As kickoff in Week 10 draws closer, fantasy managers scramble to make last-minute lineup changes while agonizing over every little start-sit decision. Heading into the Cleveland Browns’ matchup against the New England Patriots as the lead back, should fantasy football managers start or sit D’Ernest Johnson in Week 10?
D’Ernest Johnson impressed the last time he was in this role
In fantasy, the worst thing you can have is what’s called “take lock.” It’s where you have a preconceived determination on a player, and no matter what happens, you stick with the original thinking.
I bring this up because I was lukewarm on D’Ernest Johnson just a few weeks ago when he was in this same role as the Browns’ lead RB. I remembered him burning fantasy managers last season and just seemed like “a guy.” Nothing special, just one of the backup dancers who get some time in the spotlight until the show’s real star comes back into the frame.
But Johnson had other plans in Week 7 and balled out. He rushed 22 times for 146 yards and a TD while adding 22 yards on 2 receptions. Johnson was the RB4 on the week, finishing with 24.8 PPR points against a Broncos defense we viewed as a tough matchup.
This is why I brought up take lock. I have to give Johnson the full respect he deserves because he showed us what he could do. Will he be the RB4 again? Probably not. But he is certainly far better than I was giving him credit for a few weeks ago.
The Browns won’t change who they are despite Nick Chubb’s absence
Without question, the Browns and everyone else would much rather have Nick Chubb on the field Sunday. From a pure running standpoint, there might be no one better. However, Chubb won’t be available to play in Week 10.
On Friday, Zac Jackson of The Athletic reported Chubb would not play in Week 10 following a positive COVID-19 test on Tuesday. Chubb joins Demetric Felton (COVID-19/reserve) and Kareem Hunt (IR – calf) as Browns RBs who will miss this week against New England.
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But that is not going to change how they operate as a team. Kevin Stefanski has built this team to win via the run. Cleveland sits fifth in the NFL in rushing attempts per game (30.3) but is No. 1 in yards per carry (5.3), yards per game (160.2), and rushing TDs (16).
Even when Johnson was the lead back in Week 7, running backs accounted for 28 carries. Establishing a running game is in their DNA. Johnson is a near-lock to see 20 opportunities in Week 10, and that might be the floor.
Johnson is a must-start RB in Week 10 for fantasy
Not only is Johnson a must-start, I believe he is an RB1 this week. He comes in as my RB12 in half-point PPR formats, and volume is a large reason why. I have Johnson around the 22-24 opportunity range. He should be well inside the top five for the position in terms of volume, behind only Jonathan Taylor, Dalvin Cook, Najee Harris, and Christian McCaffrey.
And where those guys are obviously rostered in 100% of leagues, Johnson is still out there in roughly a quarter of leagues.
The Patriots are no pushover defensively but are vulnerable to running backs. They’re No. 20 in points allowed on the season (24.61). Yet, they’re 27th over their last four games (29.33), having faced a gauntlet of Ezekiel Elliott, Austin Ekeler, and McCaffrey. If possible, start Johnson with confidence in Week 10.
