Dallas Goedert spent three years living in Zach Ertz’s shadow. After Philadelphia traded Ertz to Arizona last season, Goedert finally has the Eagles’ TE1 job to himself. Now entering his prime, how should dynasty fantasy football managers value Goedert in 2022 and beyond?
Dallas Goedert’s dynasty profile for 2022
Evaluating tight ends is always a bit trickier than running backs and wide receivers. When it comes to tight ends, it’s not enough for a player to be one of the best at his position — he also has to be a difference-maker.
Travis Kelce has been the dynasty TE1 for the last half-decade. But being the best doesn’t mean the same thing every season. From 2018-2020, Kelce finished as the overall TE1 in fantasy points per game (minimum eight games played). He averaged 18.4 ppg in 2018, 15.9 in 2019, and 20.9 in 2020. Those are all very different seasons. You can’t just say Kelce was the best tight end in fantasy and convey how well he performed.
Ever since the Eagles drafted him in 2018, Goedert has been trapped behind Ertz. Goedert is a massive human at 6’5″, 256 pounds, and an incredible athlete with upper percentile speed, burst, and agility. I’ve always been a fan of Goedert and have been patiently (very patiently) waiting for him to get his opportunity.
With Ertz finally gone, Goedert enters the 2022 season as the clear starting tight end for the Eagles for the first time in his career. Is this the year he takes a leap forward? What does Goedert’s starter status mean for his dynasty value going forward?
Fantasy projection for Goedert
Since 2019, Goedert has been a consistent back-end TE1. He averaged 9.6 ppg in 2019, 10.6 ppg in 2020, and 11 ppg in 2021. Throughout his career, Goedert has played 40 games with Ertz and 15 games without him. With Ertz, Goedert averaged just 8.7 ppg. Without him, Goedert averaged 11.85 ppg.
The move to Goedert has been in the works for years now. His target share has increased every year of his career. Last season, it was 18.6%. Although this only led to 5.1 targets per game, there’s still room for overall growth. In 2021, Goedert averaged 1.5 more targets per game after Ertz was traded.
The Eagles will undoubtedly draft a wide receiver, but Goedert should remain firmly in second on the team’s target totem pole. Last season, Goedert only totaled 76 targets, but he was second on the team behind DeVonta Smith. Whoever the Eagles draft can steal targets from Quez Watkins and Jalen Reagor — not Goedert.
If Goedert can play a full season, I expect him to surpass 100 targets. Jalen Hurts’ elite rushing ability lowers Goedert’s overall ceiling as it takes away potential targets, but this remains a consolidated passing game. There’s Smith, Goedert, and probably a rookie. That’s it. Fantasy managers should expect Goedert to continue his upward trajectory and build upon averages that have increased every year of his career.
What is Goedert’s future beyond 2022?
Dynasty managers need not concern themselves with Goedert’s long-term stability. He is 27 years old and just entering his prime. Furthermore, the Eagles have him signed through 2027. Goedert isn’t going anywhere for a while.
The only potential situation change will be if Hurts is not the Eagles’ answer at quarterback. Even if that happens, Goedert is plenty young, and dynasty managers can afford to wait for the Eagles to figure it out.
What can fantasy managers expect from Goedert?
Goedert is a TE1 in 2022. The question is, how high can he get? He finished as the TE22 as a rookie, the TE11 as a sophomore, the TE9 in his third season, and the TE8 in his fourth season. There’s a clear upward trajectory here.
Fantasy managers can reasonably view Goedert’s 2021 performance as his floor. This is a very talented player who led all tight ends in yards per target and yards per route run last season.
The Eagles’ willingness to use Goedert downfield only raises his ceiling. His 8.8 average depth of target was eighth amongst tight ends, which is quite impressive for a man his size. If Goedert can improve in the TD department (he’s never scored more than 5 in a season), we could be looking at a 13-14 ppg player.
Dynasty managers with Goedert should prioritize hanging onto him. He’s not yet a difference-maker at the position, but he should be better than a random back-end TE1. While he won’t be so much better that he can win your matchups by himself, he’s also not perceived that way, which renders trading him likely not worth it. As always, though, any player is worth trading away or trading for if the value is there.