As fantasy football managers head into their fourth matchup of the season, it’s time to get rosters set in stone with the weekend quickly approaching.
For managers tasked to decide between the Chicago Bears running back committee, we’re here to explain why one of these running backs is the best decision to start in Week 4.
Should You Start D’Andre Swift, Roschon Johnson, or Khalil Herbert in Week 4?
The Bears have three main running backs who compete for touches: D’Andre Swift, Roschon Johnson, and Khalil Herbert.
This week, Chicago faces off against the Los Angeles Rams, who come into this game with one of the worst rush defenses, having allowed 531 rushing yards (30th), with an average of 5.1 yards per carry (28th).
While the Bears couldn’t rush against the Indianapolis Colts’ poor rushing defense last week, Week 4 could be different.
In Pro Football Network’s Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s consensus rankings say Swift is the player to start this week. His projected 9.8 points include 35 rushing yards, 2.5 receptions, and 17.5 receiving yards.
While Swift hasn’t had much success this season, his projections come in higher than Johnson (7.3) and Herbert (4.4) across Chicago’s backfield this weekend.
However, when you isolate my rankings, I see Johnson outperforming both Swift and Herbert.
Swift’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
As Chicago’s lead back in Chicago this season following a three-year contract for $24 million he signed in free agency, Swift has been a bit disappointing through three weeks.
Week 1: 10 rushes, 30 rushing yards, 1 target, 0 receptions
Week 2: 14 rushes, 18 rushing yards, 5 targets, 4 receptions, 24 receiving yards
Week 3: 13 rushes, 20 rushing yards, 4 targets, 2 receptions, 22 receiving yards
Swift, through three games, has found a majority of his points coming from receptions, especially in PPR leagues.
And while his performance has been lackluster, head coach Matt Eberflus mentioned that it isn’t solely Swift’s fault for the lack of production.
#Bears HC Matt Eberflus on why D’Andre Swift hasn’t been effective as a runner:
“I think rushing the ball is an everybody thing… It’s not just him.” pic.twitter.com/OT3wobAVqS
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) September 25, 2024
This is important because, while Swift’s numbers have been poor to start the season, Coach Eberflus doesn’t see it as a problem for Swift specifically; rather, it’s a problem for the whole offense.
Now, that doesn’t instill a whole lot of confidence into this offense, especially when running the ball.
A big problem for the Bears’ rushing attack is their lack of blocking. To be able to have an effective rushing attack, the ability to block at a serviceable level is necessary. And through three games this season, Chicago hasn’t been serviceable.
Swift’s biggest struggle is his vision with the ball in his hands. When he gets the ball, there will be a hole the size of a semi-truck. And instead of running through that hole for a modest gain, Swift will oftentimes run into contact.
After coming from a Philadelphia Eagles offensive line last year that could block an arsenal of tanks if it needed to, Swift has come back down to earth with Chicago’s blocking this season.
And while the start/sit tool has Swift as the start this week, it wouldn’t be my choice.
Johnson’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
After a strong Week 3, Johnson has emerged as Chicago’s potential lead back heading into this weekend against the Rams.
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler has the idea that Johnson earned himself extra playing time in Week 4.If that’s the case, expect another strong performance from the second-year running back out of Texas.
ESPN Insider Jeremy Fowler says the Bears plan on giving Roschon Johnson an “extended look” this Sunday against the Rams. 👀
Looks like it’ll be Roschon Johnson time 😤 pic.twitter.com/cRakjbv4Pa
— Bearsszn (@bearssznn) September 25, 2024
Last week, after being held to zero rushes through the first two weeks of the season, Johnson made his debut in Shane Waldron’s offense.
In his first opportunity of the season, Johnson led the backfield. He rushed eight times for 30 yards while hauling in four receptions for an additional 32 yards. So, while he received fewer targets than Swift last week, Johnson did more with his touches.
And with speculation that Chicago will be featuring him more this week, Johnson should be able to turn more snaps into more fantasy points.
Last season, Johnson proved to be a force, showcasing a skill set that featured power as the top characteristic. Considering how poorly the offensive line has played, his ability to power through defenders is an ability that might earn him more snaps throughout the entire season.
Against the Colts, Johnson was one of the best power rushers in the league.
There’s a stat called yards after contact per rush, which essentially just looks at how many yards a player rushed for after coming into contact with a defender. Looking at just last week, Johnson ranked 10th across all running backs, averaging 3.5 yards after contact per rush. This means, statistically, every time Johnson was hit, he’d rush for an additional 3.5 yards.
Considering the traditional ideology of getting three to four yards per play is all an offense needs to keep their unit on the field, Johnson is the perfect running back for that. And against a Rams defense that struggles against the rush, he appears to be the best play of Chicago’s RB trio.
Herbert’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
So far this season, Herbert has been a bit of a forgotten back in Chicago.
Through Weeks 1-3, he’s seen just 21 offensive snaps. Compared to the other two running backs — even with Johnson missing snaps the first two games — Herbert seemingly hasn’t fit into the offensive scheme Waldron’s drawn up.
- Swift: 133 snaps snaps in three games
- Johnson: 33 snaps in one game
- Herbert: 21 snaps in three games
Of the three running backs on this year’s roster, Herbert was the strongest contributor to last season’s league-leading rushing attack. However, that doesn’t seem to matter to Chicago this year, as his usage has been essentially non-existent.
Special play by Khalil Herbert. Justin Fields even tried getting in on the action!pic.twitter.com/CVGIQalLMf
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 14, 2022
And with Johnson’s expected increase in load this week, he’ll be taking snaps from Swift and Herbert, causing both running backs to see the field less.
With less playing time comes fewer opportunities to score fantasy points.
This season hasn’t been great for Herbert in terms of production, either. After totaling 745 all-purpose yards last season, he’s accounted for just 20 scrimmage yards this year. Yet, while his yardage is down, he’s the only running back on the team with a touchdown.
So, if there’s a reason to start Herbert, it’s because he holds a 100% touchdown share among Chicago’s running backs. However, he’d be the last of these three RBs I’d consider starting.
Between his lack of offensive snaps already, and the increase in Johnson’s targets this week, Herbert will likely be a safe bench this week.