Our Dallas Cowboys vs. Tennessee Titans prediction takes a look at the Week 17 matchup that surprisingly matters very little in the way of playoff implications. Let’s dive into the current NFL betting odds, key storylines to watch, and make a prediction for the game. Note that all odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday, Dec. 26.
Cowboys vs. Titans Odds
- Spread
Cowboys -9.5 - Moneyline
Cowboys -425, Titans +340 - Over/Under
44.5 points
Cowboys vs. Titans Prediction
It’s been a rocky season for the Cowboys. This is a team that should be in the driver’s seat for the No. 1 overall seed, given Jalen Hurts’ shoulder injury. Instead, two epic fourth-quarter collapses against the Packers and Jaguars have them hoping the Eagles lose out while they win out to steal the NFC East crown and the top seed in the NFC.
While the Cowboys are already locked into the postseason, the same cannot be said for their Week 17 opponent.
After an 0-2 start, the Titans were sitting pretty atop the underwhelming AFC South following seven wins in their next eight games. Since then, it’s all come crashing down. The Titans have lost five straight and are now underdogs to win the division and make the playoffs.
MORE: NFL Playoff Picture Week 17
Amidst this five-game skid, the Titans added injury to insult, losing starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill for the season. While there’s a chance he could return if the team makes the playoffs, that’s not going to help them get there. As a result, the Titans are forced to roll with raw rookie Malik Willis.
Willis’ job is mainly to turn around and stuff the ball into the chest of Derrick Henry. That works when the Titans have a lead. When they need to buckle up and lead a two-minute drill to win a game late, as we saw last week, Willis just isn’t ready. He’s not an NFL-caliber passer at this point in his career.
The last time I remember something like this happening was the 2011 Cowboys. They had a Week 16 game against the Eagles that really didn’t matter at all, as their Week 17 game against the Giants was for the division. Tony Romo banged his hand early in the game, and the team just decided to hold him out.
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Similarly, the Titans will play the Jaguars in Week 18 for the NFC South crown. There is an extremely unlikely, sub-1% probability series of outcomes where the Titans could beat the Cowboys, lose to the Jaguars, and backdoor the No. 7 seed. I’m not sure if Tennessee is aware of this, or if they care.
As a result, the impact of the Titans potentially beating the Cowboys is minuscule, at best, and meaningless, at worst. Head coach Mike Vrabel surely has his eyes set on Jacksonville next week.
Willis is going to start regardless, as the live-game action can only help him improve. However, it wouldn’t surprise me if guys like Henry, Robert Woods, and key defensive players were held out to rest to up for the all-important Week 18 showdown.
This game being on a short week this late in the season only increases the chances of this happening. In fact, I would be surprised if any key starters played outside of rookies like Willis and Treylon Burks.
On the other side, Dallas has every incentive to try this week. If Hurts doesn’t play, there’s at least a plausible chance the Eagles lose to the Saints. A Cowboys win would give them a chance to steal the division and the top seed in Week 18. Given that Dallas plays on Thursday and won’t know Hurts’ status or how the Eagles will approach their Week 17 game, there’s no chance they rest starters.
We could find ourselves in a situation where a highly motivated Cowboys team is playing the Titans’ backups. Simply put, this could get ugly.
It’s tough to make a score prediction or a betting suggestion without clarity on what the Titans will do. I am generally averse to laying more than a touchdown on the road (or in general).
If I knew the Titans were going to play this game straight up, I would take the 9.5 points. But my spidey senses are telling me that Tennessee isn’t going to try, allowing Dallas to just run them over as they prepare for Jacksonville in Week 18.
Cowboys vs. Titans Prediction
Cowboys 31, Titans 7
