After one of the most productive runs recently for an RB as the featured player in the Tennessee Titans offense over the last five years, Derrick Henry is positioned to be the primary ball carrier for the Baltimore Ravens, who have been one of the most dominant rushing offenses in the NFL over the same five-year span.
After turning 30 years old earlier this year, can fantasy football managers expect one more elite fantasy season from Henry entering the 2024 NFL season?
Derrick Henry’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
One of the most commonly referred to narratives in fantasy football is the age cliff at the RB position. This leads to a very common question for an aging veteran who recently turned 30, which is how much more does this player have left in the tank?
Despite the greatness we’ve seen from Henry during his NFL career, he’s not immune to this line of thinking. Henry’s RB8 overall finish in 2023 could be seen as a huge success considering the lack of talent along the offensive line and the inconsistent quarterback play he endured throughout the vast majority of the season.
Quite frankly, Henry still did Henry things with 1,167 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns while appearing in every single game last season. But if you look a bit closer, one may start to wonder if Father Time is starting to tap the former Alabama Crimson Tide product on the shoulder.
Henry’s 4.17 yards per carry in 2023 was a career low. Is that still very respectable? Yes, but a career-low efficiency metric for a running back who doesn’t have the stability of a high pass-catching floor should get your attention.
Yet, Henry enters a Baltimore backfield this season that has finished as a top-five rushing offense in the league for five consecutive years. After J.K. Dobbins suffered a season-ending injury during their season opener against the Houston Texans, Gus Edwards ran for over 800 yards and 13 rushing TDs as the Ravens’ leading ball carrier, which was good for an RB25 overall finish in PPR formats.
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No disrespect to Edwards, but Henry could certainly produce those types of numbers in a vastly improved situation from last season. If anything, this perhaps sets a very reasonable floor for Henry’s fantasy production heading into 2024.
One aspect of Henry’s game that will certainly transfer from Tennessee to Baltimore is his projected role and production in the passing game. In his career, he has never caught more than 33 passes in a season. One thing we’ve seen consistently throughout the years is that Ravens RBs don’t tend to see a ton of work in the receiving category with QB Lamar Jackson under center.
Speaking of Jackson, is he going to steal some rushing work away from Henry? Yes. Is it likely to significantly impact his fantasy ceiling? Probably not.
The Ravens don’t feature Jackson as a runner in goal-to-go situations like the Philadelphia Eagles do for Jalen Hurts, which gives Henry a nice boost in fantasy value as the preferred short-yardage option in a very productive offense.
Henry’s competition for touches out of the backfield includes Justice Hill, Rasheen Ali, and Keaton Mitchell, which means Henry is set to dominate early-down work. I don’t see a back on Baltimore’s current roster having the type of expanded role we saw from Tyjae Spears last year in Tennessee.
The Ravens’ offense generated the second most trips to the red zone last year, which gives him an ideal situation to produce one more RB1-type season with his rushing TD upside in a high-powered offense in 2024.
Is Henry a Good Fantasy Pick?
Henry’s ADP at No. 17 overall, going off the board in the second round as the RB8, suggests managers believe he still has one more elite fantasy campaign left in the tank with his role in an improved offensive situation in 2024. For some additional context, Henry is currently being drafted behind Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, and Kyren Williams.
Assuming the Ravens’ offense continues to run the ball effectively, Henry could project as a 1,000-yard rusher and a threat to finish with 10+ TDs at this point of his career.
Will other running backs see action working alongside him in Baltimore? Yes. Just not at the same level as Spears’ workload from last season.
Since I think Henry is in a great offense catered toward his strengths, I do believe he’s a great buy at his current ADP.