The Detroit Lions mounted an improbable comeback last week in Houston to notch their NFC-leading eighth win of the season. And now, after an absolutely dominant performance against the Jaguars, the Lions’ playoff chances have gotten even better as they added their ninth win of the year.
What are the Lions’ chances of landing the top seed in the NFC and ensuring the road to Super Bowl 58 goes through Detroit? Let’s take a closer look.
Can the Lions Make the Playoffs?
After all the action in Week 11, the Detroit Lions are 9-1 and now have a 99.4% chance to make the playoffs.
They have a 56.6% chance for the 1 seed, a 9.0% chance for the second seed, a 1.6% chance for the third seed, a 0.0% chance for the fourth seed, a 25.8% chance for the fifth seed, a 4.9% chance for the sixth seed, and a 1.6% chance for the seventh seed.
Can the Lions Win the NFC North?
Here’s what the NFC North race looks like after all the Sunday action in Week 11:
- The Detroit Lions have a 67.2% chance to win the NFC North.
- The Minnesota Vikings have a 27.5% chance to win the NFC North.
- The Green Bay Packers have a 5.4% chance to win the NFC North.
- The Chicago Bears have a 0.0% chance to win the NFC North.
Current NFC North Standings
- Detroit Lions (9-1)
- Minnesota Vikings (8-2)
- Green Bay Packers (7-3)
- Chicago Bears (4-6)
Lions’ Super Bowl Chances After Week 11
Can the Lions win the Super Bowl? The PFN Playoff Predictor projects that Detroit has a 31.8% chance to win it all.
Lions’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 12: at Indianapolis Colts
- Week 13: vs. Chicago Bears
- Week 14: vs. Green Bay Packers
- Week 15: vs. Buffalo Bills
- Week 16: at Chicago Bears
- Week 17: at San Francisco 49ers
- Week 18: vs. Minnesota Vikings
What PFN Predicted for the Lions vs. Jaguars Matchup
Detroit will look to extend its seven-game winning streak against a Jacksonville Jaguars team that has won just once since Oct. 13 and is coming off a poor offensive showing against the Vikings.
Last Sunday night’s win over the Houston Texans was momentous for Detroit because they accomplished it despite five interceptions from quarterback Jared Goff as well as a 23-7 halftime deficit. It’s highly unlikely the Lions will face that kind of first-half effort from the Jaguars or suffer from that kind of turnover adversity from their veteran quarterback this upcoming Sunday.
Detroit’s biggest advantage on offense against Jacksonville is in the passing game. Goff ranks third in passer rating at 106.7 and in yards per attempt at 8.6. He’s also tied for fourth in passing touchdowns with 18.
Jacksonville’s pass defense, meanwhile, is among the worst in the NFL. They are surrendering a league-leading passer rating of 106.2, have allowed the fourth-most touchdowns (19), and have only five interceptions (even after collecting three last week alone).
Jacksonville was without starting quarterback Trevor Lawrence last week and was forced to start backup Mac Jones. Lawrence’s status for this week’s game remains uncertain, although there will be optimism all week that he’ll play given he was a game-day decision last week against Minnesota.
To stage an upset, Jacksonville will need to get their ground game going with backs Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby, both of whom are dealing with leg injuries. The Jaguars are already without No. 2 receiver Christian Kirk due to a season-ending collarbone injury, so the focus will be on standout rookie Brian Thomas Jr. once again this week.
Detroit is a 13.0-point favorite at the moment, by far the most heavily favored team on the board this week. The game total currently sits at 47.0.
PFN Prediction: Lions 34, Jaguars 13