The Dallas Cowboys are 1-2, with their only win coming against a Cleveland Browns team with the worst offense in EPA (expected points added) in the league. The New York Giants are also 1-2, with their only win coming against this terrible Browns offense.
Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Sept. 25, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated.
- Spread
Cowboys -5.5 - Moneyline
Cowboys (-245); Giants (+200) - Over/Under
45.5 total points - Game Time
8:15 p.m. ET - Location
MetLife Stadium
Cowboys vs. Giants Preview and Prediction
In my Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills preview, I mentioned target concentration as an example of how impressive Josh Allen has been. After three weeks, the Cowboys now have the lowest number, meaning they distribute the ball most evenly to their weapons on offense. Normally, you would assume this is a negative thing for the Cowboys because they have an alpha wide receiver in CeeDee Lamb that they should be feeding the ball.
Per Tru Media, of 143 players with over 50 routes run this year, Lamb ranks 119th in EPA on his targets. He is still an incredible wideout, ranking 32nd in yards per route run but this just shows that teams are scheming up ways to allow Lamb to eat but still limiting the Cowboys’ offense as a whole.
The Giants’ defense ranks 13th against the pass and 21st against the run in EPA, but this comes with a caveat of facing the Browns’ offense. When looking at how their defense performed against the Minnesota Vikings and Washington Commanders, they ranked 28th against the pass and 26th against the run.
One thing the Giants’ defense does well is get pressure, ranking seventh in the league in pressure generated per dropback. Dak Prescott has been as good as he typically is against pressure this season, ranking seventh among 31 quarterbacks with over 50 attempts.
30,000 and counting for QB1 👏
Congrats on the career milestone!#DallasCowboys | @FastTwitchDrink pic.twitter.com/VcvicqhT22
— Dallas Cowboys (@dallascowboys) September 23, 2024
The key to beating the Cowboys this season has been running the ball. The Cowboys are ranked dead last in defensive rush EPA, with over double the amount lost in EPA (5.77) compared to the next lowest (Rams, 2.25 lost).
The offenses that did this to the Cowboys just so happened to be the No. 1 rushing offense (Baltimore Ravens) and the No. 6 unit (New Orleans Saints). The Giants do not have this capability, as they rank 26th in rushing EPA and aren’t particularly explosive or consistent while ranking 24th in runs of 10+ yards and 16th in rushing success rate.
The Cowboys should win this game because their weaknesses can’t be exploited by this Giants’ offense. With odds of -245, DraftKings has the Cowboys’ implied probability of winning at 71.01% and their projected advantage at 5.5 points.
Neither of these are enticing and provide any value to me, as both teams look sloppy and it’s hard to tell what will happen. With that being said, I still think the Cowboys will win.
My pick: Cowboys ML (-245)