Buffalo Bills TE Dalton Kincaid had more down weeks than up during his rookie season, but the skills he flashed were that of an asset at the position for years to come. Kincaid was working alongside Dawson Knox for the majority of the season, and that’ll be the case again, though there’s no denying that his role developed as 2023 wore on.
After scoring in the Wild Card win over the Pittsburgh Steelers and leading the Bills in receiving yards in the loss the next week against the Kansas City Chiefs (caught all five targets while his teammates caught just 61.8% of their looks), Kincaid enters 2024 with borderline elite fantasy football expectations.
Should you be willing to pay Kincaid’s asking price now, given the lack of proven pass catchers on Buffalo’s roster?
Dalton Kincaid’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
Kincaid’s array of skills made him an intriguing option this time last season and has managers salivating over his potential in his second season. Yes, Knox remains on the roster and will be annoying at times, but Kincaid has a firmer hold on this job than he did 12 months ago, fueling optimism that he could make a leap similar to how Trey McBride did down the stretch for the Arizona Cardinals in 2023.
Two big plays for Dalton Kincaid on what amounted to improvisation with Allen yesterday. One was the TD. This is the other one – watch Allen signal for Kincaid to turn upfield and then he shoots a laser beam to the sideline pic.twitter.com/J2BPwBrLBq
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) October 27, 2023
It could happen, no doubt. As a rookie, Kincaid hauled in 73 passes, and Buffalo lost 241 targets (44.2% of the team’s total in 2023) via the Stefon Diggs trade to the Houston Texans and Gabe Davis being signed by the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Where Kincaid stands in the hierarchy of this Josh Allen-led passing attack is not a question, but how impactful that role might be.
After Joe Brady took over in Week 11 last season, Buffalo’s pass rate over expectation plummeted by 5.4 percentage points. I was willing to write that off as the result of wanting to simplify a scheme during a midseason change in role. But by letting Diggs and Davis walk, I’m not so sure anymore.
We’re all nervous about the Los Angeles Chargers’ pass volume after they let their top two pass catchers walk despite having a franchise quarterback on the roster. Why wouldn’t similar logic apply here?
The Chiefs won a Super Bowl last season without an alpha receiver, which seems to be the game plan for both the Bills and Chargers, two offenses that could see their leading receiver be a rookie (just like the 2023 Chiefs).
Will it work for Buffalo? Only time will tell on that front. Kincaid’s increased role is nice, but if the overall volume of the offense tanks, the statistical growth could be limited.
At this moment, the second-year star is being drafted in the fifth round as the TE5 and in the same tier as Mark Andrews.
Give me Andrews. We know Todd Monken wants to get creative in Baltimore, and we know what Andrews is.
I’d take Kincaid in a dynasty setting without much thought, but in the scope of 2024, Andrews’ floor/ceiling profile is more appealing to me than that of Kincaid’s, an island I’m willing to stand on as we prepare for this season to kickoff.
Jason Katz’s Fantasy Analysis for Dalton Kincaid
In my projections, Kincaid is projected to take a big step forward, catching 86 passes for 819 yards and 8.1 touchdowns. That comes out to 12.75 fantasy points per game. Those are fine numbers for a tight end, but they’re not so great that you’d want to pass up a WR or an RB to take him at his ADP.
For me to truly care about a tight end, he needs to score 14+ ppg. That’s undoubtedly within Kincaid’s realistic range of outcomes. But in a Bills offense that is going to be more run-heavy than ever, I just don’t see Kincaid becoming Allen’s Travis Kelce.
Curtis Samuel, Keon Coleman, and Khalil Shakir are not elite receivers. They’re also far from terrible and will collectively eat into Kincaid’s volume.
Kincaid is 25 years old, so we undoubtedly haven’t yet seen his best season. There is certainly a world where he finishes as a difference-making TE, inside the top three. If you want to draft him, I wouldn’t make some big protest against it.
With that said, I don’t like drafting tight ends in the area in which Kincaid goes. I either want a surefire elite one or to completely punt the position. As a result, Kincaid is not someone I’m looking to draft this season.