Las Vegas Raiders WR Davante Adams totaled over 1,100 receiving yards and eight touchdowns for a fourth-straight season in 2023, but he is on the wrong side of the age curve and lacks clarity under center.
Should fantasy football managers be confident in a repeat campaign, or is it wiser to get off the Adams investment train before it’s too late?
Davante Adams’ Fantasy Forecast
Even with Jakobi Meyers’ out-producing of his expectations, Adams finished 2023 with more receiving yards than any two of his teammates combined. The team made TE Brock Bowers the 13th overall pick in April, and he’ll see his fair share of opportunities, but I find it hard to believe that he subtracts much from Adams’ statistical bottom line.
Davante Adams TD 🗣️ pic.twitter.com/BPkGQ57ODb
— Fantasy Life (@MBFantasyLife)
The talent of Adams isn’t a question, nor is his role — the only skepticism toward his fantasy output comes from the quarterback position. Sadly, that is out of his control, and it could submarine his standing as an elite option.
“Could,” not “will”.
We’ve seen players like Drake London and Garrett Wilson (two receivers assigned the same type of upside that we are placing on Adams this season) have had their stat lines held in check in past years by well-below-average quarterback play. I’m not suggesting that is likely (Michael Pittman Jr. had a career season last year with Gardner Minshew II and Aidan O’Connell progressed as 2023 wore on), but that outcome has to at least be considered.
Of course, Adams isn’t the only super-talent with concerns like that. Justin Jefferson can be had at a discount compared to years past with Kirk Cousins out of town, and Malik Nabers’ ADP dropped a handful of spots the second the New York Giants selected him.
That said, if you blindly avoid receivers with question marks under center, you miss out on situations where talent wins out — 2023 Mike Evans (79-1,255-13) comes to mind.
Scouting players is important, but it’s just as important to know what sort of roster build fits you best as a manager when it comes to evaluating the type of player you’re interested in. By selecting Adams, you need to spend a second-round pick, and by ADP, that likely means an RB-WR open to your roster.
Know yourself. Are you comfortable with Adams’ risk profile? If so, an RB-WR start is fine.
If the idea of watching Raiders games sends a chill down your spine, you might want to open with a pair of receivers (A.J. Brown, Puka Nacua, and Wilson are among the popular names you could take before calling Adams’ name). You could then address your backfield in Rounds 3-4 (Isiah Pacheco, Rachaad White, James Cook, and Joe Mixon being of interest in this range).
I prefer that second plan. As much as I like the player, Adams is on the wrong side of 30 years old, and with questions at QB, he has a profile I’m generally not investing this heavily in. His nose for the end zone is what has elevated him from great to elite in our game, and that is where the risk comes in (O’Connell last season: 3.5% touchdown rate).
Jason Katz’s Fantasy Insight on Davante Adams
The Raiders have complementary pieces, but Meyers and Bowers aren’t exactly about to steal volume from Adams. Even at 70% of his prime self, Adams is still better than these guys.
As a result of all this, Adams projects out as my WR10 with very little separating him from the WR9 and WR14. His ADP is WR10. There doesn’t appear to be much downside with Adams.
Yet, after very careful thought, and after initially buying a bounce back, I lowered Adams from WR8 to WR13. Simply put, I no longer want him.
How can I reconcile this with projecting him so high? After all, I have him projected for 105 catches for 1,269 yards and 8.7 touchdowns. That comes out to 16.68 ppg, nearly identical to the PFN consensus projections.
However, projections can’t really capture downside. There’s no way to project “done.”
What if Adams is done? I’m not saying he definitely is, nor am I saying that his decline would be precipitous instead of gradual. But that risk is unquestionably there.
