pollard | TEN
21) Zamir White | LV
22) D’Andre Swift | CHI
23) Aaron Jones | MIN
24) Jaylen Warren | PIT
25) Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS
26) Najee Harris | PIT
27) Blake Corum | FA
28) Tyjae Spears | TEN
29) Austin Ekeler | WAS
30) David Montgomery | DET
31) Joe Mixon | HOU
32) James Conner | ARI
33) Trey Benson | FA
34) Keaton Mitchell | BAL
35) Jonathon Brooks | FA
36) Raheem Mostert | MIA
37) Gus Edwards | LAC
38) Devin Singletary | NYG
39) Kendre Miller | NO
40) Zach Charbonnet | SEA
41) Zack Moss | CIN
42) Dameon Pierce | HOU
43) Roschon Johnson | CHI
44) Tank Bigsby | JAX
45) Khalil Herbert | CHI
46) AJ Dillon | GB
47) Chase Brown | CIN
48) J.K. Dobbins | LAC
49) Miles Sanders | CAR
50) Chuba Hubbard | CAR
Should You Trade Singletary in Dynasty?
While the 2023 stat line comfortably beat projections, are we sure that Singletary is anything special? In comparing him to the average NFL running back in 2023:
- Yards per carry before contact: 4.8% better
- Yards per carry after contact: 1.4% worse
MORE: Dynasty Rookie Rankings 2024
Without proof that he can consistently gain yardage this way, the only way I’d be interested in Singletary’s overall profile is if the splash play was something that he offered. It’s not.
- Singletary, since 2019: 1.13% of runs have gained 25+ yards
- NFL average RB, since 2019: 1.35% of runs have gained 25+ yards
Singletary wasn’t one of the 52 running backs last season to rip off a 25-yard run, and his 15-yard carry rate fell from 7.34% in his final season with the Buffalo Bills to 4.63% in Year 1 with the Texans.
In my opinion, the path to meaningful production just isn’t there. Singletary will likely fall his way into some viable weeks here and there given the projected touch count, but banking on it weekly in the short or long term is not something I’m interested in doing.
