Happy Thanksgiving! If you’re planning to bet on Week 12 NFL player props for the Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants Thursday matchup, then you’ve come to the right place.
We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated and which could fall short of expectations. All prop bets are based on DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, or FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000.
Top Cowboys vs. Giants Player Props To Target
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
These prop bets are based on my strong belief that Dallas will win by 20+ points against the overachieving Giants. I know: it sounds strange dismissing a 7-3 team. But after Thursday’s game, I think it will make sense.
Dak Prescott Player Props
At times, he’s one of the best QBs in the game. Two years ago before getting knocked out for the season, he arguably was the best in the game, posting stats that would make Patrick Mahomes blush.
In the belief the Cowboys will hang 30+ on the Giants, I’m bullish about Dak Prescott gelling with his incredible playmakers, overpowering an opponent that should have trouble sustaining drives, leading to an overworked defense.
- Passing yards over 242.5
(-114) — FanDuel - Passing touchdowns over 1.5
(-158) — FanDuel - Interception under 0.5
(-190) — DraftKings
Ezekiel Elliott Player Props
In a blowout victory, it wouldn’t make much sense to overwork a team’s No. 1 RB. But these days, those honors go to Tony Pollard, who’s played far better than his backfield teammate for nearly two years.
I’m anticipating Elliott getting more touches today, as the team capitalizes on productive reps for an often struggling back they’ll need in the playoffs. Pollard has never profiled as a bell cow. This backfield hums when both guys are getting 14+ touches.
The opposing Giants are surrendering the NFL’s second-most yards per carry (5.3). This has the makings of a get-right game for a veteran RB who no longer needs to get 100 yards to be productive. 50 will do.
- Rushing yards over 43.5
(-114) — FanDuel
CeeDee Lamb Player Props
If we’re betting on Prescott to exceed expectations, then it’s sensible to bet on his No. 1 receiver to exceed expectations. No. 1 wideouts have roasted the Giants this season. Last weekend, Amon-Ra St. Brown earned a 7-76-0 receiving line. Earlier, Christian Kirk hit 7-96-0. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett combined for 11-118-2.
And in their previous matchup against the G-Men, Cooper Rush connected with CeeDee Lamb for a sterling 8-87-1 line.
Lamb is primed for a great performance, or at minimum a very good one. Either way, his prop line seems too low to ignore.
- Receptions over 5.5
(-105) — BetMGM - Receiving yards over 69.5
(-115) — BetMGM
Michael Gallup Player Props
A former 1,000-yard receiver, Michael Gallup has eclipsed 44 receiving yards only once this season. I drafted him in my fantasy league and finally dropped him a few weeks ago. My opponent this week is starting him against me. I’m nervous.
Why? Because Gallup should have his best showing of the season. The Cowboy are incentivized to get him going. Noah Brown is a competent No. 3, but lacks the upside to be a true No. 2.
Gallup fits the mold. He’s been underutilized most of the year while working his way back from 2021’s season-ending injury. He should comfortably outperform expectations.
- Receptions over 3.5
(+120) — DraftKings - Receiving yards over 38.5
(-114) — FanDuel
Daniel Jones Player Props
The Cowboys are yielding 174.5 passing yards per game. That’s tops in the league. The Giants are averaging 177.3. That’s 28th in the league.
Wan’Dale Robinson’s torn ACL further depletes a receiving corps comprised primarily of preseason practice-squad talent and one of the most overpaid receivers in league history (Kenny Golladay).
If this game gets out of hand by the third quarter, we shouldn’t be surprised if New York calls it a day and sends in the subs. Even if the Giants’ D does surprisingly well, Dallas’s defense is poised to keep Jones under 150 yards.
- Passing yards under 194.5
(-120) — BetMGM
Saquon Barkley Player Props
Finally, a contender for Comeback Player of the Year. Barkley has practically carried his offense on his back. Daniel Jones’s career prospects are brighter because of Barkley’s impact on opposing defenses, opening passing lanes and generating scoring opportunities.
Last weekend, Detroit’s game plan was to bottle up Barkley. It worked. Of course, it’s easier said than done. But the Cowboys have the personnel to replicate this strategy, forcing Jones to win through the air (unlikely). Barkley’s outlook looks rough.
- Rushing yards under 74.5
(-114) — FanDuel