The Dallas Cowboys (6-9) travel to MetLife Stadium in New York to face the Giants (5-10) this weekend, with a point spread of (-2) in favor of the Cowboys. Dallas is riding a three-game winning streak, while the Giants have lost three games in a row heading into Week 17. This game winner will be the NFC East champion with a Washington loss to the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday Night Football. Can we make any money off of this mostly lackluster matchup? Let’s find out.
Cowboys vs. Giants spread bets: Lean the road favorite or home underdog?
The Cowboys and Giants have been on two vastly different trajectories throughout the season. At this time three weeks ago, the Cowboys season seemed all but lost throughout most of the year. They lost Dak Prescott to an injury that brought on a myriad of QBs. Amidst the losing, the team seemingly found it in themselves to quit on the season.
However, a three-game win streak has erased all of that. The Cowboys now find themselves taking on the Giants as two-point favorites against the spread, with a chance to become NFC East champions.
The Giants downward trajectory
While New York was the talk of the town after their upset victory over the Seattle Seahawks, they have since fallen from grace. The offense has been inept (26 points in the three losses) while the defense can only do so much. Despite all of that, however, they can still make the playoffs with a win and some help.
Yards per play past three weeks
This three-game losing streak for the Giants has been pitiful. During this stint, New York has a (-1.4) yards per play (YPP) differential. That would equate to them being seven points worse than an average team on a neutral field. Their season-long figure isn’t great either (-0.6, -3 spread value), which makes this losing streak all the more “impressive.”
Daniel Jones will start this game. However, considering he was completely immobile against the Baltimore Ravens, McCoy might be a better option for the Giants. There’s too much unknown with Jones to bet the Giants on the spread against the Cowboys.
While the last three weeks have been all doom and gloom for the Giants, it’s all rainbows and unicorns for the Cowboys. The Cowboys have a +0.6 YPP differential, rank first in points per play (according to Team Rankings), and have won three games in a row. Their YPP metrics are buoyed by two different standout performances from both units. The offense averaged 7.8 YPP against Philadelphia, while the defense surrendered 4.4 YPP to the Bengals three weeks ago.
Cowboys vs. Giants spread bets
I know it’s a small sample, but I like what I’ve seen from Dallas. After getting acclimated to Andy Dalton, who can be a functional QB in this league, this team seems to have life. Who James Bradberry covers doesn’t matter, as Dallas has two other guys they can feature. And if Jones can’t run like he usually can, the defense should generate some pressure and stall some New York drives.
I’m taking the Cowboys on the point spread (-2) against the Giants. Hopefully, I’m not overreacting too much to a recent small sample. These teams, however, are on the complete opposite ends of the spectrum right now. If you don’t want to bet this game before kickoff but happen to be watching it, look for Jones’ mobility early on. If you see him scrambling around, escaping the pocket, etc., the over could be a good look.
Michael Gallup leads the team in target share (22.17% according to FTN Daily) since Dalton returned in Week 11. His receiving yards prop (48.5) is lower than both CeeDee Lamb (52.5) and Amari Cooper (53.5). His touchdown odds also yield value. Considering the Giants rank 12th-worst in consistency score against WR’s, I’ll be taking the over on his receiving yards myself, and possibly his TD prop.
Daniel Jones passing props have some lucrative prices. His passing yards prop is set at (209.5), while his over 1.5 passing touchdowns prop is priced at (+142). If you’d instead attack the player props over the Cowboys and Giants game spread, I think Jones and Gallup are worth a look.