Can D’Andre Swift become an elite fantasy football running back as a member of the Chicago Bears? Or is there a reason the former early second-round pick is on his third NFL team in just five seasons?
Should You Select D’Andre Swift at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 65th Overall (RB22)
- 2023 Recap: Swift had a mixed 2023 season with the Philadelphia Eagles, where he started strong but faded in the second half. He averaged 12.5 fantasy points per game and struggled to regain the explosive form he showed during his first two years in Detroit.
- Decline in Usage: Swift saw a significant reduction in his receiving work, with only a 10% target share, the lowest of his career. Philadelphia primarily used him as a two-down grinder, limiting his fantasy ceiling.
- 2024 Outlook: Swift’s move to the Chicago Bears could boost his fantasy value. With Caleb Williams at quarterback, Swift could see an increase in receiving opportunities, which could help him return to RB2 status.
- Role and Competition: Despite the potential upside, Swift faces competition from Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson, particularly in short-yardage and goal-line situations. His role in Chicago’s offense remains uncertain.
- ADP Value: Swift is currently being drafted as the RB22, 65th overall. While this ADP is reasonable, given his potential, his role and usage in Chicago make him a risky pick. He’s ranked as my RB23, reflecting similar concerns.
- Final Verdict: Swift’s ceiling is higher in Chicago, but his floor remains low. While he’s a fine pick in the middle rounds as an RB2 or RB3, he’s not someone to actively target unless he’s the best option available.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for D’Andre Swift
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
46) Lamar Jackson, QB | Baltimore Ravens
47) David Montgomery, RB | Detroit Lions
48) Aaron Jones, RB | Minnesota Vikings
49) Zay Flowers, WR | Baltimore Ravens
50) Tee Higgins, WR | Cincinnati Bengals
51) D’Andre Swift, RB | Chicago Bears
52) Malik Nabers, WR | New York Giants
53) Stefon Diggs, WR | Houston Texans
54) Trey McBride, TE | Arizona Cardinals
55) DK Metcalf, WR | Seattle Seahawks
56) Terry McLaurin, WR | Washington Commanders
D’Andre Swift’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 Fantasy Season
It’s incredible to think that Swift is only 25 years old, given how his career has already taken so many twists and turns.
During his first two seasons, Swift looked like he was strapped to a rocket ship poised to be a perennial RB1. Then, as quickly as his rise happened, the Detroit Lions simply gave up on him.
Last season, Swift got a chance to revive his career with the Philadelphia Eagles, yet things started out looking quite grim. If not for an injury to Kenneth Gainwell, who knows if Swift would ever have gotten a chance. Gainwell did get hurt, though, giving Swift a chance in Week 2. And he ran away with the starting job.
Big week for (D’Andre) Swift 😉 pic.twitter.com/Ej7JmTQAB4
— NFL (@NFL) September 27, 2023
While Swift undoubtedly exceeded expectations last season, let’s not pretend like he came close to resembling the Swift of old (again, strange talking about a 25-year-old this way).
Swift only averaged 12.5 fantasy points per game and really faded (along with the rest of the Eagles’ offense) over the second half of the season. From Week 9 onward, Swift had just two games with double-digit fantasy points.
A big reason Swift lacked a high ceiling in fantasy is his lack of receiving work. I still believe him to be one of the best pass-catching backs in the league, but on the Eagles, due to the combination of Jalen Hurts running the ball and Philadelphia opting for Gainwell on third downs, Swift only saw a 10% target share. It was — by far — the lowest of his career.
It was curious to see the Eagles use Swift mostly as a two-down grinder. He wasn’t that efficient on the ground, and his 19% evaded tackles-per-touch rate was 25th in the NFL. Likewise, his 2.68 yards created per touch was 51st in the league.
Swift was fine, but he certainly didn’t resemble the explosive playmaker he was over his first two years in Detroit.
Is Swift a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
It’s wild to think that a move from Philadelphia to Chicago could increase a player’s fantasy upside. Yet, that’s where we are with Swift.
Caleb Williams may not be better than Hurts…yet. However, he undoubtedly will give Swift more opportunities as a pass catcher.
Williams has gone on record saying he doesn’t like to run unless he has to. He’s nowhere near the rusher Hurts is. That means more dropbacks resulting in passes and not scrambles or designed rushes.
While Swift’s ceiling is objectively higher, his floor remains as low as ever.
Chicago’s offense has several weapons. Given what they’ve done at wide receiver — trading for DJ Moore last year, Keenan Allen this year, and drafting Rome Odunze with a top-10 pick — it’s hard to imagine this being an offense that leans on its running game.
The improved offense, combined with the lack of the Tush Push, increases Swift’s touchdown potential. However, there’s no guarantee he’ll be the goal-line back.
Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson both exist. Swift may be better than both of them, but that doesn’t mean the coaches necessarily want to expose him to hits in short yardage.
The hope is Chicago’s offense will enable Swift to be more efficient on fewer touches. He doesn’t need 15 carries and seven targets a game. Give him 10-12 carries and 4-6 targets, and that’s plenty for him to produce RB2 numbers.
Swift is going off the board as the RB21, No. 64 overall. I’m only slightly lower on him, ranking him as my RB23.
I would be lying if I said I was excited to draft Swift. But given how cheap running backs are, Swift goes during a part of the draft where many fantasy managers will be looking for their RB2 or RB3. If Swift is the best one remaining, I’m fine with drafting him. But he’s not a player I’m actively targeting.